The Millennium Development Goals:

Approaches to Transformation
By Rui A. Gomes
06 July 2009
Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals…
Timor-Leste: Vision 2020 Corresponding M D G

East Timor will be a democratic country with a  

prosperous society with adequate food,
shelter and clothing for all people and a
sustainable environment
People will be literate, knowledgeable and
skilled. They will be healthy, and live a long
productive life

They will actively participate in economic,

social and political development, promoting
social equality and national unity

Production and employment will increase in

all sectors

Living standards and services will improve for

all, and income will be fairly distributed

Prices will be stable and food supplies The Millennium Declaration

secured. The economy and finances will be
managed efficiently, transparently, and will
be free from corruption
The state will be based on the rule of law The Millennium Declaration
 Population growth is high but human
development indicators are low

3.5 0
Population growth, 2002-06

Timor-Leste

Sub-Saharan Africa
Fuel exporters

Pacific Islands

Developing Asia
3.0 (in percent pa) 25

2.5 50

2.0 75
Sub-Sahara Africa

100
Developing Asia

1.5
Fuel Exporters

Pacific Islands

Timor-Leste 125
Developing

1.0
Countries

150
0.5 Human Development Ranking 2008
179 (1-179, 179 is the lowest)
0.0
Human development indicators are low even in
oil-producing countries

1
Norway Australia Iceland

Singapore
0.9 Portugal

Malaysia
0.8
Thailand
Azerbaijan
Philippines
Indonesia
VietNam
0.7 Cape Verde

Sao Tome and Principe

0.6
Myanmar
Cambodia
Timor-Leste
Sudan
Papua New Guinea
0.5 Nigeria
Angola Oil-producing countries

0.4 Chad
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
0.3

0.2
 The current
situation...
• One in two Timorese is poor

• Poverty is multidimensional
and it is not just about income
• Vulnerable groups are the most
affected

• Poverty affects men and

women differently
• High unemployment rate
amongst youth and
underemployment
• Domestic violence and crime
are prevalent
 Mapa konoba densidade ema kiak
MAP OF DENSITY OF POVERTY

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1 Dot = 20 people below the poverty line

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Map produced by Mekong Economics Ltd and NSD for UNOPS AMCAP/OCAP Project For details of methodology visit http://www.mekongeconomics.com
Timor-Leste may miss this target...

50%

36%

14%
Food security is key to achieve Goal
1...
In 2001, the children who died before they reached the age of five
were 144/1000. In 2006, the rate dropped to 125/1000. The
target to be reached by 2015 will be 96/1000.
Services are not down to suco and aldeia levels yet...
The possibility of an outbreak of HIV/AIDS in near future...
The incidence of malaria in Timor-Leste remains high...In 2000 the
cases detected were 113/1000, and increased to 206/1000 in
2006. The targt is to bring the incidence down to 45/1000 by
2015...
Unemployment continues to be a big challenge...It is expected
that the high growth rate in the domestic economy would
create more job opportunities, particularly to the young...
 Scaling-up for the MDGs…

Scaled-up plans to achieve the

MDGs based on country needs
assessments

MDG
Target

Slow/little progress to date

1990 2002 2007 2015

MDG BASE MDG

YEAR TARGET
YEAR DEADLINE
 FROM TECHNOCRATIC TO DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIC CHOICE FOR

ACHIEVING THE MDGs

EXISTING APPROACH PROPOSED APPROACH

• EXPERT DRIVEN
• RIGID FRAMEWORK • COUNTRY DRIVEN
• COST ESTIMATES DERIVED
FROM INACCURATE • FLEXIBLE PROCESS
MODELS
• ASYMMETRY • EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY
MAKING

• EQUITY
 What’s next?

• Stimulate the domestic economy through

rural development
• Invest in human capital
• Invest in infrastructure
• Promote peace and stability
How much it will cost to reduce income poverty?

Table 1: Yearly Investment in US Dollars (million)

Required to Meet Poverty Headcount Ratio Target in
Rural Area

Anti-poor growth Neutral growth Pro-poor growth

2008 75.90 52.06 46.89
2009 66.92 53.18 45.80
2010 62.63 51.74 44.60
2011 63.56 51.97 43.63
2012 63.11 52.27 42.88
2013 64.23 50.31 42.20
2014 65.91 49.00 41.16
2015 64.19 48.35 40.31