TF-Nail

Effects analysis
Desired Effects Impediments

TF-Nail

Possible Lines of Operation / Critical Actions

AI/UW/DA
AI/CAS/IO/UW UW/IO/ AI/CAS/UW/FID DA/AI/CAS/UW/IO

Destroy AH WMD capability (1st Strike on TBM Marshalling)

Oil reserves intact Develop/support AH insurgencies (Current/Future) Tri-party alliance. AZ has cap to defend its boarders (future) Force AH to react to multiple scenarios perceived coalition threats inside AH teritory; AH deploy to perceived threats away from AZ boarder. Convince AH divisions to w/d from AZ boarder Influence AH people that AH govt is corrupt, evil, and non-protective. Influence AH to halt production of WMD Destroy AH ability to produce WMD

IADS/ADA (location/access); AH CBT PWR

AH CBT PWR; lack of CFLCC forces; attrition of AZ forces AH govt; geographic challenges ethnic/tribal lines. AH cbt pwr; lack of CFLCC forces; attrition of AZ forces AH OBJ inside AZ; threat not crediable in south

Dilecnchys Obj and influence Dilenchys current govt influence Govt control/Dilenchys obj IADs/ADA/geography AH cbt pwr/location

UW/IO IO/UW/ IO/ AI/CAS/UW

TF-Nail

JTF Operational Network Analysis

Targets Decisive Points COG Military Leaders SAPA support for Ahurastan

TF-Nail

IO conducts PMESII MODEL of GAAT

Military Organization Ahurasani Legitimacy

Resupply Depots Log Trains Ahurastani Logistics Ahurastani Logistic System Ahurastani Soldiers Willingness to Fight and Azerbaijani willingness to resist

Maneuver Forces/ WMD

C3I
Media Chain of Command Tribal Leaders

Oil Fields Baku

SAPA Popular Support

TF-Nail

Effects Based Estimate

Effects
1st Order Effects (Physical)
Our message gets out, their message is degraded

TF-Nail

Targets

Objectives
3d Order Effects (Systemic)
Dissent / uprising among popular support

Targets

2d Order Effects (Functional)

Population and guerrilla fighters question leaders Inability of AH nation command authority to communicate with military

Objective
Decrease Ahurastani and SAPA legitimacy Destroy Ahurastanis will to go after the oil in Baku

Media

Maneuver Forces/ Chain of Command/WMD

No comms, disorganized,, reduced combat power

Fear loss of military and ability to maintain AH control

Resupply Depots Fuel Refineries / Storage/ Log Trains Action/Key Node

No food, no fuel, no ammo

They go to reverse cycle and hide /go to ground

Low moral, desertion, loss of maneuver ability

Degrade Ahurastans Logistic capability Desired Outcomes

Trigger

Cause

Trigger

Cause

Trigger

Cause

TF-Nail

UW End State/Risks?
Upside Downside
Return to status quo

TF-Nail

Restore border
AH part of Iran

Easiest to achieve

may provide no long-term solution

Ahurastan is no longer a Strengthens Iranian

problem
Unifies Azeri people

regional power
Significant shift in

AH part of AZ

according to pre-1828 borders Connects Naxcivan exclave to Azerbaijan (contiguous border) Ahurastan no longer a problem
Friendly nation in a

Azerbaijan demographics May allow AH Azeris to achieve by popular election what they could not achieve by war Risk of Azerbaijan civil war
Responsibility for

AH independent friendly regime

geographically important area

nation-building