It is not unlike disaster recovery and risk management

Disasters, conflict and crisis management

CEPAL/ECLAC

Distance Learning Programme

Disasters, conflict and crisis management

How to approach the different interventions required: conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the interventions Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptual quagmire Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal analysis Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating emergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource allocation vs. policy change promotion
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Vicious circle: Insecurity, conflict and mistrust

Human actions progressively deteriorate the socio-economic fabric Conflict persistence affects stability (positively / negatively) Impact of instability and insecurity deteriorates governance and potential for recovery
CEPAL/ECLAC
INSECURITY

HUMAN ACTIONS

CONFLICT

Distance Learning Programme

BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENT

The World Banks Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV

SECURITY

(Reduced Vulnerability)

SOCIAL STABILITY

*
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
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GOOD GOVERNANCE

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SEQUENCE OF EFFECTS
PHENOMENON: Characteristics (physical description, typology and context: war and insecurity, lack of governance, marginalisation and LINKAGES poverty) Menace Vulnerability EFFECTS: Direct (physical on economic, social and natural capital) Indirect (on Flows) Risk

Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector) Reduce vulnerability by building trust and consensus Synergies for reconstruction: appropriation of risk by affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector, country)
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Actions (programmes, projects) with the objective of anticipating and counteract the negative consequence an event may have PREVENTION (avoidance of conflict) the before It implies namely operational and actions organisation actions to build communication, trust and mutual respect, training of potentially affected groups and population to promote consensus building through mutual trust.
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION (2)

Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of counteracting (reducing the negative impact) of an occurrence. MITIGATION Includes allocation of resources to encompasses reinforce structures, redesign or alter actions before, existing elements to reduce vulnerability in addition to training during and and organisation (including at the after community level) Ownership of actions is fundamental to build trust
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SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION (3)

VULNERABILITY calculation made on the basis or exposure to the recurrence of conflict
Risk factors or exposure to danger of existing institutional framework such as:
Marginalisation, Informality, Pauperization,

Conditions of human settlements and localisation of productive activities (primary, industrial, tertiary or services) and their linkage among them and with the environment.
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CEPAL/ECLAC

Distance Learning Programme

SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION (4)

CONFLICT REDUCTION encompasses actions before, during and after Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of reducing vulnerability and exposure to risk Implies trust in functioning institutional arrangements and community involvement Difficulty in setting limits of outside intervention vs. local sovereignty or ownership
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CEPAL/ECLAC

SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION (5)

RISK MANAGEMENT (actions to be carried out before with consequences during and after) Pro-active strategy (in contrast to reactive response) to reduce vulnerability and counteract risk factors Its objective is conflict reduction Is not a sector action but a global set of actions encompassing all sectors, beginning with sound environmental management Is not a conservation policy per-se but requires sustainability criteria both in terms of natural resources and human intervention.
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CEPAL/ECLAC

Distance Learning Programme

SOME DEFINITIONS IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION (6)

The response strategy (re-active CONFLICT strategy) to, after the occurrence of a MANAGEMENT disaster, intends to counteract its more immediate negative impact and actions to be prevent more severe effects in the carried during short term. and the immediate Includes emergency actions (search and rescue, immediate assistance, (short-term) shelter, sanitary and health campaigns, after rehabilitation of lifelines, assessment of emergency needs and first appraisal of reconstruction requirements).
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Proposed courses of action

Restore economic and social fabric Restore and strenghten productive linkages (upstream/downstream) Reduce internal / external vulnerability
Sectoral components:

Monitoring, analysis and conflict forecasting Contingency plans in key sectors, for example: Agriculture, cattle raising, External policies: rural poverty, Introduce risk energy and baselines management as part Water and health Internal policies: of the regional Interconnected systems Include vulnerability reduction as an international agenda, alongside: objective of development plans Regulation of basic services with alongside goals of: sponsorship of private enterprise External competitive insertion Competitive growth Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability Benefitting from the Equitable development and nutrition globalization process Sustainable and sustained Education to reduce vulnerability Inclusive regional development insertion CEPAL/ECLAC Distance Learning Programme Diagnosis and monitoring of12 Social participation vulnerability at the local level

Comparison of post-disaster and post conflict analysis / interventions

Diagnosis origins /causes extent duration POST DISASTERS Typology (an artificial distinction): - natural o hydrometeoroligical (climatic variability: cyclical, recurrent o climatic (change: global change, greenhouse, etc.) o geological-seismic, volcanic), geodynamics POST CONFLICT (CRISIS) Typology (an arbitrary distinction): economic social political

relative importance (to size, level, cycle (seasonal, economic, other) of the community / region / country affected

(normally associated with wars, social / political upheaval)

- anthropic (chemical, industrial, etc.) sudden (one-time event May ensue or be aggravated by natural events occurrence for a limited time-period) - slow (creeping, building such as drought and other slow-evolving climate variability), both limited or cyclical (ENSO) OR open-ended persistence (deforestationdrought, flooding and water level changes (as in the oceans) There is an interaction of disasters and conflict and lead to dynamic evolution which is neither predictable nor linear (the phenomenon of hysteresis): a disaster may lead to crisis and conflict (of governability) and vulnerability (exposure to disasters) is a development issue Conflict may lead to a disaster (by disabling response mechanisms, increasing vulnerability and exposure)

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Comparison of post-disaster and post conflict analysis / interventions (2)

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS) Valuation : by sector, in terms of direct Not much different or unlike disaster situation. (assets/capital losses) and indirect (flows affected) and overall impact (on economic-social-dynamics) economic Requirements: Difference will be in the conflict or crisis events in the lack of preexisting institutional framework and governance conditions, although disasters may lead to loss or deterioration of these social comparability (accepted Requirements: distinction between recognized standards, homogeneity) infrastructure reliability / credibility emergency actions (to stop conflict, take crisis to an end) and institutional - distinction between book institutional building (peacevalue, replacement and reconstruction nation building) costs Account for cross-cutting issues such as In disaster institutional and governance conditions differentiated gender impact, environmental impact are (unless in very extreme severe cases) not and overall effects destroyed. Type of effects and valuation

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Comparison of post-disaster and post conflict analysis / interventions (3)

Type of intervention

POST DISASTERS Response to reconstruction needs, which should be owned by the victims and lead to mitigation, prevention and disaster reduction (in the continuum or cycle of prevention- reduced destruction-less costly reconstruction-proactive mitigation) both in terms Move from reactive to proactive interventions, leading to the local ownership of disasters mitigation and reduction.

POST CONFLICT (CRISIS) Respond to restoring non-conflict situation which allows for building social, human and economic capital: establishing a normal functioning society that sets goals, priorities and development paradigm in accordance with societal needs, culture and prior Move from direct intervention to enabling and empowering local population to manage its own development process through consensus-building institutional and political commonly agreed.

As in post-conflict the development paradigm is at stake and may be subject to change. Foreign intervention is seen as supplementary to Foreign intervention is seen as crucial first phase national / local / community / socially agreed in generating post conflict minimal consensus and strategy for reconstruction-mitigation functioning institutions and policy formulation processes.

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