Fundamentals of Hypothesis

Testing: One-Sample Tests

What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a claim
(assumption) about a
population parameter:

population mean


population proportion

Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is = $42
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is = 0.68
The Null Hypothesis, H
0
States the claim or assertion to be tested
Example: The average number of TV sets in
U.S. Homes is equal to three ( )
Is always about a population parameter,
not about a sample statistic
3 : H
0
=
3 : H
0
= 3 X : H
0
=
The Null Hypothesis, H
0
Begin with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true
Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
Refers to the status quo
Always contains = , or > sign
May or may not be rejected
(continued)
The Alternative Hypothesis, H
1
Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is not equal to 3 ( H
1
: 3 )
Challenges the status quo
Never contains the = , or > sign
May or may not be proven
Is generally the hypothesis that the
researcher is trying to prove
Population
Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
REJECT
Suppose
the sample
mean age
is 20: X = 20
Sample
Null Hypothesis
20
likely if = 50? =
Is
Hypothesis Testing Process
If not likely,
Now select a
random sample
H
0
: = 50 )
X
Sampling Distribution of X
= 50
If H
0
is true
If it is unlikely that
we would get a
sample mean of
this value ...
... then we
reject the null
hypothesis that
= 50.
Reason for Rejecting H
0
20
... if in fact this were
the population mean
X
Level of Significance, o
Defines the unlikely values of the sample
statistic if the null hypothesis is true
Defines rejection region of the sampling
distribution
Is designated by o , (level of significance)
Typical values are 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10
Is selected by the researcher at the beginning
Provides the critical value(s) of the test
Level of Significance
and the Rejection Region
H
0
: 3
H
1
: < 3
0
H
0
: 3
H
1
: > 3
o
o
Represents
critical value
Lower-tail test
Level of significance =
o
0
Upper-tail test
Two-tail test
Rejection
region is
shaded
/2
0
o
/2
o
H
0
: = 3
H
1
: 3
Errors in Making Decisions
Type I Error
Reject a true null hypothesis
Considered a serious type of error

The probability of Type I Error is o

Called level of significance of the test
Set by the researcher in advance
Errors in Making Decisions
Type II Error
Fail to reject a false null hypothesis

The probability of Type II Error is
(continued)
Outcomes and Probabilities
Actual
Situation
Decision
Do Not
Reject
H
0
No error
(1 - )
o
Type II Error
( )
Reject
H
0
Type I Error
( )
o
Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes
H
0
False H
0
True
Key:
Outcome
(Probability)
No Error
( 1 - )
Type I & II Error Relationship
Type I and Type II errors cannot happen at
the same time
Type I error can only occur if H
0
is true
Type II error can only occur if H
0
is false

If Type I error probability ( o ) , then
Type II error probability ( )
Factors Affecting Type II Error
All else equal,
when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value

when o
when
when n
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
o Known o Unknown
Hypothesis
Tests for
(Z test)
(t test)
Z Test of Hypothesis for the
Mean ( Known)
Convert sample statistic ( ) to a Z test statistic


X
The test statistic is:
n

X
Z

=
Known Unknown
Hypothesis
Tests for
o Known o Unknown
(Z test)
(t test)
Critical Value
Approach to Testing
For a two-tail test for the mean, known:
Convert sample statistic ( ) to test statistic (Z
statistic )
Determine the critical Z values for a specified
level of significance o from a table or
computer
Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the
rejection region, reject H
0
; otherwise do not
reject H
0

X
Do not reject H
0
Reject H
0
Reject H
0
There are two
cutoff values
(critical values),
defining the
regions of
rejection
Two-Tail Tests
o/2
-Z

