Transboundary Air Pollution

Badar Ghauri, Director, SUPARCO

1

Whos Air Do We Breathe?

Introduction
Pollution is a global problem There are no boundaries Satellite Remote Sensing is the only way to map

global distribution of air pollution

This talk will highlight various tools available to

track global/Transboundary pollution

Regional and intercontinental aerosol pollution will

be discussed

Country-to-country source-receptor matrix

The columns represent the source country while the rows represent the receptor country. Shown is the total annual sulfur deposition expressed in tones S/yr
Source/ Receptor Bangladesh 1.77E+04 Bangladesh 3.83E+02 Bhutan 1.58E+04 India 3.22E+02 Nepal 0.00E+00 Pakistan 6.72E+00 Sri Lanka 4.99E-07 2.97E+03 5.70E-01 6.63E-01 8.15E+03 3.46E-09 1.73E+04 3.97E+00 1.16E+05 0.00E+00 1.78E+00 4.06E+04 2.21E+04 1.04E+03 1.92E-20 7.14E+01 1.06E+06 5.26E+03 1.88E+04 5.49E+02 1.63E+02 8.14E+03 4.37E+02 8.65E+01 5.57E-18 Bhutan 1.27E+00 India 1.64E+04 Nepal 1.77E+02 Pakistan 2.30E+02 4.34E-03 Sri Lanka

Source: Foell et.al, December, 1995

(Final report submitted to The World Bank)
8

Countries with Renewable Energy Targets in the Region

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Integration of Monitoring data on a sub-regional basis
Adequacy of data compiled

Pollutants of concern (additional pollutants) SOx, NOx, Ozone, etc (NOx shows significant increase) QA/QC issues

Compatibility of information collected

Common monitoring protocol (such as EANET technical manual) Adequacy of monitoring network (strengthening in terms of no. of

stations/ parameters, frequency)

National baseline studies

10

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Analysis and refinement of National emission inventories
Comparison of methodologies used for different pollutants Aim for a common approach
Use of emission factors

First preference: Local emission factors for various activities Else use emission factors such as from WB rapid emission inventory Undertake emission factors development (where ever deemed necessary)

Subsequent refinements/ updating of emission inventories

Transparency in the development of inventory

Capacity Building

11

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Strengthening of regional modeling capabilities
Identification of appropriate tools/ models Model acceptability and ownership - focal centre Integrated assessment model - effects based approach Input data compilation -

emissions/meteorology/database on critical loads

Validation: model prediction vs observed data
Capacity Building

12

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution Strategies to minimize air pollution

Regional cooperation in cleaner energy

sources (hydel, alternative energies)

Fuel quality improvement (eg., reduced S in

diesel)

Improvement in energy efficiency Sharing of information and cooperation in

adoption of clean process technologies as well as EOP control technologies

13

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Studies on the impact assessment

Damage to human health

Impacts on crop productivity, forests, etc Related economic analysis These would assist in formulating

appropriate policy response

14

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Stakeholder involvement and information dissemination

Involve relevant stakeholders

Industry, NGOs, research institutes, media

Dissemination of tools, methodologies, and data Information sharing

15

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution Policy issues

Financial assistance for tackling TAP: Multilateral (UNEP/SACEP), National funds, others Scientific process to aid policy making : Leading to signing of Agreement/ Protocol

16

Regional Cooperation
Intergovernmental meeting, stakeholders meeting cum coordination meeting
Participating countries should initiate the process of understanding issues arising from TAP

Air pollution related initiatives in South Asia need to be encouraged to participate

National Advisory Committee and National Stakeholders should coordinate activities at the national and international levels

17 Male Declaration

Male declaration on control & prevention of air pollution & its likely transboundary effects
Declaration approved on April 22, 1998

Aims: intergovernmental cooperation to address TAP and consequential impacts

Sets an institutional framework linking scientific research and policy formulation To draw up and implement national and regional action plan and protocols based on fuller understanding of TAP India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives and Iran
18

Male Declaration
Development March 1998: Policy Dialogue April 1998: Adoption of the Declaration
Implementation Phase I: Awareness and preparation of the baseline information Phase II: Local capacity development for monitoring and analysis Member states

Iran

Bhutan

Pakistan

Nepal

India

Bangladesh

Maldives

Sri Lanka
19

Objectives

(April 1998)

