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Session Goal
This training session introduces several meteorological concepts which will help you to understand weather charts, forecasts and fire weather
A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain: how weather originates in terms of global circulation airmass and frontal characteristics, and how these may impact fire behaviour
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Outline
1. What is weather? 2. Fundamentals of meteorology
3. Global circulation
4. Weather associated with high or low pressure 5. Airmass characteristics
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Scenario
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The Stratosphere
Stable, dry layer above the level of surface convective currents Temperature no longer falls with height Contains the ozone layer
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Global Circulation
Global circulation describes atmospheric motion over the earth but what causes this?
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Warm
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Cold
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A Dynamic Earth
Daily and annual variations in solar heating
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Coriolis Force
Coriolis force is an apparent deflection of the air from its path as dictated by the pressure gradient force when viewed by an observer on the earths surface
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A Real Atmosphere
Real global circulation is due to:
Variations in solar heating Variations in the earths surface features and atmosphere Coriolis force
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Cloud:
Low likelihood of cloud and precipitation Low cloud may become trapped under a subsidence inversion
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Cloud:
High chance of mid-level and convective cloud High chance of precipitation
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Airmasses
Airmasses are classified according to their source origin. Consider the air upstream:
Is it continental, maritime, polar or tropical? Is it dry or moist, warm or cool? In some instances air from the Southern Ocean can be very dry
Consider how rapidly or slowly the airmass is moving Consider whether the air will be modified:
How will diurnal changes influence the air? Will the air be moving from water to land?
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Tropical Maritime
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Polar Maritime
Southern Maritime
Trough:
An elongated area of relatively lower pressure associated with cyclonic flow Commonly extend from a low pressure system Typically bring cool, unsettled weather and precipitation
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Fronts
The boundary between airmasses of different densities is referred to as a front Four types of front are evident:
Cold Warm Occluded Stationary
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Cold Front
A cold front is the boundary between a cold airmass moving towards a region of warmer air A backward sloping face forms as the cool, dense air slides underneath the warmer, lighter air ahead Warm air retains more moisture than cold air so as it is rapidly forced upwards, any moisture condenses out to form cloud and precipitation Strong and gusty winds, cloud, rainfall, thunderstorms and falling temperatures are typically experienced during the passage of a cold front
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Wind Changes
A wind change refers to a distinct shift of wind direction, greater than 30, where wind speeds before or after the change are 10 km/h or more
In Victoria, the passage of a cold front is often referred to as a wind change or just a change because these conditions are generally met
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Summary
The sun is the driving force behind the worlds weather Changes in air density create regions of high and low pressure Air will tend to move from high to low pressure Air flows anticlockwise around highs (anticyclones) and clockwise around lows (cyclones)
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Airmass characteristics can be determined from examination of the weather map. Fronts are the boundaries between airmasses of different densities Fire behaviour can alter dramatically during a wind change event
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Session Goal
This training session will introduce and describe weather charts and their application A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover five learning outcomes After completing this session you should understand:
the basic features depicted in a weather chart how to interpret a weather chart typical summer and winter weather patterns in Australia how to identify a day of severe fire danger from the synoptic map the three-dimensional nature of the atmosphere
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Outline
1. Typical features of a weather chart 2. Interpreting a weather chart
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Isobars
Isobars indicate areas of constant atmospheric pressure in the same way that contours indicate areas of constant altitude on a land map
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Warm fronts are indicated by a solid semicircle (red on a coloured map) in the direction of the movement
Occluded fronts are indicated by alternating solid semicircles and triangles (purple on a coloured map) in the direction of movement Stationary fronts are indicated by a solid line alternated with triangles (blue on a coloured map) towards the warmer air and semicircles (red on a coloured map) towards the colder air
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A Three-Dimensional Atmosphere
Most weather maps display sea level pressure when in reality the atmosphere is threedimensional Upper level charts are available that show meteorological information above ground level
300 hPa map
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Atmospheric Thickness
Thickness refers to the height of the layer between 1000 hPa (~sea level) and 500 hPa in metres or decametres
If the column of air is heated, it expands and the height increases If the column of air is cooled, it contracts and the height decreases
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Thickness is therefore a measure of how warm or cold the atmosphere is between 1000 hPa and 500 hPa this can be related to ground level conditions
The warmer the 1000 hPa to 500 hPa layer, the higher the temperature is likely to be at ground level
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Summary
Features of a weather map include areas of high and low pressure, ridges, troughs, and fronts Synoptic charts give an indication of the weather through applying the concepts of global circulation and airmass characteristics Typical seasonal weather patterns exist in Australia