0

H
0
: = 3
H
1
: = 3
+Z

o/2
Lower
critical
value
Upper
critical
value
3

Z

X

6 Steps in
Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null hypothesis, H
0
and the
alternative hypothesis, H
1
2. Choose the level of significance, o, and the
sample size, n
3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and
sampling distribution
4. Determine the critical values that divide the
rejection and nonrejection regions
6 Steps in
Hypothesis Testing
5. Collect data and compute the value of the test
statistic
6. Make the statistical decision and state the
managerial conclusion. If the test statistic falls
into the nonrejection region, do not reject the
null hypothesis H
0
. If the test statistic falls into
the rejection region, reject the null hypothesis.
Express the managerial conclusion in the
context of the problem
(continued)
Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV
sets in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume = 0.8)
1. State the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
H
0
: = 3 H
1
: 3 (This is a two-tail test)
2. Specify the desired level of significance and the
sample size
Suppose that o = 0.05 and n = 100 are chosen
for this test
2.0
.08
.16
100
0.8
3 2.84
n

X
Z =

=
Hypothesis Testing Example
3. Determine the appropriate technique
is known so this is a Z test.
4. Determine the critical values
For o = 0.05 the critical Z values are 1.96
5. Collect the data and compute the test statistic
Suppose the sample results are
n = 100, X = 2.84 ( = 0.8 is assumed known)
So the test statistic is:
(continued)
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
6. Is the test statistic in the rejection region?
o = 0.05/2
-Z= -1.96
0

Reject H
0
if
Z < -1.96 or
Z > 1.96;
otherwise
do not
reject H
0
Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
o = 0.05/2
Reject H
0
+Z= +1.96
Here, Z = -2.0 < -1.96, so the
test statistic is in the rejection
region

6(continued). Reach a decision and interpret the result
-2.0
Since Z = -2.0 < -1.96, we reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that the
mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3
Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
o = 0.05/2
-Z= -1.96
0

o = 0.05/2
Reject H
0
+Z= +1.96
p-Value Approach to Testing
p-value: Probability of obtaining a test
statistic more extreme ( or > ) than the
observed sample value given H
0
is true
Also called observed level of significance
Smallest value of o for which H
0
can be
rejected
p-Value Approach to Testing
Convert Sample Statistic (e.g., ) to Test
Statistic (e.g., Z statistic )
Obtain the p-value from a table or computer
Compare the p-value with o
If p-value < o , reject H
0

If p-value > o , do not reject H
0

X
(continued)
0.0228
o/2 = 0.025
p-Value Example
Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is = 3.0?
-1.96 0

-2.0
0.0228 2.0) P(Z
0.0228 2.0) P(Z
= >
= <
Z

1.96
2.0
X = 2.84 is translated
to a Z score of Z = -2.0
p-value
= 0.0228 + 0.0228 = 0.0456
0.0228
o/2 = 0.025
Compare the p-value with o
If p-value < o , reject H
0

If p-value > o , do not reject H
0

Here: p-value = 0.0456
o = 0.05
Since 0.0456 < 0.05,
we reject the null
hypothesis
(continued)
p-Value Example
0.0228
o/2 = 0.025
-1.96 0

-2.0
Z

1.96
2.0
0.0228
o/2 = 0.025
Connection to Confidence Intervals
For X = 2.84, = 0.8 and n = 100, the 95%
confidence interval is:



2.6832 2.9968

Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized
mean (3.0), we reject the null hypothesis at o = 0.05
100
0.8
(1.96) 2.84 to
100
0.8
(1.96) - 2.84 +
One-Tail Tests
In many cases, the alternative hypothesis
focuses on a particular direction
H
0
: 3
H
1
: < 3
H
0
: 3
H
1
: > 3
This is a lower-tail test since the
alternative hypothesis is focused on
the lower tail below the mean of 3
This is an upper-tail test since the
alternative hypothesis is focused on
the upper tail above the mean of 3
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
There is only one
critical value, since
the rejection area is
in only one tail
Lower-Tail Tests
o
-Z
0

H
0
: 3
H
1
: < 3
Z

X

Critical value
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
Upper-Tail Tests
o
Z
0

H
0
: 3
H
1
: > 3
There is only one
critical value, since
the rejection area is
in only one tail
Critical value
Z

X

_

Example: Upper-Tail Z Test
for Mean (o Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bills have
increased, and now average over $52 per
month. The company wishes to test this
claim. (Assume o = 10 is known)
H
0
: 52 the average is not over $52 per month
H
1
: > 52 the average is greater than $52 per month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
managers claim)
Form hypothesis test:
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
Suppose that o = 0.10 is chosen for this test

