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POWER SYSTEMS RELIABILITY

Activity 1:

Whats Your Buying Pattern? (10 minutes)

Subject : Probability and Statistics Target Audience : H.S. Level (Grade 12) General Objective: To teach the students the concept of reliability as an application of probability.

Power Systems Reliability

What is reliability?
Reliability measures the probability that a system or part of a system will work. So, if I say that the reliability of my walkman is 0.98 (or 98%), I mean that my walkman is working 98% of the time and failing 2% of the time.

Power Systems Reliability

What is a system?
A system is a collection of components, subsystem and/or assemblies arranged to a specific design in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable performance and reliability.

Power Systems Reliability

Models of a System
A) Series Structures
1 2

For this system to work, both components 1 and 2 must work. 1 2

...

Power Systems Reliability

A Personal Computer Power Supply Motherboard Processor Hard Drive

A Simple Series system

Power Systems Reliability

B) Parallel Structures
1 1 2 2
. . .

n
In a parallel system, the system will work as long as at least one component works.

Power Systems Reliability

C) Combination of Series and Parallel Structures 1 2

Power Systems Reliability

Finding A Systems Reliability


A) A Series System 1 2

...

For a pure series system, the system reliability is equal to the product of the reliabilities of its constituent components. Or:

Rs R1 R2 ... Rn

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Three components are connected in series and make up a system. Component 1 has a reliability of 0.95, component 2 has a reliability of 0.98 and component 3 has a reliability of 0.97 for a mission of 100 hours. Find the overall reliability of the system for a 100-hr mission.

Solution:
Rs = (R1)(R2)(R3)

= (0.95)(0.98)(0.97) = 0.90 = 90%

Activity 2A: Computing Series Systems


Reliability
1)
0.8 0.9

Rs = (0.8)(0.9) = 0.72

2)
0.7 0.6

Rs = (0.7)(0.6) = 0.42

Power Systems Reliability

Activity 2B: Effect of the Number of Components in a Series System


S y s t e m R e l i a b i l i t y
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number

of

Components

Power Systems Reliability

B) A Parallel System 1
2
. . .

For a pure parallel system, the overall system reliability is equal to the product of the component unreliabilities. Thus, the reliability of the parallel system is given by: Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1-R2)(1-Rn)]

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Three components are connected in parallel


and make up a system. Component 1 has a reliability of 0.95, component 2 has a reliability of 0.98 and component 3 has a reliability of 0.97 for a mission of 100 hours. Find the overall reliability of the system for a 100-hr mission.

Solution:
Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1 R2)(1 R3)] = 1 [(1 0.95)(1-0.98)(1-0.97)] = 0.99997 = 99.997 %

R1 = 0.95

R2 = 0.98

R3 = 0.97

Activity 3A:Computing Parallel Systems Reliability


1)
0.9

0.8

Rs = 1 [(1- 0.9)(1- 0.8)] = 0.98

2)

0.7

Rs = 1 [(1- 0.7)(1- 0.8)] = 0.94

0.8

Power Systems Reliability

Activity 3B: Effect of the Number of Components in a Parallel System


S y s t e m R e l i a b i l i t y
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number

of

Components

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Consider a system with three components. Units 1 and 2 are connected in series and Unit 3 is connected in parallel with the first two, as shown in the figure below. Find the reliability of the system. Solution:

C) Combination of Series and Parallel Structures

R1 = 0.99 R3 = 0.97

R2= 0.98

Power Systems Reliability

First, the reliability of the segment consisting of Units 1 and 2 is calculated: R1,2 = (R1)(R2) = (0.99)(0.98) = 0.97 The reliability of the overall system is then calculated by treating Units 1 and 2 as one with a reliability of 0.97 connected in parallel with Unit 3.

Therefore:

Power Systems Reliability

R1,2= 0.97

R3 = 0.97
Rs = 1 [(1 0.97)(1 0.97)] = 0.9991 = 99.91%

Activity 4:
1) R1=0.7

Combination of Series and Parallel Structure (10 minutes)


R2=0.6

R3=0.5 This is equivalent to: R1=0.7 R2,3=0.8

Rs = (0.7)(0.8) = 0.56

Activity 4: (contd)
2)

Combination of Series and Parallel Structure (10 minutes)


R2=0.9

R1=0.7 R3=0.5

This is equivalent to:

R1,2=0.63
R3=0.5

Rs = 1- [(1 - 0.63)(1 0.5)] = 0.815 = 81.5%

Power Systems Reliability

The Bathtub Curve


Reliability specialists often describe the lifetime of a population of products using a graphical representation called the bathtub curve. It characteristically describes the life of many products, as well as humans.
F A I L U R E

EARLY LIFE
(burn-in or break-in or infant mortality period)

USEFUL LIFE (or normal life)

WEAROUT LIFE

R A T (failure rate E decreases with time)

(failure rate approx. const)

(failure rate increases with time)

Time (hours, miles, cycles, etc)

Activity 5: Real-life Applications of the Bathtub Curve (10 minutes)

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