An day of severe fire weather can often be predicted from a synoptic map
Atmospheric thickness gives an indication of the expected temperature at the earths surface
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Session Goal
This session will introduce the use of satellite and radar imagery in meteorology and discuss its interpretation A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission Satellite images are credited where appropriate
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should understand:
the different types of satellite and radar images what meteorological features are present on a satellite or radar image
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Outline
1. Introduction to remote sensing 2. Satellite imagery:
Infrared Visible Water vapour
4. Radar imagery
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Satellite Imagery
Passive satellite imagery is available in three forms:
Infrared Visible Water vapour
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Victorian Alpine Fires 2003 smoke plume image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a polar orbiting satellite operated by the US NOAA
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Visible dust storm over eastern Australia on 23rd October 2002 image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from a polar orbiting satellite operated by the Chinese Meteorological Administration
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Radar Imagery
Radar works by a transmitter emitting a pulse of radio waves into the atmosphere, part of which is scattered back by rain droplets and other debris
The location and intensity of precipitation is determined by the time taken for the scattered pulses to return to the receiver and the power with which they return: quicker and more intensely returned pulses indicate heavier precipitation
A horizontal map is produced of where rain is falling and an indication of how heavily it is falling
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Radar Interpretation
Radar interpretation can be difficult:
The radar beam widens and increases in altitude with increasing distance from the source, and therefore echo intensity is reduced and it can miss rainfall at increasing distances from the radar installation. Rainfall detected at a high level may evaporate before hitting the ground Radar reflectivity is strongly dependent on the diameter of raindrops rather than the amount of raindrops A shadow effect can occur e.g. a thunderstorm cell close to the installation can shield the area of atmosphere in its wake A lack of large droplets may result in the underestimation of drizzle intensity It is possible for the radar to pick up insect swarms or smoke plumes from major fires
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Summary
Remotely sensed imagery fills the gaps between fixed Automatic Weather Stations and is holistic Infrared, visible and water vapour satellite imagery is available in single image or continuous loop format Radar images are useful in identifying precipitation in terms of location and intensity, however a number of limitations can reduce the accuracy Remotely sensed imagery assists in the identification of features such as cold fronts, dry air, rainbands, showers and thunderstorms
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Session Goal
This session will introduce several local weather effects that need to be considered in conjunction with the synoptic weather situation when analysing fire behaviour A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken or adapted from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes
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Outline
1. Sea/land influenced winds 2. Mountain and valley winds 3. Thunderstorm outflow 4. Fire induced effects 5. Synoptic weather influences
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Sea Breeze
During the day the land warms more quickly than the water Air above the land warms, expands and rises causing surface low pressure Cooler and more moist air in the high pressure region over the water flows onshore
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Land Breeze
At night the land cools more quickly than the water Air above the land cools, and the dense air sinks creating a surface high pressure region Air flows from the land to the low pressure region over the water
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Wind flow is very sensitive to topography and local weather effects in upland terrain can have a significant impact on fire behaviour
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Eddy Formation
If the terrain or obstacle is rough, airflow downwind near ground level can become more turbulent and a wake may be created where airflow is lighter but gustier in nature An eddy can form in the lee side of the hill, with flows opposite to the general wind direction
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Wind Channelling
Wind can become directionally channelled by ridges and valleys under both light and strong wind conditions Wind speed increases due to funnelling
Plan view
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Top Acceleration
If the flow remains laminar, and there is a stable layer of air above the obstacle, wind speed increases as the top of the obstacle is approached this is top acceleration
Side view
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Mountain Waves
If airflow becomes turbulent, eddies and mountain waves can form
Mountain waves typically occur when the wind forced over a mountain increases in speed with height in a mildly unstable atmosphere
In such cases, the air is forced up and the disturbance on the lee side forms a series of wavelike troughs and peaks that are sometimes recognisable by lenticular clouds Rotors also occur due to mountain waves and are a closed parcel of air rotating along an axis parallel to the mountain range but somewhat downwind
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In complex terrain, a decoupling between the air within and above the valley rim can occur two separate flow systems can become evident
Side view
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Under these conditions erratic and unpredictable fire behaviour is likely, especially for up-slope winds where preheating effects to fuel upstream can increase fire intensity and rate of spread
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Foehn Wind
As a moist air parcel moves up-slope it cools and contracts Water vapour will condense and is released. This process adds heat to the environment latent heat of condensation Air that descends is warmer and drier a Foehn wind Typically requires moist winds that increase in speed with height
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Side view
Katabatic Wind
The earth cools at night as it emits longwave radiation
The layer of air directly above the ground also cools and is then cooler than a layer of air at higher altitudes or a layer at the same altitude but away from the slope
