Have you ever

Shot a rifle? Played darts? Played basketball?

What is the point of these sports? What makes them hard?

Have you ever

Shot a rifle? Played darts? Played basketball?

Emmet

Jake

Who is the better shot?

Discussion
What do you measure in your process? Why do those measures matter? Are those measures consistently the same? Why not?

Variability

Deviation = distance between observations and the mean (or average)

Observations 9 Deviations

8 7 10 8 9
Emmett

10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 9 8.4 = 0.6

8 8 8.4 = -0.4 8 8 8.4 = -0.4 7 7 8.4 = -1.4 averages 8.4

Jake

0.0

Variability

Deviation = distance between observations and the mean (or average)

Observations Deviations 7 6.6 = 0.4

Emmett

7
7 7

7 6.6 = 0.4
7 6.6 = 0.4

6 6 6.6 = -0.6 6 6 6.6 = -0.6 averages 6.6

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

0.0

Variability

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations 9 Deviations Squared Deviations 2.56

8 7 10 8 9
Emmett

10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 9 8.4 = 0.6

8 8 8.4 = -0.4 8 8 8.4 = -0.4 7 7 8.4 = -1.4 averages 8.4

0.36
0.16 0.16 1.96

Jake

0.0

1.0

Variance

Variability

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations Deviations Squared Deviations

Emmett

7
7 7 6 6 averages

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

Variability

Variance = average distance between observations and the mean squared

Observations Deviations 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 Squared Deviations 0.16

Emmett

7
7 7

7 - 6.6 = 0.4
7 - 6.6 = 0.4

0.16
0.16 0.36 0.36

6 6 6.6 = -0.6 6 6 6.6 = -0.6 averages 6.6

7 6 7 7 6

Jake

0.0

0.24

Variance

Variability

Standard deviation = square root of variance

Variance Standard Deviation 1.0 0.4898979

Emmett

Emmett Jake

1.0 0.24

Jake

But what good is a standard deviation

Variability
The world tends to be bell-shaped

Even very rare outcomes are possible (probability > 0)

Fewer in the tails (lower)

Most outcomes occur in the middle

Fewer in the tails (upper)

Even very rare outcomes are possible (probability > 0)

Variability
Here is why:

Even outcomes that are equally likely (like dice), when you add them up, become bell shaped
Add up the dots on the dice

0.2

Probability

0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Sum of dots

1 die 2 dice 3 dice

Normal bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things and you start to be normal Normal distributions are divide up into 3 standard deviations on each side of the mean Once your that, you know a lot about what is going on

And that is what a standard deviation is good for

Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls outside 3 standard deviations? 2. One observation falls in zone A? 3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in one zone A? 4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in one zone B or beyond? 5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in one zone B or beyond? 6. 8 consecutive points above the mean, rising, or falling?

XX X 34 56 X1 X XX 2 X

78

Causes of Variability

Common Causes:
Random variation (usual) No pattern Inherent in process

adjusting

the process increases its variation

(unusual)

Special Causes
Non-random variation May exhibit a pattern

Assignable, explainable, controllable adjusting the process decreases its variation

SPC uses samples to identify that special causes have occurred

Causes
Should show a random pattern. Not fixed pattern. For if 18 of the last 20 points plotted above the center line but below the upper control limit and only two of these points plotted below the center line but above the lower control limit, we would be very suspicious that something was wrong.

Limits

Process and Control limits:

Statistical Process

limits are used for individual items Control limits are used with averages Limits = 3 Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special causes)

Specification limits:
Engineered

= target tolerance Define acceptable & unacceptable

Limits

Example of Control Chart

In manufacturing automobile engine piston rings, the inside diameter of the rings is a critical quality characteristic. The process mean inside ring diameter is 74 millimeters, and it is known that the standard deviation of ring diameter is 0.01 millimeters. Every hour a random sample of five rings is taken, the average ring diameter of the sample (say ) is computed, and is plotted on the chart.

Consider how the control limits were determined. The process average is 74 millimeters, and the process standard deviation is 0.01 millimeters. Now if samples of size n 5 are taken, the standard deviation of the sample average is

Process vs. control limits

Distribution of averages Control limits Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals Process limits

Usual v. Unusual, Acceptable v. Defective

C Target

More about limits

Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1)

target

target

Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)

Cpk measures Process Capability

If process limits and control limits are at the same location, Cpk = 1. Cpk 2 is exceptional.

Process capability
Good quality: defects are rare (Cpk>1) Poor quality: defects are common (Cpk<1)
= USL x = 24 20 = .667 3 3(2) = x - LSL = 20 15 = .833 3 3(2)

Cpk = min

14

15

20

24

26

= = 3 = (UPL x, or x LPL)

Going out of control

When an observation is unusual, what can we conclude?

The mean has changed

X 1 2

Going out of control

When an observation is unusual, what can we conclude?

1 2

The standard deviation has changed

Setting up control charts:

Calculating the limits

1.
2. 3. 4. 5.

6.
7. 8.

Sample n items (often 4 or 5) Find the mean of the sample x (x-bar) Find the range of the sample R Plot x on the x chart Plot the R on an R chart Repeat steps 1-5 thirty times Average the xs to create x (x-bar-bar) Average the Rs to create R (R-bar)

Setting up control charts:

Calculating the limits

9.
10.

Find A2 on table (A2 times R estimates 3) Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X A2 R

11.

Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL D3 R

UCL D4 R

Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 observation 1 observation 2 7 7 smpl 2 11 8 smpl 3 6 10 smpl 4 7 8 smpl 5 10 5 smpl 6 10 5

observation 3
x-bar R

10

12

X-bar chart UCL Centerline LCL

R chart

Lets try a small problem

smpl 1 observation 1 observation 2 7 7 smpl 2 11 8 smpl 3 6 10 smpl 4 7 8 smpl 5 10 5 smpl 6 10 5 Avg.

observation 3
X-bar R 7.3333 1

8
3

10
9.6667 6

12
9.3333 7.3333 1

7
7 5

6
7.6667 5

8
8.0556 3.5

X-bar chart UCL 11.6361 8.0556 4.4751

R chart 9.0125 3.5 0

Centerline
LCL

X-bar chart
14.0000 12.0000 10.0000 8.0000 6.0000 4.0000 2.0000 0.0000 1 2 3 4 5 6

11.6361 8.0556 4.4751

R chart
10
9.0125

8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 3.5

Interpreting charts
Observations outside control limits indicate the process is probably out-of-control Significant patterns in the observations indicate the process is probably out-ofcontrol Random causes will on rare occasions indicate the process is probably out-ofcontrol when it actually is not

Interpreting charts

In the excel spreadsheet, look for these shifts:

A B

Show real time examples of charts here

Lots of other charts exist

P chart For yes-no questions like is it defective? (binomial data) C charts For counting number defects where most items have 1 defects (eg. custom built houses) U charts Average count per unit (similar to C chart) Cusum & EWMA Advanced charts

p (1 p ) p3 n

c 3 c

u u 3 n

V shaped or Curved control limits (calculate them by hiring a statistician)

Selecting rational samples

Chosen so that variation within the sample is considered to be from common causes Special causes should only occur between samples Special causes to avoid in sampling
passage workers shifts

of time

machines Locations

Chart advice

Larger samples are more accurate Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control Dont convert measurement data to yes/no binomial data (Xs to Ps) Not all out-of control points are bad Dont combine data (or mix product) Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?) Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)