Hydro meteorological Impact assessment for Bega 2012 over different catchments.

February 1, 2013

Background Objectives Major river catchments of Ethiopia Methods Results Summary

Water supply interest are concerned with the total amount of water availability.

Water demand management practice

Managing and Forecasting the inflow and discharge rates

To assess the impact of Bega 2012 on water resources in the different catchments of the country. To assess the impact of Bega 2012 weather on Reservoirs, Dams and irrigation schemes.

Thornthwaite introduced the concept of the precipitation effectiveness index , which is computed from the monthly values of rainfall and evaporation. The evaporation is computed empirically from mean monthly air temperature. In assessing the effectiveness of rainfall, in terms of water availability relationships between the rainfall and air temperature has been worked out in terms of moisture indices. Where, R = monthly rainfall in mm; T = temperature in C

Index < than 16 16 31

Status Dry Semi-Dry

Symbol
0 16 32 64 128

32 63
64 128 > than 128

Sub-humid
Humid Wet

Aridity status for Bega 2012 at different basins.

Distribution of Heavy fall days exceeding 30mm rainfall during Bega 2012 over main river basins.
STATION
ADET ADWA ARBA MINCH ARJO AYKEL BLATE BUI CHAGINI DANGILA DEBARK DEBRE TABOR DOLLO-MENA GAMBELLA GINNIR JINKA(BAKO) KIBREMENGIST LARE MOYALE NEDJO NEKEMTE TEPPI

Heavyfall(mm)
37.1 38.0 30.5 36.2 56.0 37.0 32.0 39.1 38.6 38.1 30.0 77.1 44.8 30.0 38.2 46.4 61.5 34.1 30.6 44.4 79.0

.... continued
STATION GOLOLCHA TEPPI GINNIR CHIRA HEAVYFALL(mm) 34.7 32.1 30.0 30.0

STATION JIJIGA MAJI METEHARA SIRINKA

HEAVYFALL(mm) 30.1 39 31.6 45.3

Status of Reservoirs and Dams level in different years

Koka
112 110 108 Water Level (m) 106 104 102 100 98 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

Melka Wakena
2522 2520 2518 2516 Water level (m) 2514 2512 2510 2508 2506 2504 2502

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Month

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Fincha
2219 2218 Water Level (m) 2217 2216 2215 2214 2213

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2212
Month

Tana Beles
1788 1788 1787 1787
Water Level(m)

1786 1786 1785 1785 1784 1784 1783 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

Month

GilGel Gibe 1
1675

1670

1665 Water level (m)

1660

1655

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

1650

1645 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Tekeze
1160 1140 1120 Water level (m) 1100 1080 1060 1040 1020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean

Seasonal mean of Bega 2012

In October and November over western half of Abay, Baro Akob, southern half of Omo Gibe and central Rift Valley, upper and middle parts of Genale Dawa and pocket areas of lower Tekeze were experienced in wet condition. In the rest parts of eastern Abay, most parts of Tekeze, middle Wabishebele and middle Omogibe and Rift valley catchments were performed humid to semi humid condition. Awash, eastern Abay, upper Omo Gibe and Rift Valley and some parts of upper and lower Wabishebele the dry condition were observed in October and November. In December and January the dry Bega condition were dominated over all basins except lower Omo Gibe and south eastern parts of Baro Akobo.

continued
During October some stations reported heavy falls that exceed 30 mm for 1 to 4 heavy fall days over most catchments. The maximum heavy fall days was reported over Genale Dawa basin at Kibremengist station. In November many stations reported heavy falls for one day except Awash and Wabishebele catchments, and in the rest two Bega months some station also reported heavy fall over Wabishebele, Awash, Baro Akobo, Omo Gibe and Genale Dawa for one day for each basins. In general during Bega 2012 except Genale dawa basin the upper and middle parts of all catchments were dominated under dry and semi dry condition.

Hydro meteorological outlook for Belg 2013 Over different Basins

February 1 , 2013

Outline of Presentation

Objectives

Selected analogue Year Methods Results Summary

Objectives
To indicate the impact of climate outlook of Belg 2013 on water resources in the different catchments of the country. To indicate the impact of climate outlook of Belg 2013 on Reservoirs, Dams and irrigation schemes.

Selected analogue Year

For the coming season the selected analogue year 1778, 2005, 2007,1980,1995 and 2003 were compared based on probabilistic seasonal forecast for Belg 2013 and viewed out on catchments based map using geostatistical kriging method. Among which the year 2007, 2005 and1778 are the best analogue year that can enlighten the Aridity status in the coming Belg season.

Thornthwaite introduced the concept of the precipitation effectiveness index , which is computed from the monthly values of rainfall and evaporation. The evaporation is computed empirically from mean monthly air temperature. In assessing the effectiveness of rainfall, in terms of water availability relationships between the rainfall and air temperature has been worked out in terms of moisture indices. Where, R = monthly rainfall in mm; T = temperature in C

Methods

February

March

April

May

Seasonal mean of Belg for each analogue year

For the coming Belg season in the first month February will be performed humid to semi humid condition over some parts of the upper catchments of many basins. In March wet condition will be observed over Eastern Baro Akobo, upper Wabishebele, upper Genale Dawa, OmoGibe and some parts of upper Rift valley will expected to be wet condition. During April and May the wet condition will be dominated over wide areas of southern and western basins of the country respectively. The coming Belg 2013 Omo Gibe and Wabishebele dams will have a better chance to get some amount of water. However it should be noted that Belg rain has small contribution for surface runoff. It is important those catchments which will be in wet condition to compensate the loss of water due to evaporation over irrigation schemes, hydro-electric dams and drinking water purposes.

Thank you