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Reliability Prediction

A Quest for Reliable Parameters


By
Yair Shai

Goals
Compare the MTBCF & MTTCF parameters in view of complex systems engineering. Failure repair policy as the backbone for realistic MTBCF calculation. Motivation for modification of the technical specification requirements.
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Promo : Description of Parameters


t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 ....... time

Failure Event of an Item Repairable Items:

r =Number of Failures

t
=
i

Mean Time Between Failures


Non Repairable Items:

t
=
i

Mean Time To Failure


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MTBF = MTTF ??
An assumption:

Failed item returns to As Good As New status after repair or renewal.


note: Time To Repair is not considered.
UP TIME

DOWN

Critical Failures
Moving towards System Design A System Failure resulting in (temporary or permanent) Mission Termination.
COMPUTER SUBSYSTEM COMPUTER

X X

A simple configuration of parallel hot Redundancy.

A Failure: any computer failure A Critical Failure: two computers failed


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Critical Failures
A clue for Design Architecture
MTBCF

Mean Time Between Critical Failures


MTTCF

Mean Time To Critical Failure

SAME?

Remember the assumptions

Determining the failure repair policy: COLD REPAIR

No time for repair actions during the mission


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Functional System Design


Switch control CPU
POWER SUPPLY

UNIT A UNIT B

ANTENA ANTENA

4 CHANNEL RECEVER CONTROLER

UNIT C UNIT D

sw

ANTENA ANTENA

CPU
POWER SUPPLY POWER SUPPLY

2/4

Operational Demand: At least two receiver units and one antenna should work to operate the system.
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From System Design to Reliability Model


A
CPU PS1 B CONT x CPU PS1 x PS2 x C D sw ANT ANT ANT

ANT

Is this a Critical Failure ?

2/4

Serial model : Rs = R1x R2 Parallel model : Rs = 1- (1-R1)x(1-R2) K out of N model : Rs = Binomial Solution
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From RBD Logic Diagram to Reliability Function


Simple mathematical manipulation:

Rsys(t)= f( serial / parallel / K out of N)


Classic parameter evaluation:

MTBF Rsys(t )dt MTTF


MTBCF MTTCF

WARNING !!!
Is this realistic ?

After[ each S.Zacks, repair Springer-Verlag of a critical failure 1991,-Introduction The whole system To returns Reliability to status Analysis, As Good Par As 3.5] New.
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MTBCF vs. MTTCF


A New Interpretation
Common practice interpretation:
First

MTBCF = MTTCF = MTTCFF


Each repair Resets the time count to idle status (or) Each failure is the first failure.

Realistic interpretation:

MTBCF = MTTCF
Only failed Items which cause the failure are repaired to idle. All other components keep on aging.
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Presentation I
Simple 3 aging components serial system model

A 2 2 3 3

C 1 2

HAD WE KNOWN THE FUTURE


2

1 3
3 2 TTCF

A B C

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Presentation II
Simple 3 aging components serial system model

A 1 1 1 2

B 2 2

C 3

HAD WE KNOWN THE FUTURE 4 3 3 4 TBCF

A B C

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Presentation III
Simple 3 aging components serial system model
A
1 1 1 2

B
2 2

C
3

HAD WE KNOWN THE FUTURE 4 3 3 4 TBCF A B C

MTBCF < MTTCF


2 3 1 2

2 3
1 1 1

2
3

1 3 2 TTCF

A B C

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Simulation Method
MONTE CARLO

MATHCAD N=100,000 SETS


N=100,000 SETS
MIN (X1,1 X2,1 X3,1) MIN (X1,2 X2,2 X3,2)
.

MIN (X1,1 X2,1 X3,1) MIN (X1,2 1,2 2,2)


. MIN (X1,N 1,N 2,N) _________________

MIN (X1,N X2,N X3,N) _________________

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1 N min i N i 1

1 N min i N i 1

How BIG is the Difference ?


1. Depends on the System Architecture.
2. Depends on the Time-To-Failure

distribution of each component.


3. The difference in a specific complex

electronic system was found to be ~40% Note: True in redundant systems even when all components have constant failure rates.
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Why Does It Matter ?


Suppose a specification demand for a systems reliability : MTBCF = 600 hour Suppose the manufacturer prediction of the parameter: MTBCF = 780 hour

-40%

ATTENTION !!! How was it CALCULATED ????


Is this MTBCF or MTTCF ????

Real MTBCF = 480 < 600 (spec)


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Example 1
Aging serial system each component is weibull distributed

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Example 2
Two redundant subsystems in series each component is exponentially distributed

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Constant failure rate

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serial

Constant failure rate parallel

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A Comment about Asymptotic Availability

E{TTF } E{TBF } A E{TTF } E{TTR} E{TBF } E{TTR}


(*) [ S.Zacks, Springer-Verlag 1991, Introduction To Reliability Analysis, Par 4.3]
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(*)

Repair policies
1. Hot repair is allowed for redundant components. 2. All components are renewed on every failure event. 3. All failed components are renewed on every failure event. 4. Failed components are renewed only in blocks which caused the system failure. 5. Failed subsystems are only partially renewed.
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Conclusions
System configuration and distribution of components determine the gap. Repair policy should be specified in advance to determine calculation method. Flexible software solutions are needed to simulate real MTBCF for a given RBD. Predict MTBCF not MTTCF
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