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Biostat 6651 Lecture 2 Fall 2013 30 Sep 2013 Dr. Lynn Eudey
Estimate proportions within each category Test whether the observed proportions fit our expectations
Bivariate
Estimate proportions within each cell or marginal categories Test for independence of variables
4.
5.
6. 7.
Set up Null and Alternative Hypothesis Use statistical notation Translation of your hypothesis about the population Set or level of significance Choose an appropriate test statistic State a decision rule Default: if p-value < then Reject H0 Collect your data and calculate observed value of the test statistic and p-value State a statistical decision Translate the statistical decision into everyday English
Example
M&Ms claims
24% blue, 20% orange, 16% green, 14% yellow, 13% red, 13% brown We want to test this claim Count the number of each color out of 50 M&Ms from a large bag of well-mixed M&Ms
13 blue, 8 orange, 10 green, 6 yellow, 8 red, 5 brown
Test
Our proportions of the colors are not exactly what we would expect, but they are close.
Test Statistic: Chi-squared =
( ;)2
Test
See chalkboard
This is called a Goodness-of-fit test because we are seeing whether our data fit our proposed distribution of colors
Bivariate Data
Independence:
If
the probabilities of one variable do not change over the different categories of the second variable then the two variables are called independent
Bivariate Data
Independence:
If
the probabilities of one variable do not change over the different categories of the second variable then the two variables are called independent Two variables are independent if and only if = : :
510
1601
162,527
H0: = : :
HA: : :
Use 5% level of significance Use Chi-squared statistic, has 1 d.f. Decide to Reject H0 if observed Chi-squared > 3.8416
Calculated Chi-Square
Row margins
Seat
belt on for 413,037/ 577,165 or 0.7156 No Seat belt on for 164,128/577,165 or 0.2844
Column margins
Fatal
Expected Frequencies
Injury Fatal
Seat Belt On No Seat Belt
Not Fatal
411,509 163,545
1528 583
Deviations
Injury Fatal
Seat Belt On No Seat Belt
Not Fatal
1018 -1018
-1018 1018
Chi-square statistic
2 =
= 678.22 +++
Highly significant Reject H0 Wearing seat belts and fatality at accidents are definitely not independent. You are more likely to suffer a fatal accident (if you are involved in an accident) if you are not wearing a seat belt.