Power Transmission and Distribution

Probabilistic Reliability Analysis Supporting Distribution Network Expansion

Klaus Schilling

Overview

Introduction System Modelling and Data Study Results Summary

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Aspects Influencing System Reliability in Liberalized Markets

Reduced maintenance

Rising component age

Increasing component load

Component availability
Staff reduction, loss of know how Simplified network structure

System reliability
[Schwan et al., 2003]

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General Sequence of a Reliability Analysis

Past system performance Observable part
Equipment reliability data

Failure models

Reliability calculation

Reliability indices

Evaluation / Prognosis
Comparison

Observable part Future system performance

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SINCAL Siemens Network Calculation

Loadflow Short-Circuit Dimensioning of LV Networks Optimal Branching Multiple Fault Harmonics Ripple Control Stability ElectromagneticTransients Eigenvalues / Modal Analysis Optimal Loadflow Load Profile Calculation Load Development Contingency Analysis Distance Protection Over Current Time Protection Simulation of Relay Tripping Motor Starting Line Constants

Reliability
For analysis and planning purposes in all network levels with integrated data base and schematic or topological graphics
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Details on Reliability Calculation

Generation of a failure combination list Examination of a failure combination Network status analysis Identification of supply interruptions Measures for the rectifying of supply interruptions Statistical recording of results

Determination through probability or order AC load flow Supply restoration strategies

Reliability Indices
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Models and Data

Clear boundary of the system and components Network model which corresponds to operation

Load flow / short-circuit model Load model Protection model

Models of failure events

Status of operating equipment Failure models

Failure sequence
Supply restoration models

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Failure Models

Independent single failure (IS)

Failure of one single component

Common-Mode failure (CM)

Simultaneous failure of several components due to a common cause

Multiple earth faults with multiple tripping (ME)

Independent failure of two components in network with resonant earthing on the bases of an existing earth fault

Malfunction of protection device (PM)

Stochastic secondary failure due to failure of the primary protection and tripping of the backup protection device

Unnecessary protection operation (UP)

Stochastic secondary failure due to non-selective tripping of the protection device

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Reliability Indices of the Components Example of the Distribution System

Components IS
A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C 0.0189 900 0.0828 240 0.0163 1145 0.0052 330 0.0002 192 0.0001 192 0.006 390 0.0002 900 0.0019 0.0007 186 0.0041

Outage Models ME PM
0.013 804 0.0033 0.003 240 0.00077 60 0.009 60 0.009 9 0.005 60 0.009

UP
60 0.00013 60 0.00013 43 0.00016 60 0.00013

Cable Overhead line Transformer 110/20 kV Bus bar Outgoing Feeder Receiving Feeder Distribution substation

IS: ME: PM: UP:

Independent single failure Multiple earth fault Protection malfunction Unnecessary protection operation

A: Expected value of failure frequency in yr-1 bzw. km-1yr-1 B: Expected value of outage duration in min. C: Expected value of conditional probability of failure
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Probabilistic Reliability Indices

Symbol Index

Unit

Fi

Frequency of supply interruptions

1/yr

Ti
Qi Pi Ei

Average duration of supply interruptions

Probability of supply interruptions or unavailability (Cumulative) Interrupted power (Cumulative) Energy not served in time

h
1 or min/yr MVA/yr MVAh/yr

Ci

(Cumulative) Cost of interruptions

Expected values

/ yr

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SINCAL Reliability Input and Output Data in Network Diagram

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Study Task
A German 110 kV subtransmission system feeding some 20 kV distribution networks should be analysed with special focus on:

The impact of the 110 kV network and the 20 kV structure on the reliability indices of the medium voltage customers

The comparison of the present reliability level of different distribution networks with benchmarks

The comparison of scenarios of network expansion with respect to investment costs and reliability

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110 kV Subtransmission Network and Supply Area

F J E K H C G B A D

Supply Area 110 kV OHL 110/20 kV Substation Feeding Substation

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Boundaries of the 110 kV Network

Transmission System

EHV / HV

110 kV System

HV / MV

Distribution System

The infeed from transmission network is 100 % reliable The MV networks are modeled as bulk load on the 20 kV busbar
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Schematic Diagram of the 110 kV Network

E F C A

D K J

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Reliability Indices of the Existing 110 kV Network