This cooler and denser slab of air moves down-slope under the influence of gravity forming a katabatic wind or drainage flow Katabatic winds are strongest when the sky is clear, in steep terrain where vegetation is sparse, and when synoptic winds are light
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Anabatic Winds
During the day incoming solar radiation warms the earths surface The layer of air directly above this warms more than a layer of air at higher altitudes or a layer at a similar altitude but further from the slope The warmer and less dense air rises and creates a void that tends to draw in air from lower down the slope Anabatic winds are strongest when the sky is clear, in steep terrain where vegetation is sparse, in areas that receive greater amounts of sunlight and when synoptic winds are light Anabatic winds are typically stronger than Katabatic flows
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Increased daytime cloud density will reduce the intensity of incoming solar radiation, and will impede the development of local weather effects driven by heating such as the sea breeze or anabatic wind Increased nocturnal cloud levels will reduce the potential for katabatic and land breeze effects to occur as the earths surface will cool at a lower rate
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Thunderstorm Outflow
If moist air rises to great heights in an unstable atmosphere due to convection, it will condense. If it continues to rise, towering cumulonimbus clouds will form creating a thunderstorm cell Accompanying the column formation is strong up and down drafts Cool dense air that sinks out of a thunderstorm (a down draft) diverges rapidly when it hits the ground thunderstorm outflow
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Exercise I
Consider what local effects may take place here:
Morwell Yarram McAllister River Valley Mt Baw Baw
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Exercise II
Topographic maps can be used to identify possible local effects What local effects might take place around the Grampians?
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Summary
A number of different local weather effects exist that encourage unpredictable fire behaviour
Fires can influence the local environment by generating their own weather
Understanding the relationship between synoptic conditions and local weather effects is essential to successful fire management
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Session Goal
This session will discuss how to interpret the fire danger rating system used in Bureau of Meteorology fire weather forecasts
A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover two learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain:
the inputs into the Fire Danger Index (FDI) the FDI / Fire Danger Rating (FDR) system and how it is used
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Outline
1. What is fire danger? 2. Forest Fire Danger Index
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Fire danger is quantified using a numerical FDI to which a descriptive FDR is attached, where higher values represent a higher level of danger
FDI values are typically calculated in two situations:
As part of routine fire weather forecasting To predict the behaviour of a going wildfire
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Drought Factor
DF estimates the proportion (in tenths) of the fine fuels (<6mm diameter) in a forest that will burn in a fire where:
DF = 0 implies that all fuels are wet (i.e. fires will not burn) DF = 5 implies that half the fine fuel will burn DF = 10 represents a situation where all fuels are dry and ready to burn
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The value for FFDI is capped at 100, however higher values are possible on rare occasions
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FFDI Assumptions
Terrain aspect or slope is not taken into account An available fuel amount of 12.5 tonnes per hectare is assumed (indicated on the back of the meter) and fuel loads can be heavier than this The FFDI model assumes moderate instability. Fire behaviour in elevated fuels may be underestimated, and extreme days will often be more unstable than the model assumes The FFDI model assumes a uniform canopy interception of sunlight The FFDI model assumes full sunlight
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Curing
Most grasses have a natural life cycle in which plants mature annually, and die or become dormant The moisture content of the grass is lost seasonally in the drying or curing process Values for curing are expressed as the percentage of dry (dead) grass 0% cured (completely green) to 100% cured (completely dead)
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GFDI System
The descriptive grassland fire danger system is as follows:
FDR Low Moderate High Very high Extreme GFDI 02 37 8 19 20 49 50 +
GFDI values can reach over 100 on rare occasions, particularly if wind speed and curing is high Fires with an GFDI above 50 typically become weather dominated
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GFDI Assumptions
Aspect or slope is not taken into account Atmospheric instability is not taken into account
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If the synoptic chart implies a day of severe or extreme fire danger, then this will often be confirmed upon examination of the FDI values
Forecast values of extreme FDI are the strongest reason for a Total Fire Ban declaration
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Summary
Fire danger is a measure of the difficulty in controlling or suppressing a fire There are two fire danger indices used in Victoria:
FFDI and GFDI
Fire danger is used as a basis for fire agency preparedness, fire behaviour prediction, and public safety awareness FDI / FDR varies hourly and daily An extreme FDI day can occur under a number of synoptic conditions
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Fire Weather 1
Session Goal
This session will discuss how to access and interpret Bureau of Meteorology fire weather products and services A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used with their permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes. After completing this session you should understand:
how to access the Bureau of Meteorology Registered User webpage how to access numerous weather products and services available on the Bureau of Meteorology Registered User webpage the information contained in the various fire weather products issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
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Outline
1. Accessing the Bureau of Meteorology public website 2. Registered User page 3. Fire weather products 4. Other information available on the website
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Forecasts and Warnings includes products prepared for fire management agencies.
