Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting Americas Prison

Population, 2007-2011
Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Where Weve Been

Where Weve Been Costs

Growth in State Corrections Costs
$50,000,000,000 $45,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $25,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $0
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Where Are We Going? Report Objectives

To estimate the future size and cost of state

and federal prison systems To examine the reasons for projected growth To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Projection Formula
2011 State Prison Population =
[2006 population x 0.453957294846] 2005 UCR 29384823 Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 .364SES - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003] JUST KIDDING! We called the states

What We Found National

National

National

Estimating Future Prison Costs

Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars

- $23,876 per inmate

Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

What We Found Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011

$16,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $0 Operating Costs Capital Costs $15,000,000,000 $12,500,000,000

Regions

State Highlights

State Highlights
10 Lowest-Growth Delaware New York Connecticut Maryland Louisiana Wisconsin Tennessee Missouri Massachusetts Rhode Island States 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7%

Key Drivers and Trends

Population growth, esp. in West

Growing admissions (1980-1992)

Longer length of stay (1992- ) Probation and parole violators (60% of growth) Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%) Rising age (up from 31 to 34) Methamphetamine cases Mental health cases Workforce recruitment and retention Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Tremendous State Variation

Tremendous State Variation

Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population Admissions, Length of Stay Determined Largely by Policy Choices

State Policy Choices = State Prison Population / Costs

CT Targeted Reform
Problem Identified technical violators as driver Solution Set goal of reducing TVs by 20% Hired 96 new POs Started 2 new supervision/service programs Public awareness campaign Result Highest growth to flat Crime drop parallel to national reduction

NC Broad System Reform

Problem Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms Solution Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders Abolish discretionary parole release Establish comprehensive guidelines Create state/local partnership for low risk Result One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack Crime fell in sync with national drop Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Exciting Time in Criminal Justice

Advances in science of behavior change Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment Motivational Interviewing Contingency Management Advances in supervision technology Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens GPS monitoring Broad public support for alternatives Trend toward Managing for Results Budget pressure Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Implications
Central Question is Being Reframed How can we demonstrate that were tough on crime?
How can we deliver taxpayers the best return on their investment?

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NEW

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting Americas Prison

Population, 2007-2011
Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007