Find the rejection region:
o = 0.10
1.28
0

Reject H
0
Reject H
0
if Z > 1.28
Example: Find Rejection Region
(continued)
Review:
One-Tail Critical Value
Z .07 .09
1.1 .8790 .8810 .8830
1.2
.8980 .9015
1.3 .9147 .9162 .9177
z
0 1.28
.08
Standardized Normal
Distribution Table (Portion)
What is Z given o = 0.10?
o = 0.10
Critical Value
= 1.28
0.90
.8997
0.10
0.90
Obtain sample and compute the test statistic

Suppose a sample is taken with the following
results: n = 64, X = 53.1 (o=10 was assumed known)
Then the test statistic is:
0.88
64
10
52 53.1
n

X
Z =

=
Example: Test Statistic
(continued)
Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
Example: Decision
o = 0.10
1.28
0

Reject H
0
Do not reject H
0
since Z = 0.88 1.28
i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the
mean bill is over $52
Z = 0.88
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
(continued)
Reject H
0
o = 0.10
Do not reject H
0
1.28
0

Reject H
0
Z = 0.88
Calculate the p-value and compare to o
(assuming that = 52.0)
(continued)
0.1894
0.8106 1 0.88) P(Z
64 10/
52.0 53.1
Z P
53.1) X P(
=
= > =
|
.
|

\
|
> =
>
p-value = 0.1894
p -Value Solution
Do not reject H
0
since p-value = 0.1894 > o = 0.10
t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
( Unknown)
Convert sample statistic ( ) to a t test statistic


X
The test statistic is:
n
S
X
t
1 - n

=
Hypothesis
Tests for
Known Unknown o Known o Unknown
(Z test)
(t test)
Example: Two-Tail Test
(o Unknown)
The average cost of a
hotel room in New York
is said to be $168 per
night. A random sample
of 25 hotels resulted in
X = $172.50 and
S = $15.40. Test at the
o = 0.05 level.
(Assume the population distribution is normal)
H
0
: = 168
H
1
: = 168
o = 0.05
n = 25
o is unknown, so
use a t statistic
Critical Value:
t
24
= 2.0639
Example Solution:
Two-Tail Test
Do not reject H
0
: not sufficient evidence that
true mean cost is different than $168
Reject H
0
Reject H
0
o/2=.025
-t
n-1,/2
Do not reject H
0
0

o/2=.025
-2.0639
2.0639
1.46
25
15.40
168 172.50
n
S
X
t
1 n
=

1.46
H
0
: = 168
H
1
: = 168
t
n-1,/2
Connection to Confidence Intervals
For X = 172.5, S = 15.40 and n = 25, the 95%
confidence interval is:

172.5 - (2.0639) 15.4/ 25 to 172.5 + (2.0639) 15.4/ 25

166.14 178.86

Since this interval contains the Hypothesized mean (168),
we do not reject the null hypothesis at o = 0.05
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
Involves categorical variables
Two possible outcomes
Success (possesses a certain characteristic)
Failure (does not possesses that characteristic)
Fraction or proportion of the population in the
success category is denoted by
Proportions
Sample proportion in the success category is
denoted by p




When both n and n(1-) are at least 5, p can
be approximated by a normal distribution with
mean and standard deviation

size sample
sample in successes of number
n
X
p = =
t = p
n
) (1

t t
=
p
(continued)
The sampling
distribution of p is
approximately
normal, so the test
statistic is a Z
value:
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
n
) (1
p
Z

=
n > 5
and
n(1-) > 5
Hypothesis
Tests for p
n < 5
or
n(1-) < 5
Not discussed
in this chapter
An equivalent form
to the last slide,
but in terms of the
number of
successes, X:
Z Test for Proportion
in Terms of Number of Successes
) (1 n
n X
Z
t t
t

=
X > 5
and
n-X > 5
Hypothesis
Tests for X
X < 5
or
n-X < 5
Not discussed
in this chapter
Example: Z Test for Proportion
A marketing company
claims that it receives
8% responses from its
mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample
of 500 were surveyed
with 25 responses.
Test at the o = 0.05
significance level.
Check:
n = (500)(.08) = 40
n(1-) = (500)(.92) = 460


