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OUTLINE
System Definition Problem Definition Data Analysis Conceptual Model Arena Model Verification Validation Alternative Arena Model 1 Alternative Arena Model 2 Comparison Cost Analysis
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SYSTEM DEFINITION
In our system, there are 3 types of entities:
Lodge owners(have benefits of special services.) Spectators at 100s blocks(dont have benefits of special services.)
PROBLEM DEFINITION
When 100s blocks spectators and lodge owners come to the same entrance of the stadium,lodge servers attach wristbands in order to seperate lodge owners and spectators. Servers are positioned irregularly. Servers are not utilized equally.Also,number of servers are more than required. It causes chaos and disorganisation.
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Corresponding p-value : 0.324 > 0.05 so interarival time datas are fitted.
Corresponding p-value : 0.613 > 0.05 so service time datas are fitted.
Corresponding p-value : 0.0987 > 0.05 so delay time datas are fitted.
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Lodg e spectato owne r r
Server 1
Lodge owner
Lodge owner
spectator
Lodge owner
Server 2
Lodge owner
Server 3
Server 4
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ARENA MODEL
VERIFICATION
Verification is building the model correctly. We run the real system in Arena without any error.
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VALIDATION
Hypothesis Test: Performance measure: utilization Compare the utilization of the model with the actual utilization. Null hypothesis testing : evaluate whether the simulation and the real system are the same.
H0 : E(X)=0.1226 H1 : E(X)0.1226
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Replicatio n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
X=Average utilization 0,1355 0,1129 0,1269 0,1396 0,1201 0,1253 0,1267 0,1202 0,122 0,1203 0,1311 0,1249 0,1104 0,1416 0,1356
Replicatio n 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
X=Average utilization 0,08942 0,1154 0,1297 0,114 0,1259 0,1224 0,1266 0,1241 0,1197 0,1192 0,1257 0,1253 0,12 0,1355 0,1174
Standard Deviation:
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T-TEST
=0.05
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Confidence interval testing: evaluate whether the simulation and the real system are close enough.
SAMPLE SIZE
Therefore: H>
= 0.015
2 12.71
3 4.30
4 3.18
5 2.78 3.4206
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ALTERNATIVE MODEL 1
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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 1
C.I. does not include zero.There is a significant statistical difference between the real model & alternative 1.
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ALTERNATIVE MODEL 2
Two toll gates are put instead of servers Lodge owners and 100s block spectators are lead into the stad from two different gates in order to decrease waiting times
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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 2
Assumption:Independent sampling which is unequal variance
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COMPARISON OF MODEL&ALTERNATIVE 2
C.I. does not include zero.There is a significant statistical difference between the real model & alternative 2.
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COST ANALYSIS
COST SERVERx5 TOLL GATEx2 300 TL/match 1380 TOTAL COST(Annual) 5100 TL ~ 4000TL(include maintenance cost)
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