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Agenda
Company Overview Industry Deepwater Horizon Litigation Valuation Risk
Thesis
Risk averse market is overpricing risk associated with Deepwater Horizon litigation RIG will continue to generate significant and sustainable cash flows Cash flows are being returned to shareholders with an attractive dividend Attractive company at an attractive price with downside protection
Company Overview
Midstream
Downstream
Company Overview
Largest global offshore drilling contractor Leases out oil drill units for use in offshore drilling for oil and gas Clients are major oil and gas companies Based in Switzerland
1996: Acquired Transocean ASA, renamed 2000: Acquired R&B Falcon, including assets to Deepwater Horizon
Industry Terms
Dayrate: amount charged to oil and gas company to rent out the rig per day Utilization rates: the percentage of days when a contractors fleet is in use during a certain period of time Contracts:
Obtained through bidding process with competitors Charged on dayrate basis with higher rates for days rig is in operation Often leasee has option to pay termination fee or extend contract Mobilization fees
Midwater
Jackups
Water depth: under 400 ft. 54 rigs Dayrate: $105,000 12% of revenues
* Dayrate - amount charged to oil and gas company to rent out the rig per day
Global Presence
5 13
2 14
3
17 11 10 29
28
3
Well diversified
Low exposure to EU Foothold in growth markets Brazil, India, Asia, W. Africa
India 9%
U.K. 12%
Revenue Efficiency
100.0% 98.0% 96.0% 94.0% 92.0% 90.0% 88.0%
Ultra Deepwater Total Fleet
Q2 2010: Deepwater Oil Spill
86.0%
84.0% 82.0% 80.0% 78.0%
Beginning Backlog
Revenue Ending Backlog Added Backlog
33,975
2,823 32,694
32,694
2,602 28,963
28,963
2,505 27,563
27,563
2,309 25,921
25,921
2,144 24,554
24,554
2,334 23,629
1,542
-1,129
1,105
667
777
1,409
Industry Overview
Competition
RIG is largest offshore drilling contractor Size and expertise allows company to charge higher rates than competitors
Company Transocean Diamond Offshore Noble Corporation ENSCO # of Rigs 138 41 Revenue ($B) 9.1 3.3 Average Dayrate $283,000 $260,000 Average Utilization Rate 70% 67%
61
72
2.8
2.0
$156,000
$133,000
79%
69%
Ultra-Deepwater Floaters
Deepwater Floaters Midwater Floaters Jackups
60
40 20 0 RIG ESV NE DO SDRL
Deepwater UDW
Jackup Market
Global Jackups
48 18 33 Contracted Stacked Idle Other 23 1
RIG Jackups
Contracted Stacked 36 Idle Other
255
Supply increased leading to slight overcapacity Although RIG has experienced large number of stacked rigs, jackups are not a large part of strategy going forward Market expected to improve as demand increases
Midwater Market
Global Midwater
1 14 10 Contracted Stacked Idle 62 Other 7
RIG Midwater
Contracted Stacked Idle Other
21
No wave of newbuilds Short-term contract durations increase volatility of rates Key markets: North Sea, India, S.E. Asia
Deepwater Market
Global Deepwater
10 Contracted 4 Stacked Idle 39 Other 5
RIG Deepwater
Contracted Stacked Idle 13 Other
Significant opportunities in deepwater market: India, S.E. Asia, Nigeria Dayrates have remained stable
UDW Market
Global UDW
1 12 Contracted Stacked Idle Other 85 27
RIG UDW
Contracted Stacked Idle Other
Market almost sold out in 2011 High demand has increased dayrates Key market for RIG with 41% of revenues Market share and pricing power
Drilling Process
To understand background of the spill, essential to understand drilling process
1. Operator drills exploratory wells to determine reservoir volume 2. Drilling rig moves to well 3. Rig lowers drill pipe with drill bit attached at end; bores hole into sea floor (wellbore) 4. Rig installs large pipe, casing, into wellbore to establish barrier between wellbore and surrounding formation 5. Continually adds smaller casing bonded into place by cement protects sides of wellbore from 1. pressure exerted from the drilling mud, 2. collapse of hole, 3. influx of fluids from surrounding formation
Deepwater Horizon
Deepwater Horizon: semi-submersible rig owned by RIG and operated by BP in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Owners of the field: BP (65%, primarily responsible for well operation), Anadarko (25%), Mitsui (10%) Parties involved:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RIG drilling contractor HAL cement contractor MI-SWACO drilling fluids contractor WFT float collar manufacturer CAM blowout preventer manufacturer
Role of Parties
Transocean: conducting safe operations, protecting personnel
Thesis