Frequency of Supply Interruptions Fi in 1/yr
0,45

0.4

Frequency of Supply Interruptions

0,4

0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0

A1 A2 B1 Qi in min/yr 18

Unavailability
B2 B3 B4 C1 C2 C3 D1

E1

E2

F1

F2

G1

H1

H2

J1

J2

K1

16

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Unavailability

Energy Not Served in Time

A2 B1 Ei inA1 MVAh/yr

B2

B3

B4

C1

C2

C3

D1

E1

E2

F1

F2

G1

H1

H2

J1

J2

K1

4,5 4 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 A1 A2 B1 B2 B3 B4 C1 C2 C3 D1 E1 E2 F1 F2 G1 H1 H2 J1 J2 K1

Energy Not Served in Time

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Schematic Diagram of the 20 kV Network

E C

G B

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Boundaries of the 20 kV Network

Subtransmission System

HV / MV

20 kV System

The infeed from subtransmission network is 100 % reliable All MV backup connections are modeled The load is modeled on the MV side of the distribution transformer
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Rural 20 kV Network Area E

E3964 300.0 MVA 100.0 p.u.

Gau-Bischofsheim 1

Gau-Bischofsheim 4

Gau-Bischofsheim 2 Gau-Bischofsheim 3

Gau-Bischofsheim 6

Gau-Bischofsheim 7

Gau-Bischofsheim 9

HARXH5
E3960 300.0 MVA 100.0 p.u.

Harxheim 4

Harxheim 9

Harxheim 1

Harxheim 8

Harxheim 3

Harxheim 7

Bodenheim31

Mommenheim 15

Harxheim 6

Harxheim 2

Harxheim 10

Bodenheim 39

Nackenheim 7

Nackenheim 3

Mommenheim 13

Loerzweiler 6

Nackenheim 2

Nackenheim 18

Nackenheim 17

Nackenheim 20

Nackenheim 8

Nackenheim 9

Mommenheim 8

Mommenheim 7

Mommenheim 3

Mommenheim 4 Mommenheim 1

Loerzweiler 5

Loerzweiler 8 Nackenheim 16 Nackenheim 15 Nackenheim 11

Nackenheim 1/L419 NA02

Nackenheim 1/L414 NA01

Mommenheim 12

Mommenheim 2

Mommenheim 6 Mommenheim 14

Loerzweiler 2 Mommenheim 6

Loerzweiler 3

Loerzweiler 7

Nackenheim 1

Nackenheim 22

Nackenheim 13

Mommenheim 5

Mommenheim 9

MT20201K/KA202020 MO01

Loerzweiler 1

NACKH12

Nackenheim 21

Nackenheim 14

Nackenheim 5

E3962 300.0 MVA 100.0 p.u.

Selzen 1 Mommenheim 10 Nackenheim 4 Nackenheim 6

Schwabsburg 5

Schwabsburg 7

NACKH19

Schwabsburg 6/L349 SW02

Schwabsburg 6/L581 SW01

Schwabsburg 6

SWBSB3

Schwabsburg 1

Schwabsburg 2

Nierstein 22

Nierstein 11

NIERS14

Schwabsburg 4

Substation E

DEXHEIM S1
K3178

Nierstein 32 Nierstein 8
DEXHEIM S1/L87 DEX05

Nierstein 9

DEXHEIM S1/KA123016 DEX01 DEXHEIM S2/L581 DEX02

DEXHEIM S1/KA123017 DEX03 DEXHEIM S2/L350 DEX04

DEXHEIM S1/KA216032 DEX06

Nierstein 2

DEXHEIM S2

Nierstein 13

Nierstein 25

Nierstein 10

Nierstein 3

Nierstein 15

Nierstein 17 Nierstein 2

Nierstein 26

Nierstein 7

Nierstein 6

Nierstein 23

Nierstein 12 Nierstein 1

Nierstein 1/KA216045 NI03

Nierstein 16
Nierstein 1/L432 NI04

Nierstein 1/KA216036 NI01

Nierstein 33

Nierstein 18

Nierstein 1/KA216041 NI02

Dexheim 9

Nierstein 19

Nierstein 20

Nierstein 29

Nierstein 5

E3961 300.0 MVA 100.0 p.u.