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Fire Weather Estimates are issued for 25 representative locations around Victoria in nine weather districts
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For each of the 25 locations the following fields are predicted for maximum temperature time:
Maximum temperature (C) Relative humidity (%) Wind direction Wind speed and gust (km/h) FFDI (using a calculated Drought Factor) GFDI (using an observed Curing value) Wind change time and wind strength (if appropriate)
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For each of the nine districts the following fields are predicted for maximum temperature time: Lightning Activity Level (LAL; 0 = nil, 1 = one or two, 2 = a few, 3 = numerous strikes over a district) Rain (No = less than 5mm, Yes = greater than 5mm over an entire district during the 24 hour period from 0900h on the forecast day) Height of the mixing depth above sea level (mix, metres) Upper level wind direction and strength (at 1000 to 2000 metres above mean sea level; km/h) FDI above 35 (approximate time when FDI is above 35, for * locations if occurring four hours or more before or after maximum temperature time)
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Spot Fire/Prescribed Burn Forecasts have the highest priority behind Wind Change Charts
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Thunderstorm Forecast
A Thunderstorm Forecast is issued for the state of Victoria by 1130h each day indicating areas of likely thunderstorm activity
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Summary
The Bureau public website provides access to a range of weather products and services:
Detailed products for fire management agencies can be accessed from the Registered User section A number of products are regularly issued to fire management agencies during the fire season Wind Change Charts and Spot Fire Forecasts assume the highest priority Spot Fire / Prescribed Burn Forecasts and Thunderstorm Forecasts are issued all year
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Session Goal
This training session will introduce the importance of being aware of local weather conditions as well as providing guidance on how to obtain a simple weather observation A number of diagrams used in this presentation are taken from Bureau of Meteorology publications (copyright Commonwealth of Australia) and are used by permission. For more details see Fire Weather 1 Learning Manual
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Learning Outcomes
This training session will cover three learning outcomes After completing this session you should be able to explain:
the suitable environmental conditions in which to take weather observations how to undertake and interpret basic sky observations how to undertake and interpret observations of wind speed and direction
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Outline
1. Being aware of the weather 2. Taking a weather observation cloud
A lack of awareness of the weather can have a serious and detrimental effect on fire management and suppression activities, and can jeopardise firefighter safety
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However, the observation site should reflect the type of terrain in which the fire is currently burning A fire ground weather observation should include cloud, wind and visibility
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Cloud Observations
Cloud observations should include the cloud type and amount as a minimum Cloud type:
Stratiform or Cumuliform
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Stratiform Clouds
Stratiform clouds:
Are generally flat in appearance and of low to medium height Typically display extensive horizontal rather than vertical development Can give rise to precipitation that is more continuous rather than showery Stratiform clouds can be a precursor to a coming weather change e.g. an approaching frontal passage
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Cumuliform Clouds
Cumuliform clouds:
Are generally heaped in appearance and of low to medium height; however cumulonimbus can stretch the height of the troposphere Display greater vertical rather than horizontal development indicating convective activity and an unstable atmosphere Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to occur from cumuliform clouds
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Cloud Amount
Cloud amount is estimated in eighths (or oktas) although it is perhaps simpler to record on the fire ground as:
Clear (no cloud) Partly cloudy (cloud cover of less than 50%) Mostly cloudy (50% to less than full cloud cover) Overcast (full cloud cover)
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Visibility
Visibility can be determined by comparing visual estimations with a map indicating the distance to known points
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Beaufort scale
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Wind Direction
Wind direction can be estimated using a vane Without using specialist equipment wind direction can be obtained using a compass or map and the following methods:
Analysing the direction of fire, smoke or cloud movement Analysing the directional movement of trees and other foliage
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Inversion:
A dramatic increase in wind speed can result from the breakdown of the overnight inversion
Height of observation:
Try and take the observation at a height of 10m
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Relative humidity only reaches 100% in clouds, and the presence of fog is the only clear indicator that humidity at ground level has reached 100%
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Summary
The safety of fire management personnel on the fire ground is dependent on an awareness and understanding of the local weather conditions
Fire behaviour can be predicted through understanding local meteorological conditions by taking a weather observation
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