Strengthen the regional cooperation and stakeholders participation under the Mal Declaration; Strengthen the capacity building programmes initiated Enhance the capacity of NIAs on emission inventory development and Integrated Assessment Modeling Enhance the analytical and impact assessment capability at the national level through integration of findings from local pollution studies and conducting assessment studies; Provide decision support information for policy formulation and air pollution prevention ; Raise awareness for action through targeted dissemination
20 Male Declaration

21

22

23

Satellite Measurement Capability

Aqua Terra

24

25

Aerosol Optical Thickness

Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) is the degree to which aerosols prevent the transmission of light. Aerosol Optical Thickness also referred to as optical depth or optical thickness depends upon the physical constitution, the form and concentration of aerosols. The transmissivity, which is the ratio of amount of solar radiation incident on the surface of the earth to the amount of solar radiation incident at the top of the atmosphere, has a value between 0 and 1, is an indication of Aerosol optical thickness. The smaller the transmissivity, the larger the aerosol optical thickness. When the transmissivity is 0 the atmosphere is perfectly opaque, and when the transmissivity is 1 the atmosphere is perfectly transparent.
26

From AOT to Air Quality

Using satellite AOT to assess air quality categories
Index Values 0-50 51-100 Category Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy Cautionary Statements 0-15.4 Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion PM2.5 (ug/m3) 0-54 15.5-40.4 55-154 PM10 (ug/m3)

101-150

Sensitive groups should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion

Sensitive groups should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion; everyone else should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion Sensitive groups should avoid all physical activity outdoors; everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

40.5-65.4

155-254

151-200

65.5-150.4

255-354

201-300

Very Unhealth y

150.5-250.4

355-424
27

Case Study 1:

Northern India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh Air Quality Event

28

Map of the Air Quality Event Region

Northern India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh
(http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/lgcolor/incolor.htm)

Region of Air Quality Event

29

MODIS-Aqua True Color Image

Northern India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh February 5, 2006
(http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2006036-0205)

30

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Image

Northern India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh
(Prepared by Battelle from MODIS-Aqua data using ArcView GIS processing software)

The AOD scale in this image is similar to the U.S. EPA Air Quality Index (AQI) scale, such that red-colored regions indicate unhealthy air.

31

True Color and AOD Images Available on the Internet True Color Images
MODIS instrument: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/

Click on region of interest. Click on the display alternate dates available for this subset link. Select date of interest (dates are in Julian date format). Repeat for all overlapping regions of interest.

True Color and AOD Images

MODIS instrument: http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/browse_images/l2_browser.html

Select Terra or Aqua satellite Select appropriate month, day, and year. Select parameter from pull-down menu; RGB = true color images Click the box next to Aerosol Optical Thickness over land to view aerosol images.

Parasol satellite: http://www-icare.univ-lille1.fr/parasol/browse/

AOD Images
OMI instrument: http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/aerosols_v8.html

Scroll to the bottom of the page to select images. Select global image from Choose output pull-down menu. Select OMI: 8/17/2004 Present from coverage satellite pull-down menu. Select appropriate Date to be studied.

32

Meteorological Information Available on the Internet

Hourly Weather Observations
winds, visibility, etc.) Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/ Type India in the box at the top of the page, and hit enter. Scroll down to the list of cities and click on Patna. Select the date of interest under History and Almanac. Repeat for Lahore Pakistan Repeat for Kolkata (Calcutta), India. Repeat for Dhaka Bangladesh.

(temperature,

33

Ground-Based Particulate Measurements

Indian National Air Quality Monitoring Programme (NAMP)
Central Pollution Control Board: http://www.cpcb.nic.in/index.php
Click on Air in the menu on the left side of the page. Learn about Indian air quality monitoring by clicking on the different links in the Air section. Currently, no data are archived for 2006, but you can get an idea of the trends in Indian air quality.

Nepal Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology

Air Quality Monitoring Results: http://www.ncit.gov.np/pollution/pollution.php
24-hour average PM10 concentrations in mg m-3 for 6 sites in Nepal Click on General Search in menu on right-hand side of screen to search archived data.

Pak EPA Environmental Monitoring Program (EMS)

34

 Long-Range Transportation of Particulate

Matter (PM) and Trajectory

PM10 and PM2.5 can travel over 100 to 1000

kilometers downwind depending on the meteorological condition

This long-range transported PM always mixes

with the local emissions and affects ambient air PM10 and PM2.5 levels

35

What is a trajectory?
A trajectory is the time integration of the position of a

parcel of air as it is transported by the wind.

