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Hurricane Evacuation Analysis and Decision Support Utility Program

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Next

generation version of the Emergency Transportation Information System (ETIS) Program

Dynamic

Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis Hourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation Host Shelter Demand Estimation Evacuation Shutdown Calculation

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Dynamic

Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting

Simulates

a gradual loading of evacuation road network based on behavioral surveys Calculates dynamic clearance times based on specific storm scenario Provides dynamic hourly critical link data based on specific storm scenario
For entire state For entire roadway length (I 75, US 231, SR 60)

Cumulative

hourly evacuating vehicle and population data (in and out-of county) for all risk counties

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ETIS Loading Curve

HEADS UP Loading Curves

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Dynamic
Max

Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting

commute time per link or destination Reverse lane impact determination Link construction designation capability Sensitivity analysis for phased evacuations Evaluation of clearance time impacts of road closures and detours Re-routing analysis

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Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis

Automatically

ingest real time traffic counter data for DOT website

Traffic Volume Hourly Average Speed Hourly Historical Hourly Average Volumes

Dynamic

compare and contrast analysis between demand forecast and counter data Capability key to queue length calculation and evacuation shutdown functions

DOT Traffic Counter Website

DOT Traffic Counter Data

DOT Traffic Counter Data

Counter Data Comparison

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Hourly

Traffic Queue Length Estimation

Determine

length of traffic queue for each critical link Graphic depiction of queue length on program map
Host

Shelter Demand Estimation

Host

shelter determination for every county in the state Predict number of vehicles and people entering host county by roadway Calculation of time to first arrival of evacuation vehicles and peak vehicle volume based on traffic counter data

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Evacuation
Based

Shutdown Calculation

on hourly average speed data from real-time traffic counters Determine which interchange and upstream roadway traffic should be diverted to avoid adding to queue Icon on map that shows average speed thresholds at each counter location providing indication of possible queue
Map

based data input and model results Coupled with remote statewide mesoscale weather monitoring system (FAWN, DOT and other future met stations)

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FAWN

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Scenario
Non

building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions

Event: For scenario development during training events and exercises;

Testing various strategies and options in developing regional plans; and General contingency planning.

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Scenario

building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions During actual events:
Investigate options for deploying law enforcement and traffic management resources; Assess impact of reverse lane options; Study clearance time and operational benefits of phased evacuations; and Analyze effects of evacuation assumptions (e.g., shadow evacuations, in-county sheltering, etc.); and Anticipate exigent circumstances.

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Real-time

monitoring of evacuation progress and shelter demand Automatic TTMS ingestion capability allows user to:
Monitor average volume and speeds on critical and strategic links; Relate observed values against predicted volumes to assess progress and effectiveness of overall evacuation and traffic management efforts; Calculate realistic estimates of potential shelter demand and arrival timing of evacuees for host counties;

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Real-time

monitoring of evacuation progress and shelter demand Automatic TTMS ingestion capability allows user to:
Realize more rapidly accidents and other circumstances that cause or worsen congestion; and Obtain better appraisals of actual participation rates and assess the effectiveness of public information efforts.

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Emergency Management

Regional and multi-regional clearance times Evacuation decision making and coordination Designation and preparation of host shelter counties Evacuation shutdown decision making and coordination

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Traffic Operations

More effective deployment of law enforcement resources

Pre-stage personnel and materiel to predicted critical links throughout the entire evacuation event Use time-based, most congested link data to develop rerouting schemes to divert traffic away from expected congested segments

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Traffic Operations

More effective deployment of law enforcement resources

Determine duration of deployment and possible shifts needed Designate operational sectors and responsibilities for entire state Anticipate routine and other reporting requirements between field and Emergency Operations Centers

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Traffic Operations

Implementation of traffic management measures tailored to situation

Pre-stage and continue deployment of highway incident management teams based on service to volume ratios and TTMS data Deploy ITS resources (i.e., VMS, AM-radios, HAR) for most effective coverage based on service to volume ratios Analyze options and coordinate operations for reverselaning and re-routing

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Traffic Operations

Evacuation Shutdown

Determine lead times needed to close interchanges and clear congested roadways based on TTMS average speed data and queue length function
Identify interchanges and alternate routes to clear roadway and reduce queues using queue length determination and evacuation shutdown functions

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Shelter Operations

Improving capabilities in host shelter counties

Designate likely host shelter counties based on predicted traffic volumes for roadways and potential bottlenecks Determine lead time for host counties to prepare for sheltering mission Develop a more efficient shelter opening scheme based on predicted numbers of evacuees and entering routes

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Shelter Operations

Opening refuges of last resort

Determine in which counties and along what roadways refuges may have to be opened based on queue length function.
In conjunction with HURREVAC, determine lead time for counties to prepare refuges. Using travel demand forecast module, determine potential refuge demand along congested roadways.

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Public Information

Pre-Departure Advisories

Using broadcast media and 511 (Know before you go) inform evacuees of potential congested areas and suggest alternate routes.
Provide information to potential evacuees of worst household commute times and queue lengths depending on routes selected and evacuation start times.

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Public Information

Pre-Departure Advisories

Forewarn potential motorists of what to expect once evacuation trip has begun based on real time data from TTMS, travel demand, queue length and worst household commute time data. Using evacuation shutdown lead times, prepare advisories encouraging in-county evacuation and avoidance of occluded roadways.

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Public Information

Event Specific Advisories to Motorists

Requires ITS and other methods of communicating with evacuees already on roadway (i.e., HAR, VMS, portable radio transmitters, radio)
Forewarn potential evacuees of what to expect at traffic bottlenecks and congested areas based on TTMS and travel demand forecasting model.

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Implementation

of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations Public Information

Event Specific Advisories to Motorists

Recommend local sheltering options and alternate routes to motorists along congested roadways and in traffic queues. Provide times to reach likely destination locations based on TTMS data and travel demand forecast model. Advise motorist to clear roadways and seek refuges once evacuation shutdown lead times are realized.

HEADS UP - In Summary
The

capability to manage evacuations, not just initiate them

Allows

analysis of the impacts of alternate courses of action and decision making. realistic estimates of regional evacuation times and impacts. real time monitoring and analysis of evacuation situation better planning for exigent situations on evacuation roadways

More

Allows

Permits

HEADS UP - In Summary
The

capability to manage evacuations, not just initiate them

Better

prepare host shelter jurisdictions of potential operational needs. Implications for Public Information (511and Know before you Go) Emergency Public Information (along roadways). Possible application for other emergencies that precipitate evacuations and diversions including Nuclear Power, Terrorism, Hazmat incidents

Summary

Operations AND information management Proactive rather than reactive Disasters = Movement Management Includes data collection and analysis tools Contingent on acquiring data, analyzing and interpreting it and then acting on it