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Ashraf Khalil

Billington and Allen, Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems, 1983. David J Smith, Reliability, Maintainability and Risk, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1997. Walpole, Raymond, Sharon and Keying, Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Prentice-Hall, 2002.

Reliability engineering is an engineering field that deals with the study, evaluation, and life-cycle management of reliability The ability of a system or component to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. Reliability is theoretically defined as the probability of failure, the frequency of failures, or in terms of availability

The reliability is the probability of success, Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF). The prevention of system loose function. OR Reliability is the probability of a device performing its purpose adequately for the period of time intended under the operating conditions encountered." Billington and Allen (1983).

Used to estimate the reliabilities of individual devices, such as electronic components, and the reliabilities of systems constructed of components. Mathematical based on probability theory.

Maintainability: The ability of an item, under stated conditions of use, to be retained in, or restored to, a state in which it can perform its required function(s), when maintenance is performed under stated conditions and using prescribed procedures and resources. Expressed as Mean Time To Repair (MTTR).

Availability: Is the probability that a system is available for use at a given time- a function of reliability and maintainability. A=Up time/(Up time+ Down time) =MTBF/(MTBF+MDT). Failure: The termination of the ability of an item to perform its required function. A fault: is "An accidental condition that causes a functional unit to fail to perform its required function"

expected number of failures in a given time period average time between failures average down time expected revenue loss due to failure expected loss of output due to failure

MTBF = MTTF + MTTR Where MTTF is mean time to failure MTTR is mean time to repair

The probability that an item will fail in the interval from 0 to time t is F(t), the reliability is then: R(t)=1-F(t)

R1

R2

R3

Assumes that items in the series are independent All items must work for the system to work

The probability of failure in the interval t to t+dt which is (t) dt where (t) is the failure rate

The variation of failure rate of electrical or electronic components.

Failure Rate

Early Failure Useful Life

Wearout Failure

The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the Sample Space and is represented by the symbol S. Example 1 The possible outcomes when a coin is tossed? S = { H, T } Example 2 The experiment of tossing a die? S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

Example 3: Tree Diagram Tossing a coin then a die! S = {HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 }

Example 4: Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified (D=Defective or N=Nondefective). S={DDD,DDN,DND,DNN,NDD,NDN,NND,NNN}

Event: An event is a subset of a sample space. Example: The outcome is dividable by 3 (toss a die) A= {3, 6} Example: The number of defective parts is more than 1. B = {DDN, DND, NDD, DDD}

The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol A. A={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN} A={NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol AB, is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B. Example M={a,e,i,o,u} N={r,s,t} M N= Two events are called mutually exclusive if : AB =

The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A B, is the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or Both. Example A={a,b,c} B={b,c,d,e} A B={a,b,c,d,e} Example M={x|3<x<9} and N={y|5<y<12}, then MN = {z|3<z<12}

AB = regions a and 2. B C= regions 1 and 3 AC=regions 1,2,3,4,5, and 7, BA= regions 4 and 7, ABC= region 1, (AB) C=regions 2,6, and 7.

If A and B are any two events, then P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AB) If A and B are mutually exclusive: P(AB)=P(A)+P(B) Why P(AB)=0

Problem 1:
The probability that a man will be alive in 10 years is 0.8 and the probability that his wife will be alive in 10 years is 0.9. Find the probability that in 10 years A- Both will be alive. B- Only the man will be alive. C- Only the wife will be alive. D- At least one will be alive.

Solution:
A- Both will be alive

P ( A) 0.8 (a man will be alive). P( B) 0.9 (his wife will be alive) P( A B) P( A). P( B) 0.9 0.8 0.72 (independen t events)
B- Only the man will be alive:

P (Only the man will be alive) P( A) P( A B) 0.8 0.72 0.08 C- Only the wife will be alive:

P (Only the wife will be alive) P ( B) P ( A B) 0.9 0.72 0.18


D- At least one will be alive:

P (Only the man will be alive) P( A) P( A B) 0.8 0.72 0.08

Problem 5:
Two dice are tossed together. Let A be the event that the sum of the faces are odd, B the event that at least one is a one. What is the probability that: (i) Both A and B occur? (ii) Either A or B or both occur? (iii) A and not B occur? (iv) B and not A occur?

A = The sum is odd B = at least one face is a one.


S (1 1) (1 2)(1 3)(1 4)(1 5)(1 6) (2 1)(2 2)(2 3)(2 4)(2 5)(2 6) (3 1)(3 2)(3 3)(3 4)(3 5)(3 6) (4 1)(4 2)(4 3)(4 4)(4 5)(4 6) (5 1)(5 2)(5 3)(5 4)(5 5)(5 6) (6 1)(6 2)(6 3)(6 4)(6 5)(6 6) 36;

A (1 2) (1 4) (1 6) (2 1)(2 3)(2 5) (3 2)(3 4)(3 6) (4 1)(4 3)(4 5) (5 2)(5 4)(5 6)

(6 1)(6 3)(6 5) 18;


B (1 1) (1 2)(1 3)(1 4)(1 5)(1 6) (2 1)(3 1)(4 1)(5 1) (6 1) 11

Both A and B occur:

A B (1 2)(1 4)(1 6)(2 1)(4 1)(6 1)

6 P (A B) 23
II Either A or B or both occur:

A B 18 11 6 23 23 P (A B) 36

III A and not B occurs:

12 A B 18 6 12;P(A B ) 36
IV B and not A occurs:

5 B A 11 6 5; P(A B ) 36

P(B|A) = the probability that B occurs given that A occurs.