Dexheim 6

Dexheim 8

Nierstein 24

Nierstein 4

Nierstein 21

Weinolsheim1 Dexheim 10 Dexheim 2 Dexheim 1 Dienheim 9 Oppenheim 32 Oppenheim 30 Oppenheim 17 Oppenheim 33

Dalheim 4 Dalheim 1

Dexheim 7

Dienheim 1

Dienheim 4

Oppenheim 27

Oppenheim 21

Oppenheim 1/KA224001 OP02

Oppenheim 1/KA224004 OP01

Dienheim 2

Dienheim 3

Dienheim 8

Oppenheim 31

Oppenheim 18

Oppenheim 1/KA224003 OP03

Oppenheim 1

Oppenheim 4

Oppenheim 13

Oppenheim 20

Dalheim 3

Dalheim 2

Dalheim 5

Dienheim 7

Dienheim 5

Dienheim 6

Oppenheim 12

Oppenheim 7

Oppenheim 11

Oppenheim 5

Oppenheim 10

Oppenheim 26

Oppenheim 14

Oppenheim 6

Oppenheim 9

Oppenheim 34

Oppenheim 22

Guntersblum 25

Ludwigshoehe 1

Ludwigshoehe 2

Oppenheim 25

Oppenheim 8

Oppenheim 19

Oppenheim 23

Oppenheim 3

Ludwigshoehe 3

Ludwigshoehe 4

Oppenheim 24

Oppenheim 28

Oppenheim 29

Oppenheim 36

E3963 300.0 MVA 100.0 p.u.

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Reliability Indices of a Rural 20 kV Network

Unavailability Qi in min/yr
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Benchmark Rural Area Average

Distribution stations

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Urban 20 kV Network Area B

GEN_OST

OSTHOF 1b

OSTHOF 1a

OSTHOF 2

MU225K01

MU225K06

RHDUR10

Rheinduerkheim 22

Rheinduerkheim 4

Rheinduerkheim 37

Klaeranlage

Rheinduerkheim 39

HE54

Becker

Rheinduerkheim 28

Osthofen 21

Herrnsheim 5 Herrnsheim 4

Gottwein

Elbatainer

Mainzerstr. 1

Rheinduerkheim 21 Alcoa

MU3/6K17

Rheinduerkheim 27

Rheinduerkheim 6

Rheinduerkheim 41 Weton Herrnsheim 23 Herrnsheim 20 Herrnsheim 6 Herrnsheim 19 Rheinduerkheim 26

Schaerf Herrnsheim 16 Herrnsheim 15 Herrnsheim 17 Herrnsheim 3 Rheinduerkheim 29 Rheinduerkheim 36 Rheinduerkheim 33 Rheinduerkheim 25 Rheinduerkheim 18 Rheinduerkheim 23

MT2/101K

Herrnsheim 7

Krankenhaus 2

Herrnsheim 13

Herrnsheim 14

Herrnsheim 2

Grace

Grace

Herrnsheim 26

Herrnsheim 22

Langgewann

Neu 2

Rheinduerkheim 24

MU1/K138

Paracelsusstr.

Herrnsheim 25

MU1/0K26

MU1/K139

Krankenhaus 3

Krankenhaus 1
MT465464

Hollerhecke

Hollerhecke

MU1/0K25

Virchowstr. Schuch

ELC

Horchheim 3

Luessen 4

Siwonit

Mueller

Zwischenpumpwerk

Procter&Gamble

Horchheim 4

Herrnsheim 21

Kuebel Gallborn Fischer

MU1/0K03

Roehm 5

K3269

Rheingewannweg
MU1/0K49

Roehm 7

Luessen 3

Herrnsheim 24

Hornbach

Kaufland

ARAL

Worms-Nord

Hafenstr. 2
G

Roehm 3G

MU1/0K02 MU1/0K50

Trafoknoten HOLZTR12
MU1/0K01

UAHH_R2 HOLZHF B1

UAHH_R1

Substation B

HOLZHF B2

HOLZHF B3

HOLZHF A1

HOLZHF A2

MU1/0K05

Mc-Donalds

US-Lager

Hauptlager Luessen 1

Schaeferstr.

Luessen 2

Pfortenring

Birkenweg

Walter

US-Kaserne

Hafenstr. 1

Duerer Str.

Nicolaus-Reuss-Str.

Triebwagenladung

Luetzowstr.

Raiffeisen

Heidenhainstr.

Fahrzeug Schaefer

Erich-Ollenhauer-Str. 2

Theodor-Heuss-Str.