Z Test for Proportion: Solution
o = 0.05
n = 500, p = 0.05
Reject H
0
at o = 0.05
H
0
: = 0.08
H
1
: = 0.08
Critical Values: 1.96
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
z
0
Reject Reject
.025 .025
1.96
-2.47
There is sufficient
evidence to reject the
companys claim of 8%
response rate.
2.47
500
.08) .08(1
.08 .05
n
) (1
p
Z =

=
t t
t
-1.96
Do not reject H
0
Reject H
0
Reject H
0
o/2 = .025
1.96
0

Z = -2.47
Calculate the p-value and compare to o
(For a two-tail test the p-value is always two-tail)
(continued)
0.0136 2(0.0068)
2.47) P(Z 2.47) P(Z
= =
> + s
p-value = 0.0136:
p-Value Solution
Reject H
0
since p-value = 0.0136 < o = 0.05
Z = 2.47
-1.96
o/2 = .025
0.0068 0.0068
Reject
H
0
: > 52
Do not reject
H
0
: > 52
The Power of a Test
The power of the test is the probability of
correctly rejecting a false H
0

52 50
Suppose we correctly reject H
0
: > 52
when in fact the true mean is = 50
o
Power
= 1-
Reject
H
0
: > 52
Do not reject
H
0
: > 52
Type II Error
Suppose we do not reject H
0
: > 52 when in fact
the true mean is = 50
52 50
This is the true
distribution of x if = 50
This is the range of x where
H
0
is not rejected
Prob. of type II
error =
Reject
H
0
: > 52
Do not reject
H
0
: > 52
Type II Error
Suppose we do not reject H
0
: > 52 when in fact
the true mean is = 50
o
52 50

Here, = P( X > cutoff ) if = 50
(continued)
Reject
H
0
: > 52
Do not reject
H
0
: > 52
Suppose n = 64 , = 6 , and o = .05
o
52 50
So = P( x > 50.766 ) if = 50
Calculating
50.766
64
6
1.645 52
n

Z X cutoff = = = =
o
o
(for H
0
: > 52)
50.766
Reject
H
0
: > 52
Do not reject
H
0
: > 52
0.1539 0.8461 1.0 1.02) P(z
64
6
50 50.766
z P 50) | 50.766 x P( = = > =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> = = >
Suppose n = 64 , = 6 , and o = 0.05
52 50
Calculating and
Power of the test
(continued)
Probability of
type II error:
= 0.1539
Power
= 1 -
= 0.8461
50.766
The probability of
correctly rejecting a
false null hypothesis is
0.8641
Power of the Test
Conclusions regarding the power of the test:

1. A one-tail test is more powerful than a two-tail test
2. An increase in the level of significance (o) results in
an increase in power
3. An increase in the sample size results in an
increase in power


Two-Sample Tests
Two-Sample Tests
Two-Sample Tests
Population
Means,
Independe
nt Samples
Means,
Related
Samples
Population
Variances
Population 1 vs.
independent
Population 2
Same population
before vs. after
treatment
Variance 1 vs.
Variance 2
Examples:
Population
Proportion
s
Proportion 1 vs.
Proportion 2
Difference Between Two Means
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
Goal: Test hypothesis or form
a confidence interval for the
difference between two
population means,
1

2

The point estimate for the
difference is
X
1
X
2
*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Independent Samples
Population
means,
independent
samples
Different data sources
Unrelated
Independent
Sample selected from one
population has no effect on the
sample selected from the other
population
Use the difference between 2
sample means
Use Z test, a pooled-variance t
test, or a separate-variance t
test
*

1
and
2

known

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Difference Between Two Means
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
*
Use a Z test
statistic
Use S
p
to estimate
unknown , use a t test
statistic and pooled
standard deviation

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Use S
1
and S
2
to
estimate unknown
1

and
2
, use a separate-
variance t test
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known

1
and
2
Known
Assumptions:

