Guesstimates

22 April 2013

Guesstimates
Introduction
Ballpark figures or back of the envelope calculations basically approximations

Independent part of the interview or used during a case

No random figures allowed May be asked to validate your assumptions Guesstimates vs. Cases Similarity Used to showcase your ability to analyze a situation and form conclusions by thinking out loud Difference Case-> ask a series of questions from the interviewer Guesstimate-> reach conclusion through a series of increasingly specific statements Why are these asked? Used to reject hypothesis

-2-

The First Encounter

HOW MANY PING PONG BALLS FIT IN A BOEING 747?
Do NOT panic Ask for a moment to compose your thoughts No need to be exact Pick nice round numbers that are easy for you to manipulate Funnel Approach Think broadly, slowly drill down to the final solution Interviewer will be providing directions else make assumptions

-3-

Working towards the solution

The funnel approach
What is your structure?

Volume of ping pong ball

Volume of Boeing 747

Ans= Volume 1/ Volume 2

The easy part: - Volume of ping pong ball= 4/3**R^3= 3 inch3 The tough part: - Future Consultants i.e. YOU to take up the mantle

-4-

Our Solution
Person equivalent= 6 feet height * 1 foot wide * 1 foot deep = 10368 inch3

Spaces in a Boeing 747 Seats =400 Galleys = 3 Lavatories = 14 Aisles = 3

Total person equivalents Seats = 400 person equivalents Galleys = 6*3 person equivalents Lavatories = 14*2 person equivalents Aisles = 40*3 person equivalents Total = approx 600 person equivalents Number of balls = 600*10368/ 3= 2,073,600 Are we there yet?

-5-

Unfortunately No
Cargo and extra space (belly holds, overhead compartment, leg room and space above the passengers heads) If figures are known can be calculated else take assumptions E.g. 4 times packing space as the volume of persons Total = 600 + 2400 = 3000 person equivalents Volume of a Boeing 747 = 3000*10368= 31,104,000 in3

Number of balls that can be held= 10,368,000 balls

Are we there yet? The Extra Step.. The piece de resistance PACKING DENSITY! The final figure =70% * 10,368,000= 7,257,600 balls

-6-

Do you want more?

HOW MANY GALLONS OF WHITE HOUSE PAINT ARE SOLD IN THE U.S. EVERY YEAR?
2 approaches

The Start Big approach

Number of people in US

Number of residential houses

Add shops, offices etc.

Paint used

Area of 1 house

Frequency of painting

The Start Small approach Start from a small town

-7-

Thank You

-8-