Chinese Assertiveness and U.S. Rebalancing: Confrontation in the South China Sea?

Carlyle A. Thayer Association for Asian Studies San Diego, March 22, 2013

Outline
1.
2. 3. 4. 5. Introduction Chinas Core Interests and Maritime Objectives U.S. National Interests in South China Sea U.S. Rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific Responses by Regional States Possible Outcomes

Introduction
Robert Kaplan the South China Sea is the future of conflict Struggle for naval primacy in East Asia Waters of South China Sea new front Regional powers will modernize navies Major warfare will not break out Multipolar balance of power not hegemony

1. Chinas Maritime Objectives

Core interest debate Chinas interests:
Regional stability Secure sea lanes Access to fisheries and natural resources Unresolved territorial claims

Naval exercises core security-related interests

Chinas Maritime Objectives

Four national defense objectives
Safeguarding national sovereignty, security

National Military Strategic Guidelines

Active defense

PLA Navy 3 essential missions

Defeating invasion from sea Defending territorial sovereignty Protecting maritime rights

Chinas Maritime Objectives

Primary area of operation
First and second island chain Offshore or Near Seas Defense
Yellow, East China and South China Seas Sea lines of communication (SLOC) Claim to historic rights over South China Sea

PLAN 6 offensive/defensive maritime campaigns

Five Point Summary

1. Economic rise = increased defense spending and transformation of PLA Navy 2. Highest priority national reunification Taiwan 3. Salience of SLOC protection 4. Resource nationalism in South China Sea 5. China as global power will develop blue water navy

Chinas Naval Modernization

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Anti-ship ballistic missiles Anti-ship cruise missiles Submarines Aircraft carriers Surface combatants Amphibious ships

Chinas Force Capability Development

7. Land based aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles 8. electromagnetic pulse weapons 9. Maritime surveillance and targeting systems
South Sea Fleet new priority Hainan Island Ya Long Naval Base

Chinas Force Capability Development

Paracel Islands
Woody Island/Sansha City garrison

Spratly Islands
Mischief, Fiery Cross, and Johnson South Reefs

Naval Exercises/Combat Ready Patrols Paramilitary Fleets

China Marine Surveillance (CMS) Fishery Law Enforcement Command (FLEC)

2. U.S. National Interests in South China Sea

Obama Administration US is back Interagency review National interests
Freedom of navigation Open access to Asias maritime commons Respect for international law Collaborative diplomatic approaches to resolve territorial disputes (eg. Code of Conduct)

3. U.S. Strategy of Rebalancing

Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (January 2012) Economic and security interests
Indo-Pacific Arc

Rebalance toward Asia-Pacific

Allies Key partners Networks of cooperation with emerging partners

U.S. Strategy of Rebalancing

Economic

Diplomatic/Political

Military engagement

U.S. PACOM 4 Pillars

Partnerships

Presence

Principles

Power

Force Posture Changes

Virginia class submarines 5th generation fighters P-8 Aircraft Cruise missiles Enhanced ISR

4. Responses by Regional States

The Philippines
Reassertion of U.S. alliance Territorial defense/force modernization

Vietnam
Defense modernization

Regional Force Modernization

Conventional submarines New technologies and weapon systems

5. China-US Rivalry: Possible Outcomes

Armed conflict

Cooperation & friction

Modus vivendi

Conclusion: Kaplan Thesis

The struggle for primacy in the Western Pacific will not necessarily involve combat; much of what takes place will happen quietly and over the horizon in blank sea spaces, at a glacial tempo befitting the slow, steady accommodation to superior economic and military power that states have made throughout history. War is far from inevitable even if competition is a given.