Post 2

Deuka

Wehrzollhaus-Rosengarten1

Wehrzollhaus-Rosengarten Erich-Ollenhauer-Str. 1 Neuhausen Krankenhaus Trumpler

DRK

Eckenbertstr.

Eulenburgstr.

Horn

GEN_ROS

Heppenheimer Str.

ROSENG S1

Kurfuerstenstr.

Pfalzneuburgstr.

Mainzerstr. 2

Lokschuppen

ROSENG S2 Pfrimmanlage
MU021K01

Weinsheimer Str. 2

Mersch

Engelmannstr.

Hermannstr.

Rhenania

Weinsheimer Str. 3

Zwinglistr.

Herrngasse

Gaustr.

Kaibel&Sieber

Massa 2

EMF

Adelheidtstr.

Rudolph-Heilgers-Str.

BIZ

Worms 188

Donnersberger Str. Fiwoplast Muehlpfad Johann-Hirt-Str. Hafen 1

Nutzkauf

Nievergoltstr.

Konventstr.

Dreihornmuehlgasse

Gueterhallenstr.

Martinsplatz

Martinsplatz

Berliner Ring

Heinrich-Heine-Str

Alzeyer Str.

Frauenstr.

Hochheim 2

Hochheim 1

Bebelstr.

Liebenauerfeld

Gymnasiumstr.

Messeplatz

CEWE-Color

Pfiffligheim 2

Monsheimerstr.

Pipinweg

Knode Str.

Bahnhof 2

Bahnhof

Rheinstr. 2

Droste-Huelshoff-Str.

Hallenbad

P.H.

Polizeikaserne

Wasserturm

Karolingerstr.

C&A

Kyffhaeusserstr.

Vangionenstr. Rheinmoeve Niedesheimer Str. Brauereistrasse Breiding REA 1 Koehlerstr. Luisenstr.

Vangionenstr.

Langenbach

Duerkheimer Str. W.-Leuschner-Str.

Renolit Kirschgartenweg Schildweg Bobenheimer Str. Rohrlache 1 Rohrlache 1 Laubscher Kaiserpassage Sparkasse 1

Weinsheimer Str. 1

Martinsgasse

Lutherplatz

Maria-Muenster-Bach

Cornelius-Heyl-Str.

Im Winkel

Sophienplatz

Mang

Sparkasse 2

Woolworth

Kieskran

Flugplatz

Rohrlache 2

Stamm

Knappenstr.

Festhaus

Ludwigsplatz

Rheinbeton

Speyerer Str.

Hochstr.

Rmerstr.

Rmerstr.

Schoepfwerk

Landgraben

Aulweg

Esbella

REA 2

Kiefel

Gutenbergstr.

Verwaltung

Kaufhof

Rheinstr. 1

Rhenania 2

Delta 1

Zoo

Kani

Rosengasse

Cornelianum

Buergerturm DELTA1.B

Altbach

Katterloch

Bundeswehr

Andreasring

Andreasstr.

Neu

Sophienstift

Delta 2

Forestone

Hochstift

Valckenberg

Volksbank

Philosophenstr.

Gartenstr. Stadtwerke Speyerer Str.2 Nibelungen-Center Pankratiusgasse Koehlstr. Massa

MU1/0K07

MU1/0K06

Werk II_1B

Werk II_1A

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Reliability Indices of a Urban 20 kV Network

Unavailability Qi in min/yr
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Benchmark Urban Area Average

Distribution stations

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Improvement of Substation B

Substation B
110 kV

Substation A
20 kV

City

Industry

Existing Substation B

Substation B
110 kV

T4

Substation A

Variant Switchgear

20 kV City Industry Industry

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Improvement of Substation B Reinforcement of Subtransmission Network

Substation B
110 kV

T4

Substation A

Variant Overhead Line

20 kV

City

Industry

Industry

Substation B
110 kV

T4

Substation A

Variant Underground Cable

20 kV

City

Industry

Industry
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Comparison of Reliability Indices and Investment Costs

120%

Frequency
100%

Unavailability

Energy not served in time

Costs

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% As Is Switchgear Overhead line Underground cable

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Significance of Probabilistic Reliability Analysis

Additional tool for planning and operation Support and addition to (n-1) criterion Important tool in deregulated networks

Comparison of equal (n-1) variants (e. g. switchgear concept) Support for network restructuring Quality level for customer Basis for risk assessment Maintenance management

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