The

parcel's passive transport by the wind is computed/reconstructed by the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model where the velocity vectors used are interpolated in both space and time. (Draxler, R.R. and Rolph, G.D., 2003) be integrated both forward and backward in time

Trajectories may

36

HYSPLIT Back Trajectory

Backward trajectories are commonly used to identify

air pollution source regions and specific sources by back computation starting from the receptor

This long-range transported PM always mixes with the

local emissions and affects ambient air PM10 and PM2.5 levels

37

Sources of Satellite Data and Imagery

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) description: http://modisatmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/ MODIS Rapid Response System: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/ MODIS direct broadcast site: http://eosdb.ssec.wisc.edu/modisdirect/

MODIS Level 2 LAADS data browser: http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/browse_images/l2_browser.html

The Smog Blog: http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/ NASA Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ NASA Visible Earth: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/ NASA Giovanni: http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/techlab/giovanni European Space Agency (ESA) Observing the Earth: http://www.esa.int/esaEO/index.html Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service (European): http://www.temis.nl/ Satellite Products for Europe (German Remote Sensing Data Center): http://www.dlr.de/caf/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2683/4049_read-6052/ India Meteorological Department Satellite Images and Products (INSAT satellite): http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insat.htm EUMETSAT Image Gallery (Europe and Africa): http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image_Gallery/Real-time_Images/index.htm
42

True color 05-02-2006

43

AOT, 05-02-2006

44

MODIS Terra 28-01-2007

45

Transboundary fog
In winter season widespread fog and often thick fog occurs

in eastern India and northeastern Pakistan (especially the Lahore Region)

The wide spread nature of the fog can be seen using

remote sensing satellite data

Fog extends approximately an area of 1500-2000 sq.km

extending from eastern India to northeastern Pakistan.

During the fog visibility reduces to ~100 m.

47

Transboundary fog
India

ranks emissions

fourth

among

countries

producing

SO2

This part is the most industrialized part of subcontinent During winter this region is generally in the influence of

high pressure system resulting in dry seasons and low wind speeds

Analysis of the aerosols samples were performed in 1999

onwards

48

PAKISTAN

INDIA

METEOSAT IMAGE SHOWING FOG OVER INDIA AND NORTHERN PAKISTAN

49

Major Thermal Power Plants in India

According to Central Electricity Authority of India, there are 83 coal fired thermal power plants

50 50

51

Experimental Methods
The aerosol samples are collected on Whatman 41 filter

papers using high volume samplers. and from 8 PM to 8 A.M

The samples are collected at Lahore from 8 A.M to 8 PM The flow rate was controlled

controller at a rate of 0.7 m3/min.

with Sieria mass flow

An aliquot of the filter was extracted in double distilled

deionized water and analyzed for SO42- NO3- by ionchromatograph using a Dionex Model 500 equipped with Peaknet software

52

60

40 20 0
25 15 5

Sb x 103 Sb x 103

As x 103

14
10 6 50

Se x 103

NO3-

35 20 100 70
40 10 1 2 3 4

SO42-

No. of Days Concentrations in ug/m3 of SO42- , NO3- , Se, As, and Sb in 12 hour samples at Lahore, Pakistan.

53

Fog

Clear Fog SO4-2/Se

Se x 103

Concentration g/m3

As x 103

NO3-

SO4-2

No. of Days

Concentrations in ug/m3 of SO4 2, NO3-, Se and SO4- 2/Se ratios in 54 aerosol samples at Lahore, Pakistan.

The SO4-2 / Se ratios were suggestive of long-range transport from several hundred kms away in neighbouring India. Such high concentrations pose a serious health risk and require a more detailed study on long-term basis.

55

The SO4-2 concentration varied from 7.29 ug/m3 to 41.89 ug/m3 with an average 18.98 ug/m3 for the period. Se concentration varied from below the detection limit (< 1.58 ng/m3) to 5.90 ng/m3, with a mean of 3.44 ng/m3. The high SO4-2 (72 ug/m3) and Se (12.72 ng/m3) were also observed in samples.

