Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Activity 1:
Subject : Probability and Statistics Target Audience : H.S. Level (Grade 12) General Objective: To teach the students the concept of reliability as an application of probability.
What is reliability?
Reliability measures the probability that a system or part of a system will work. So, if I say that the reliability of my walkman is 0.98 (or 98%), I mean that my walkman is working 98% of the time and failing 2% of the time.
What is a system?
A system is a collection of components, subsystem and/or assemblies arranged to a specific design in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable performance and reliability.
Models of a System
A) Series Structures
1 2
...
B) Parallel Structures
1 1 2 2
. . .
n
In a parallel system, the system will work as long as at least one component works.
...
For a pure series system, the system reliability is equal to the product of the reliabilities of its constituent components. Or:
Rs R1 R2 ... Rn
Example: Three components are connected in series and make up a system. Component 1 has a reliability of 0.95, component 2 has a reliability of 0.98 and component 3 has a reliability of 0.97 for a mission of 100 hours. Find the overall reliability of the system for a 100-hr mission.
Solution:
Rs = (R1)(R2)(R3)
Rs = (0.8)(0.9) = 0.72
2)
0.7 0.6
Rs = (0.7)(0.6) = 0.42
Number
of
Components
B) A Parallel System 1
2
. . .
For a pure parallel system, the overall system reliability is equal to the product of the component unreliabilities. Thus, the reliability of the parallel system is given by: Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1-R2)(1-Rn)]
Solution:
Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1 R2)(1 R3)] = 1 [(1 0.95)(1-0.98)(1-0.97)] = 0.99997 = 99.997 %
R1 = 0.95
R2 = 0.98
R3 = 0.97
0.8
2)
0.7
0.8
Number
of
Components
Example: Consider a system with three components. Units 1 and 2 are connected in series and Unit 3 is connected in parallel with the first two, as shown in the figure below. Find the reliability of the system. Solution:
R1 = 0.99 R3 = 0.97
R2= 0.98
First, the reliability of the segment consisting of Units 1 and 2 is calculated: R1,2 = (R1)(R2) = (0.99)(0.98) = 0.97 The reliability of the overall system is then calculated by treating Units 1 and 2 as one with a reliability of 0.97 connected in parallel with Unit 3.
Therefore:
R1,2= 0.97
R3 = 0.97
Rs = 1 [(1 0.97)(1 0.97)] = 0.9991 = 99.91%
Activity 4:
1) R1=0.7
Rs = (0.7)(0.8) = 0.56
Activity 4: (contd)
2)
R1=0.7 R3=0.5
R1,2=0.63
R3=0.5
EARLY LIFE
(burn-in or break-in or infant mortality period)
WEAROUT LIFE