Risk averse market is overpricing risk associated with Deepwater Horizon litigation RIG will continue to generate significant and sustainable cash flows Cash flows are being returned to shareholders with an attractive dividend Attractive company at an attractive price with downside protection
DOJ Litigation
December 15, 2010: Department of Justice filed a civil lawsuit against RIG and other unaffiliated defendants Complaint alleges violations under Oil Pollution Act (OPA) and Clean Water Act Asserts that defendants are liable for all removal costs and damages resulting from incident
Defense
OPA imposes strict liability on responsible parties of vessels or facilities from which oil is discharged into or upon navigable waters or adjoining shore lines Responsible party = source of discharge Owner of rig only responsible for oil on or above surface of water (Contract Article 24.1) Source of discharge in Deepwater Horizon case underwater = cannot be liable under OPA BP accepted responsible party status
BP Litigation
April 20, 2011: BP filed $40b lawsuit against RIG, HAL, Anadarko, Mitsui Claimed safety systems/devices and well control procedures failed
Defense
Indemnity clause: any liability caused under BP cannot be used against RIG If BP were to reject indemnity responsibility, would change entire drilling industry model
Source: Transocean
BOEMRE Report
September 14, 2011: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE) released report regarding cause Panel found central cause of blowout was failure of cement barrier BPs actions prior to event increased blowout risk BP knew of safety problems and could have addressed them Lowers RIGs risk of liability in court
BOEMRE Report
In the days leading up to April 20, BP made a series of decisions that complicated cementing operations, added incremental risk, and may have contributed to the ultimate failure of the cement job.
Responsibility of RIG
Bottom Line
High probability of successful outcome in litigation BOEMRE report to alter position of BP Expenses to be non-material to overall bottom line Civil trial to start on February 27, 2012, successful resolution to unlock value
Thesis
Risk averse market is overpricing risk associated with Deepwater Horizon litigation RIG will continue to generate significant and sustainable cash flows Cash flows are being returned to shareholders with an attractive dividend Attractive company at an attractive price with downside protection
90.0%
88.0% 86.0% 84.0% 82.0%
Total Fleet
80.0%
78.0%
Q309 Beginning Backlog Revenue Ending Backlog Added Backlog 33,975 2,823
32,694
1,542
28,963
-1,129
27,563
1,105
25,921
667
24,554
777
23,629
1,409
80
70
60
50
40
CENTRAL BANKS STEP UP BATTLE TO CONTAIN CRISIS WSJ 10/7/11 DATA CANT MASK A DOUR LABOR SITUATION WSJ 10/7/11
DCF Valuation
Revenue Growth 2011 8.6% -0.5% -9.2% 2012 2.1% 4.7% 5.4% 2013 -2.1% -2.3% -2.3% Price Target Budgeted Settlement Indemnity Broken 2014 0.5% -0.8% -0.8% Bear Case $44.89 $44.32 $42.62 2015 0.2% -0.6% -1.8% Base Case $77.55 $76.98 $75.28 Term. 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% Bull Case $115.57 $115.01 $113.30
Bull Case
Base Case Bear Case Macondo Scenario Budgeted Settlement Indemnity Broken
Macondo penalties would have to equal $10.8b in order for the current stock price to be justified (base case)
Comps Valuation
Company EV/2011 EBITDA 6.34 5.18 9.03 10.70 9.74 8.89 EV/2012 EBITDA 4.93 5.83 5.63 6.22 5.64 5.89 EV/2013 EBITDA 4.75 5.39 5.19 5.86 5.29 5.49 EV/2011 Revenue 2.35 2.52 4.06 4.81 3.93 3.99
Transocean Diamond
Noble Ensco Plc. Rowan Companies Average (EV weighted) Implied Price (Weighted Average EV/EBITDA and Other Metrics)
Potential Risks
Chance of litigation liability Government regulations
Projections show minimal effect on value
Regulations can actually help RIG Not a factor that we can control
Natural disaster
Thank You
Why RIG?
Strong cash flows being returned to investors through 6.67% dividend Stable outlook with leading market position and large contract backlog Market is overpricing Macondo litigation risk
Appendix
Rating Overweight
Hold Outperform Buy Buy Hold Neutral Buy Neutral
Year
Rig Name
Type
Damage / details
Semi-submersible Blowout damage -- off of Darwin, Australia Semi-submersible Blowout off Trinidad, 3 killed.
PEMEX PEMEX
Semi-submersible Blowout and fire in Bay of Campeche Ixtoc I well. Semi-submersible Blowout and fire of Nigeria.
Smedvig
Statoil
Semi-submersible Gas blowout at BOP and fire in the UK North Sea, 1 killed.
1993 Actinia
2010 Deepwater Horizon
Transocean
Transocean
BP/Statoil
BP