Samples are randomly
and
independently drawn

Population distributions
are
normal or both sample
sizes
are > 30

Population standard
deviations are known
*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
and the standard error of
X
1
X
2
is
When
1
and
2
are known
and both populations are
normal or both sample sizes
are at least 30, the test
statistic is a Z-value
2
2
2
1
2
1
X X
n

2 1
+ =

(continued)

1
and
2
Known
*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
( ) ( )
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 1
2 1
n

X X
Z
+

=
The test statistic for

1

2
is:

1
and
2
Known
*
(continued)

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Hypothesis Tests for
Two Population Means
Lower-tail test:

H
0
:
1
>
2

H
1
:
1
<
2

i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
> 0
H
1
:
1

2
< 0
Upper-tail test:

H
0
:
1

2
H
1
:
1
>
2
i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
0
H
1
:
1

2
> 0
Two-tail test:

H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1

2
i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
= 0
H
1
:
1

2
0
Two Population Means, Independent
Samples
Two Population Means, Independent
Samples
Lower-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
> 0
H
1
:
1

2
< 0
Upper-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
0
H
1
:
1

2
> 0
Two-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
= 0
H
1
:
1

2
0
o o/2 o/2 o
-z
o
-z
o/2
z
o
z
o/2
Reject H
0
if Z < -Z
o
Reject H
0
if Z > Z
o
Reject H
0
if Z < -Z
o/2

or Z > Z
o/2

Hypothesis tests for
1

2

Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known ( )
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 1
n

Z X X +
The confidence interval for

1

2
is:
Confidence Interval,

1
and
2
Known
*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known

1
and
2
Unknown,
Assumed Equal
Assumptions:

Samples are randomly
and
independently drawn

Populations are
normally
distributed or both
sample
sizes are at least 30

Population variances
are
unknown but assumed
equal

*
1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
(continued)
*
Forming interval
estimates:

The population
variances
are assumed equal, so
use
the two sample
variances
and pool them to
estimate the common

2

the test statistic is a t
value
with (n
1
+ n
2
2)
degrees
of freedom

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Assumed Equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
The pooled variance is
(continued)
( ) ( )
1) n (n
S 1 n S 1 n
S
2 1
2
2 2
2
1 1
2
p
+
+
=
( ) 1
*
1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Assumed Equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
Where t has (n
1
+ n
2
2) d.f.,
and
( ) ( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
2 1
2
p
2 1
2 1
n
1
n
1
S
X X
t
The test statistic for

1

2
is:
*
( ) ( )
1) n ( ) 1 (n
S 1 n S 1 n
S
2 1
2
2 2
2
1 1
2
p
+
+
=
(continued)

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Assumed Equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
+
2 1
2
p 2 - n n
2 1
n
1
n
1
S t X X
2 1
The confidence interval for

1

2
is:
Where
( ) ( )
1) n ( ) 1 (n
S 1 n S 1 n
S
2 1
2
2 2
2
1 1
2
p
+
+
=
*
Confidence Interval,

1
and
2
Unknown

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Pooled-Variance t Test: Example
You are a financial analyst for a brokerage firm. Is
there a difference in dividend yield between stocks
listed on the NYSE & NASDAQ? You collect the
following data:
NYSE NASDAQ
Number 21 25
Sample mean 3.27 2.53
Sample std dev 1.30 1.16
Assuming both populations
are
approximately normal with
equal variances, is
there a difference in
average
yield (o = 0.05)?
Calculating the Test Statistic
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1.5021
1) 25 ( 1) - (21
1.16 1 25 1.30 1 21
1) n ( ) 1 (n
S 1 n S 1 n
S
2 2
2 1
2
2 2
2
1 1
2
p
=
+
+
=
+
+
=
( ) ( ) ( )
2.040
25
1
21
1
5021 . 1
0 2.53 3.27
n
1
n
1
S
X X
t
2 1
2
p
2 1
2 1
=
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
The test statistic
is:
Solution
H
0
:
1
-
2
= 0 i.e. (
1
=
2
)
H
1
:
1
-
2
0 i.e. (
1