56

WHAT IS BLACK CARBON

It is graphitic, It is insoluble in water Chemically Inert Absorbs Sunlight Absorbs Moisture in presence of Sulfates

Concentrations (ug/m3) of Black Carbon in Metropolitan Areas

CITY YEAR BLACK CARBON

Beijing
Shanghai

1999-2000
1999-2000

8.5
6.0

Hong Kong
Tokyo Mumbai Dhaka Lahore Mexico City New York London Paris

1998-2002
1998-1999 1999 2001 2005 1997 2002 1995 1984-85

4.2
5.4 12.6 22 17.6 5.8 <2 2.3 3.8

BC (mg/m3)
20000 40000 60000 80000

0
0:00 0:55 1:50

BC

2:45 3:55 4:50 5:45 6:55 7:50 8:50 10:00 10:55 11:50 12:45 13:40 14:35 15:45 16:40 17:35 19:40 22:20 0:10 2:00 2:55 4:45 5:40 6:50 7:45 8:55

OC

Concentrations(ug/m3)of Black Carbon in Lahore on Dec., 6-7, 2005

Time

Health effects of airborne particles

Concentrations(ug/m3) of Ozone in Lahore on Dec., 6-7, 2005

60 Ozone

Ozone (ppbv)

40

20

0 0:03:13 2:58:13 5:53:13 8:48:13 12:55:25 15:50:25 18:45:25 21:40:25 0:35:25 3:30:25 6:25:25

Time

EPA PMF
(Positive Matrix Factorization)

69

 The richness of ambient air quality data sets has been

increasing in the recent years

More elements being measured

Elements being stratified by particle size

Sampling duration decreases

Receptor model

An alternative for pollutant source identification contributing to the observed chemical concentrations at a receptor site
Receptor modeling utilizes composition data collected at the

receptor site to determine the source attributions. Receptor models are based on the assumption of mass conservation and the use of a mass balance analysis.

70

PMF Positive Matrix Factorization

PMF is a receptor model for source identification

and apportionment Helsinki, Finland

Developed by Dr. Pentti Paatero, University of Application: In air quality to resolve source types

(source apportionment)

72

PMF Characteristics
Method: Weighted least-squares Utilize error estimates of the data to optimum

data point scaling

Does not require comprehensive advance

information on source compositions

Incorporate the time variation

Obtain uncertainties for source composition and

source contribution output profiles

75

PMF Characteristics
Input: Ambient concentration data
Uncertainty of ambient data Observations Specified Uncertainties (for each element of each sample, having same number of rows and columns as concentration file) Equation Based Uncertainties

Output
Source compositions (F-factor)
Source contributions (G-factor) Scaled residuals (eij/sij)

76

Data file
Sample No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 AL 1016.86 853.37 822.65 1574.65 1074.94 2497.35 120.50 1057.57 998.97 1719.75 AS 0.56 2.61 0.99 1.68 0.97 3.42 1.56 1.02 1.43 1.85 BR 1.29 9.63 8.23 18.03 11.23 38.70 8.91 9.72 40.43 51.05 CE 0.59 0.71 0.31 1.93 0.85 2.03 1.16 1.02 0.93 1.55 CL 675.83 915.45 567.13 710.76 693.22 534.36 399.18 875.76 100.00 1290.81

77

Source Identification/Fingerprint

83

84

Source Identification
1000 100 100

Sea-salt
10

Motorcycle

Source profile factors

10 1 100 1

AlAsBrCaCeCl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

1000 100 10

AlAsBrCaCeCl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

Vehicle
10

Charcoal/Wood burning

1 10000 1000 100 10 1

AlAsBrCaCeCl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

10000 1000 100 10 1

AlAsBrCaCeCl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

Soil

Cement

AlAsBrCaCeCl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

AlAsBrCaCe Cl Fe K LaMnNaSbScSmTi V Zn

86

Airborne Contributions of Certain Marker Species

Source Soil Cement/Construction Sea-salt Motor vehicles Refuse incineration Wood burning Oil combustion Coal combustion Sulfide smelters Elements Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Fe, Mn, K Ca, Mg Na, Cl, Mg Br, Pb, Zn, C Sb, Zn, Cd, Ag, Sn, Pb K, C V, Ni, Rare earths As, Se, S, C, K In, Cd, As, Se, S
87

Summary
Monitoring air pollution is critical Ground-based information is limited High quality satellite measurements are now available to monitor air pollution Satellite information in combination with measurements and models can provide forecasts of air pollution events

89

90

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Adequacy of data compiled

Integration of Monitoring data on a sub-regional basis

Pollutants of concern (additional pollutants) SOx, NOx, Ozone, etc (NOx shows significant increase) QA/QC issues

Compatibility of information collected

Common monitoring protocol (such as EANET technical manual) Adequacy of monitoring network (strengthening in terms of no. of

stations/ parameters, frequency)

National baseline studies

91

Analysis and refinement of National emission inventories

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Comparison of methodologies used for different pollutants Aim for a common approach

