Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean

An overview

Structure
LAC Physical Environment and Resources LAC Socioeconomic Environment Anthropogenic Environmental Change Current and Projected Regional Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Physical Environment
Great climatic variation (latitude and altitude) plus ENSO Vegetation/biodiversity associated with climatic zones Wealth of natural resources Fragile Environments

Socioeconomic Environment

Colonial heritage persists

Cultural Diversity
Population distributed unevenly: mega cities and sparsely populated rural areas.

Historical Anthropogenic Environmental Change

Indigenous natural resource use Colonial occupation and impacts Modernisation and industrialisation

LAC cities with > one million inhabitants

CO2 Emissions from the Region

Country USA Cayman Islands Venezuela Mexico Argentina St Lucia Brazil Bolivia Emissions of CO2/capita in tons/annum (2000) 5.5 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4

El Salvador
Honduras and Nicaragua Paraguay

0.3
0.2 0.15

Ethiopia

0.01

Current Global Scenario

Five warmest years on record: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Hydrometeorological disasters have increased by more than 100% in last 10 years 1990s v. 1960s: 400% more major natural catastrophes, with costs to world economies increasing more than 800% 90% of natural disaster fatalities in 1990s due to hydrometeorological events.
(Roberts and Parks, 2007: 9).

Regional Climate Change (GEF, 2004)

Increasing minimum temperatures for the region as a whole Annual precipitation increasing in subtropical South America east of the Andes Increased frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding events. Decreased precipitation West of the Andes Melting of glaciers and high altitude snow and ice cover Bleaching episodes in the Mesoamerican Reef System

Simms and Reid (2006)

El Nio is a crucial factor Increasing intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes: Southern Mexico, Central America, The Caribbean Sea-level rise: Caribbean, Central America, Venezuela and Uruguay

Current GEF-funded studies of climate risks in LAC

Rio de la Plata (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina): flooding events and changes in fisheries productivity Pampas: changes in mixed farming productivity due to CC and related changes in crop pest and diseases Mexico and Argentina: climate related risks to small-holder farmers Caribbean: increasing incidence of dengue fever.

IPCC (2007) Projected Impacts of CC in LA and the Caribbean

Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in Eastern Amazonia In NE SA, semi-arid vegetation replaced by arid-land vegetation Significant biodiversity loss through habitat destruction and species extinction in tropical LA and the Caribbean Tropical areas: productivity of crop and livestock to decrease with ve impact on food security Increase in soybean productivity in temperate zones, but overall increase in number at risk of hunger Changes in ppt. and decrease in glacial cover reducing water for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.

Highly Vulnerable LA and Caribbean Countries Roberts and Parks (2007)

World vulnerability rank controlled for population size: Honduras, Nicaragua, St Lucia, Haiti, Belize and Antigua & Barbados.
Without controlling for population size: Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina

LA and Caribbean Vulnerability to Climate Change

Vulnerability: social, economic, environmental & institutional

Countries with colonial legacies of resource extraction suffer from declining terms of trade, commodity price volatility, low levels of internal integration, degraded natural environments, weak civil societies, feeble domestic institutions, high domestic inequality and large informal sectors. (Roberts and Parks, 2007: 86-7)

Adaptation to Climate Change in LA and Caribbean (GEF, 2004)

Adaptation is needed now! Adaptation to climate change should be integrated with development policy Further knowledge of climate change vulnerability and adaptation is needed Important scientific and technical capacities exist in LA and the Caribbean Building adaptation capacity requires the mobilisation and sustaining of partnerships among policy, practitioner, stakeholder and science communities.

GEF Projects related to CC mitigation and adaptation in LA: 1991-2006

Removing barriers to energy conservation and efficiency: 12 Promoting adoption of renewable energy by removing barriers and reducing costs: 23 Reducing Long-term costs of low greenhouse gas-emitting energy technologies: 06 Promoting environmentally sustainable transport: 06 Climate Change Enabling Activities: 38 Climate Change short-term measures: 04 Adaptation Plans: 03 (one regional, one global)

Examples of Adaptation
Regional democratisation Cuba disaster preparedness Community Forest Management in Mexico Rapidly developing biofuels industry in Brazil Curitiba, Brazil

Key Issues
LAC climates are changing Colonial legacy Globally significant energy sector Globally significant biodiversity resources Fragile environments, decreasing yields Water availability decline - conflicts Diverse cultures of NR management High levels of inequality Poverty - lack of environmental justice Inc. transmission of vector-borne diseases Significant regional trading blocs Resource extractive economies Spreading populist sentiments/regimes

References
Bray, Merino and Barry (2005) The Community Forests of Mexico. University of Texas Press: Austin TX. Deere and Esty (eds) (2002) Greening the Americas. MIT: Cambridge MA. GEF (2004) Its raining, its pouring Its time to be adapting Report of the 2nd AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America and the Caribbean. Buenos Aires 24-27 August, 2004. http://www.aiacproject.org/meetings/Buenos_Aires_04/Buenos_Aire s.pdf IPCC Summary of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. (17 November, 2007). IPCC (1997) The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Roberts and Parks (2007) A Climate of Injustice. MIT: Cambridge MA. Simms and Reid (2006) Up in Smoke? Latin America and the Caribbean IIED/nef: London Utting (Ed) (2002) The Greening of Business in Developing Countries. Zed: London.