Communicating resilience on lands protected by levees

Jessica Ludy
Building Resilience Workshop, March 9, 2013

A 100-year Flood is

The Army Corps of Engineers built us levees to last 100 years.

A 100-year Flood is

A major flood that comes every 100 years its a worst-case scenario.

A 100-year Flood is

The last flood came in 1950

the next one will be in 2050.

I would not evacuate because

Flooding is unlikely and if flooding occurs, it will be minimal.

I would not evacuate because

I am handicapped and disabled, and have trouble getting around.

I would not evacuate because

I dont know where else to go.

I would not evacuate because

88 F0
Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans

50 F0
Sacramento River, upstream of the Delta

Jones Tract, 2004

I can assure you any efforts you make to communicate risk to these people will be squashed
-(paraphrased) Planner, Central Valley, CA

National Flood Insurance Program

The Levee Problem.

Image credit: Jessica Ludy

National Flood Insurance Program

The story of Bill and Bob:

Bob has to buy flood insurance

Bill is safe behind a FEMA accredited levee

20

10

100 year flood

Graphic: John Cain

The Question

How well do residents protected by 100-year levees understand their true level of risk?

The Question

Why does it matter?

Behavior in an emergency is tied to risk perception Flood losses tend to be larger where people are unaware
Exposing people to involuntary risk means people cannot choose to avoid the threat.

The California Delta

Study Area

Study Area
Spanos Park West, Stockton

Stockton

New development (2000) 1300 houses

Reaccredited 100-year levee (2006)

Jessica Ludy, 9 March 2013

Study Area

Survey questions
awareness, preparation, concern, flood knowledge, experience

Bear Creek

Bear Creek Levee

Bear Creek

Bear Creek Levee +3.0m

-0.7m +0.7m

Bear Creek Levee

high t mean sea-lev low

Lands from 0 to -12ft below sea-level

0m 15m

-1.3m
Jessica Ludy, 9 March 2013 30m

Study Area

Development Characteristics

Most households earn $80,000/year

Most households have a 4-year College education

Ethnically diverse

Results

Survey Results
Residents not aware of flood risk
Not told they are at risk

Unprepared for a flood

Photo: Andrea Gaffney

Results

Risk Perception

high moderate low no

not at all somewhat confident very

very concerned concerned somewhat not at all

Is your property at risk?

How confident are you that your levee will protect you?

Concern of flooded property

Results

If a levee broke and your property flooded, how deep would it get?

50% were correct 50% underestimated or were unsure

six inches at best, Id think hardly any, just the front lawn

Results

Access to information
60% have not been informed

60% rarely hear about flooding

30% never hear about flooding

6% spoke with a real estate agent about flooding

Results

Understanding of a 100-year flood

2.6%

yes
31% 52.4%

Thought they understood, but didnt somewhat no

14%

Results

Preparation
20% households have flood insurance 13% residents took precautionary measures
evacuation plans, valuables on 2nd story, disaster supply kit.
Noaa photo library

No boats.

What does it all mean?

Residents are exposed to involuntary risk People of all levels of income/education are unaware (not just low-income/education)

Perception that 100-year standard protects from all flooding.

Implications for policy, and for all of us.

Jessica Ludy, 9 March, 2013

What does it all mean?

After taking this survey, I contacted Stockton City Hall and was glibly told I had nothing to worry about. I need information. This opened my eyes. Plus, I need to check whether this area is in a flood area.
*Latest USACE Bear Creek Levee Assessment: Unacceptable

What does it all mean?

-Educate individuals for individual measures

-Educate individuals to build political will for collective measures; Polderen -Educate planners, builders, developers, decision-makers

Water Marks Competition

University of California, Berkeley is hosting an international design competition open to individuals and students.

http://watermarkscompetition.org

The idea is to design spaces in landscapes that communicate water and risk.