Use of emission factors

First preference: Local emission factors for various activities Else use emission factors such as from WB rapid emission inventory Undertake emission factors development (where ever deemed necessary)

Subsequent refinements/ updating of emission inventories

Transparency in the development of inventory

Capacity Building

92

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Strengthening of regional modeling capabilities
Identification of appropriate tools/ models Model acceptability and ownership - focal centre Integrated assessment model - effects based approach Input data compilation - emissions/meteorology/database on

critical loads
Validation: model prediction vs observed data
Capacity Building

93

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution Strategies to minimize air pollution

Regional cooperation in cleaner energy sources (hydel,

alternative energies)
Fuel quality improvement (eg., reduced S in diesel) Improvement in energy efficiency Sharing of information and cooperation in adoption of

clean process technologies as well as EOP control technologies

94

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Studies on the impact assessment
Damage to human health
Impacts on crop productivity, forests, etc Related economic analysis

These would assist in formulating appropriate

policy response

95

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Stakeholder involvement and information dissemination

Involve relevant stakeholders

Industry, NGOs, research institutes, media

Dissemination of tools, methodologies, and data Information sharing

96

Strategy on Transboundary Air Pollution

Policy issues
Financial assistance for tackling TAP: Multilateral (UNEP/SACEP), National funds, others Scientific process to aid policy making : Leading to signing of Agreement/ Protocol

97

Male declaration on control & prevention of air pollution & its likely transboundary effects
Declaration approved on April 22, 1998

Aims: intergovernmental cooperation to address TAP and consequential impacts

Sets an institutional framework linking scientific research and policy formulation To draw up and implement national and regional action plan and protocols based on fuller understanding of TAP India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives and Iran
98

Top GHG Emitting Countries CO2 , CH4 , N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Country 1. United States 2. China 3. EU-25 4. Russia 5. India 6. Japan 7. Germany 8. Brazil 9. Canada 10. United Kingdom 11. Italy 12. South Korea 13. France 14. Mexico 15. Indonesia MtCO2 equivalent 6,928 4,938 4,725 1,915 1,884 1,317 1,009 851 680 654 531 521 513 512 503 % of World GHGs 20.6 14.7 14.0 5.7 5.6 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Contd.. 99

Top GHG Emitting Countries CO2 , CH4 , N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
MtCO2 equivalent 491 482 480 417 381 381 355 341 289 285 25 27,915 5,751 17,355 16,310 % of World GHGs 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 83 17 52 48
Sources & Notes: WRI, CAIT.
100

Country 16. Australia 17. Ukraine 18. Iran 19. South Africa 20. Spain 21. Poland 22. Turkey 23. Saudi Arabia 24. Argentina 25. Pakistan Top Rest of World Developed Developing

Source Contributions to Samples

Source factor Mass Contribution g11 g12 g21 . gn1
Source 1
2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

g1p G (n x p) gnp
Source p

A time series plot

A time series plot

101

Source Identification
Element f11 f12 f21 fp1 f1m
Source 1
1000 100 10

Factor

Al As Br Ca Ce Cl Fe K La MnNa Sb ScSm Ti V Zn

fpm

Source p
100 10

F (p x m) Source composition

Al As Br Ca Ce Cl Fe K La MnNa Sb ScSm Ti V Zn

102

Aerosol Scavenging
At remote sites downwind of high emission sources SO42-and were found to be strongly correlated indicating their similar atmospheric removal rates. SO42- in cloud water is produced from both scavenging and in situ SO2 oxidation and can be expressed as

(SO2 )cw =(/L )(SO42- )aa+ )(SO4in2- )

where is the fraction of aerosols SO42- taken by the cloud, L is the liquid water content in g/m3 and (SO4in2- ) is the concentration of (SO2) oxidation. The only source of cloud water Se is from aerosols scavenging

(Se)cw =(/L) (Se)aa

Where is the scavenging coefficient of aerosols Se. Combining equ.(1) and (2) SO4in2-=[(SO42-/Se)cw -(/) (SO42- )/ Seaa)](Se)cw

103

 The SO4-2/Se ratios are shown in top portion of Fig. 4. The ratios vary from 1800 to 10000, with a mean of 4070, are in the range typically observed at sites in the US and in Pakistan and indicative of substantial contributions to SO4-2 concentration due to the oxidation of SO2. Improved analytical techniques such as increasing the sampled air flow rate from 16 to 100 l/min. will lead improved results. The improved results helps in the detection of Se and reduce the uncertainties in the SO4-2/Se ratios to below 10%.
104