2
)
o = 0.05
df = 21 + 25 - 2 = 44
Critical Values: t = 2.0154

Test Statistic:
Decision:

Conclusion:

Reject H
0
at o = 0.05
There is evidence of a
difference in means.
t
0
2.0154 -2.0154
.025
Reject H
0
Reject H
0
.025
2.040
2.040
25
1
21
1
5021 . 1
2.53 3.27
t =
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known

1
and
2
Unknown,
Not Assumed Equal
Assumptions:

Samples are randomly
and
independently drawn

Populations are
normally
distributed or both
sample
sizes are at least 30

Population variances
are
unknown but cannot be
assumed to be equal

*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
(continued)
*
Forming the test statistic:

The population
variances
are not assumed equal,
so
include the two sample
variances in the
computation
of the t-test statistic

the test statistic is a t
value
with v degrees of
freedom
(see next slide)

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Not Assumed Equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
The number of degrees of
freedom is the integer
portion of:
(continued)
1 1
2 2
2

|
|
.
|

\
|
+

|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
=
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
n
n
S
n
n
S
n
S
n
S
v
*

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Not Assumed Equal
Population
means,
independent
samples

1
and
2

known
( ) ( )
2
2
2
1
2
1
2 1
2 1
n
S
n
S
X X
t
+

=
The test statistic for

1

2
is:
*
(continued)

1
and
2

unknown,
assumed equal

1
and
2

unknown, not
assumed equal

1
and
2
Unknown,
Not Assumed Equal
Related Populations
Tests Means of 2 Related Populations
Paired or matched samples
Repeated measures (before/after)
Use difference between paired values:


Eliminates Variation Among Subjects
Assumptions:
Both Populations Are Normally Distributed
Or, if not Normal, use large samples
Related
samples
D
i
= X
1i
- X
2i
Mean Difference,
D
Known

The i
th
paired difference is D
i
, where
Related
samples
D
i
= X
1i
- X
2i
The point estimate
for the population
mean paired
difference is D :
n
D
D
n
1 i
i
=
=
Suppose the population
standard deviation of the
difference scores,
D
, is
known
n is the number of pairs in the paired sample
The test statistic for the mean
difference is a Z value:
Paired
samples
n

D
Z
D
D

=
Mean Difference,
D
Known
(continued)
Where

D
= hypothesized mean difference

D
= population standard dev. of differences
n = the sample size (number of pairs)

Confidence Interval,
D
Known
The confidence interval for
D
is
Paired
samples
n

Z D
D

Where
n = the sample size
(number of pairs in the paired sample)
If
D
is unknown, we can estimate the
unknown population standard deviation
with a sample standard deviation:

Related
samples
1 n
) D (D
S
n
1 i
2
i
D

=
The sample
standard deviation
is
Mean Difference,
D
Unknown
Use a paired t test, the test statistic for
D is now a t statistic, with n-1 d.f.: Paired
samples
1 n
) D (D
S
n
1 i
2
i
D

=
n
S
D
t
D
D

=
Where t has n - 1 d.f.
and S
D
is:
Mean Difference,
D
Unknown
(continued)
The confidence interval for
D
is
Paired
samples
1 n
) D (D
S
n
1 i
2
i
D

=
n
S
t D
D
1 n

where
Confidence Interval,
D
Unknown
Lower-tail test:

H
0
:
D
> 0
H
1
:
D
< 0
Upper-tail test:

H
0
:
D
0

H
1
:
D
> 0

Two-tail test:

H
0
:
D
= 0

H
1
:
D
0
Paired Samples
Hypothesis Testing for
Mean Difference,
D
Unknown

o o/2 o/2 o
-t
o
-t
o/2
t
o
t
o/2
Reject H
0
if t < -t
o
Reject H
0
if t > t
o
Reject H
0
if t < -t
o/2

or t > t
o/2

Where t has n - 1 d.f.
Assume you send your salespeople to a customer
service training workshop. Has the training made a
difference in the number of complaints? You collect
the following data:

Paired t Test Example
Number of Complaints: (2) - (1)
Salesperson Before (1) After (2) Difference, D
i


C.B. 6 4 - 2
T.F. 20 6 -14
M.H. 3 2 - 1
R.K. 0 0 0
M.O. 4 0 - 4
-21
D =
E
D
i


n
5.67
1 n
) D (D
S
2
i
D
=

= -4.2
Has the training made a difference in the number of
complaints (at the 0.01 level)?
- 4.2 D =
1.66
5 5.67/
0 4.2
n / S
D
t
D
D
=

=

=
H
0
:
D
=
0
H
1
:
D
=
0
Test Statistic:
Critical Value =
4.604 d.f. = n - 1 = 4
Reject
o/2
- 4.604 4.604
Decision: Do not reject
H
0
(t stat is not in the reject region)
Conclusion: There is
not a significant
change in the number
of complaints.
Paired t Test: Solution
Reject
o/2
- 1.66
o =
.01
Two Population Proportions
Goal: test a hypothesis or form a
confidence interval for the difference
between two population proportions,

1

2

The point estimate
for the difference is
Population
proportions
Assumptions:
n
1

1
> 5 , n
1
(1-
1
) > 5
n
2

2
> 5 , n
2
(1-
2
) > 5
2 1
p p
Two Population Proportions
Population
proportions
2 1
2 1
n n
X X
p
+
+
=
The pooled estimate for the
overall proportion is:
where X
1
and X
2
are the numbers from
samples 1 and 2 with the characteristic of
interest
Since we begin by assuming the
null hypothesis is true, we assume

1
=
2
and pool the two sample
estimates
Two Population Proportions
Population
proportions
( ) ( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
2 1
2 1 2 1
n
1
n
1
) p (1 p
p p
Z

The test statistic for
p
1
p
2
is a Z statistic:
(continued)
2
2
2
1
1
1
2 1
2 1
n
X
p ,
n
X
p ,
n n
X X
p = =
+
+
= where
Confidence Interval for
Two Population Proportions
Population
proportions
( )
2
2 2
1
1 1
2 1
n
) p (1 p
n
) p (1 p
Z p p

The confidence interval for

1

2
is:
Hypothesis Tests for
Two Population Proportions
Population
proportions
Lower-tail test:

H
0
:
1
>
2

H
1
:
1
<
2

i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
> 0
H
1
:
1

2
< 0
Upper-tail test:

H
0
:
1

2
H
1
:
1
>
2
i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
0
H
1
:
1

2
> 0
Two-tail test:

H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1

2
i.e.,
H
0
:
1

2
= 0
H
1
:
1

2
0
Hypothesis Tests for
Two Population Proportions
Population
proportions
Lower-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
> 0
H
1
:
1

2
< 0
Upper-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
0
H
1
:
1

2
> 0
Two-tail test:
H
0
:
1

2
= 0
H
1
:
1

2
0
o o/2 o/2 o
-z
o
-z
o/2
z
o
z
o/2
Reject H
0
if Z < -Z
o
Reject H
0
if Z > Z
o
Reject H
0
if Z < -Z
o/2

or Z > Z
o/2

(continued)
Example:
Two population Proportions
Is there a significant difference between the
proportion of men and the proportion of
women who will vote Yes on Proposition A?


In a random sample, 36 of 72 men and 31 of
50 women indicated they would vote Yes

Test at the .05 level of significance
The hypothesis test is:

H
0
:
1

2
= 0 (the two proportions are equal)
H
1
:
1

2
0 (there is a significant difference between
proportions)
The sample proportions are:
Men: p
1
= 36/72 = .50
Women: p
2
= 31/50 = .62
.549
122
67
50 72
31 36
n n
X X
p
2 1
2 1
= =
+
+
=
+
+
=
The pooled estimate for the overall
proportion is:
Example:
Two population Proportions
(continued)
The test statistic for
1

2
is:
Example:
Two population Proportions
(continued)
.025
-1.96

1.96

.025
-1.31

Decision: Do not reject
H
0

Conclusion: There is
not significant
evidence of a
difference in
proportions who will
vote yes between men
and women.
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
1.31
50
1
72
1
.549) (1 .549
0 .62 .50
n
1
n
1
p (1 p
p p
z
2 1
2 1 2 1
=
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
+

=
)
t t
Reject H
0
Reject H
0
Critical Values =
1.96
For o = .05
Hypothesis Tests for Variances
Tests for Two
Population
Variances
F test statistic
H
0
:
1
2
=

2
2

H
1
:
1
2

2
2

Two-tail test
Lower-tail test
Upper-tail test
H
0
:
1
2
>
2
2

H
1
:
1
2
<

2
2

H
0
:
1
2

2
2

H
1
:
1
2
>

2
2

*
Hypothesis Tests for Variances
Tests for Two
Population
Variances
F test statistic
2
2
2
1
S
S
F =
The F test
statistic is:
= Variance of Sample 1
n
1
- 1 = numerator degrees of freedom
n
2
- 1 = denominator degrees of freedom
= Variance of Sample 2
2
1
S
2
2
S
*
(continued)
The F critical value is found from the F table
There are two appropriate degrees of freedom:
numerator and denominator


In the F table,
numerator degrees of freedom determine the column
denominator degrees of freedom determine the row
The F Distribution
where df
1
= n
1
1 ; df
2
= n
2
1
2
2
2
1
S
S
F =
F 0
Finding the Rejection Region
L
2
2
2
1
U
2
2
2
1
F
S
S
F
F
S
S
F
< =
> = rejection
region for a
two-tail test is:
o

F
L

Reject
H
0
Do not
reject H
0
F
0
o

F
U

Reject H
0
Do not
reject H
0
F 0
o/2

Reject H
0
Do not
reject H
0
F
U

H
0
:
1
2
=

2
2

H
1
:
1
2

2
2

H
0
:
1
2
>
2
2

H
1
:
1
2
<

2
2

H
0
:
1
2

2
2

H
1
:
1
2
>

2
2

F
L

o/2

Reject
H
0
Reject H
0
if F < F
L
Reject H
0
if F > F
U
Finding the Rejection Region
F 0
o/2

Reject H
0
Do not
reject H
0
F
U

H
0
:
1
2
=

2
2

H
1
:
1
2

2
2

F
L

o/2

Reject
H
0
(continued)
2. Find F
L
using the formula:
Where F
U*
is from the F table
with n
2
1 numerator and n
1
1
denominator degrees of freedom
(i.e., switch the d.f. from F
U
)

* U
L
F
1
F =
1. Find F
U
from the F table
for n
1
1 numerator and
n
2
1 denominator
degrees of freedom
To find the critical F
values:

F Test: An Example
You are a financial analyst for a brokerage firm. You
want to compare dividend yields between stocks listed
on the NYSE & NASDAQ. You collect the following data:
NYSE NASDAQ
Number 21 25
Mean 3.27 2.53
Std dev 1.30 1.16

Is there a difference in the
variances between the NYSE
& NASDAQ at the o = 0.05 level?
F Test: Example Solution
Form the hypothesis test:
H
0
:
2
1

2
2
= 0 (there is no difference between variances)
H
1
:
2
1

2
2
0 (there is a difference between variances)

Numerator:
n
1
1 = 21 1 = 20 d.f.
Denominator:
n
2
1 = 25 1 = 24 d.f.

F
U
= F
.025, 20, 24
= 2.33
Find the F critical values for o = 0.05:


Numerator:
n
2
1 = 25 1 = 24 d.f.
Denominator:
n
1
1 = 21 1 = 20 d.f.

F
L
= 1/F
.025, 24, 20
= 1/2.41
= 0.415
F
U
: F
L
:
The test statistic is:
0
256 . 1
16 . 1
30 . 1
S
S
F
2
2
2
2
2
1
= = =
o/2 = .025

F
U
=2.33
Reject H
0
Do not
reject H
0
H
0
:
1
2
=
2
2

H
1
:
1
2

2
2

F Test: Example Solution
F = 1.256 is not in the rejection
region, so we do not reject H
0

(continued)
Conclusion: There is not sufficient evidence
of a difference in variances at o = .05

F
L
=0.43
o/2 = .025

Reject H
0
F