HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Null & Alternative Hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing

Use sample based statistics to make inferences about a population (e.g., X vs. , s vs. ) Accept a level of uncertainty with how well our sample reflects the population
Given this, hypothesis testing aims to answer the question: What is the probability that the sample statistic (e.g. sample X mean = ) that we observe from our data accurately reflects our population of interest (e.g. population mean = )

Null Hypothesis

Null Hypothesis:
There

is no EFFECT, or no DIFFERENCE

H0 : 1 = 2
H0

= the null hypothesis 1 = the mean of sub-population 1 (e.g., special forces) 2 = the mean of sub-population 2 (e.g., intelligence officers)

Alternative Hypothesis

Alternative Hypothesis

There IS an EFFECT, or a DIFFERENCE

HA: 1 2
HA = the alternative hypothesis 1 = the mean of sub-population 1 (e.g., special forces) 2 = the mean of sub-population 2 (e.g., intelligence)

Important Note: The alternative hypothesis may specify a direction of the predicted difference between groups
() not equal to - non-directional (>) greater than - directional (<) less than - directional

Congruent vs. Incongruent Example

A researcher wonders if students who study material printed on the same color as the test used to evaluate their knowledge do better than students who study material printed on a different color than the test in printed on. The researcher asks 10 students to study material printed on yellow paper for 20 minutes, while 10 students study the same material printed on pink paper for 20 minutes. All students are tested on yellow paper. Thus, there is a congruent group (group 1) in which the paper color for study and test is the same and an incongruent group (group 2) where they differ. Each group is then tested with a multiple-choice test on how much they remember. Each participants score consists of how many multiple-choice questions were answered correctly out of 10.

Discussion

What is the DV? What is the IV? What is the null hypothesis? What is the alternative hypothesis?

P-Value

P-Value is the probability that the sample statistic we observed comes from a population where the null hypothesis (H0) is TRUE
If

there is a high probability that our statistic occurred by chance (p > .05), then we have found evidence that our statistic is consistent with the H0 If there is low probability that our statistic occurred by chance (p < .05), then it is likely that our statistic is not consistent with the H0

P-Value

If the P-Value is > .05

We RETAIN The null hypothesis No statistical significance

If the P-Value is < .05

We REJECT the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis Statistically significant

Important Note: Based on the p-value obtained, we

are NOT proving or disproving that the null hypothesis is correct. We are evaluating whether the hypothesis of no difference (i.e. the null) should be rejected based on the data

Military Training Example

A military training class of 20 participants covers academic and physical fitness objectives over a four week period. At the end of the course, awards are given to the participants who demonstrate exceptional performance in academic and physical exams, which is represented in a single score below. On this occasion, the participants are drawn from two different military occupations: a group from Intelligence and a group from Special Forces. Intelligence officers are generally engaged in gathering and analyzing intelligence data for the planning of field operations. Special Forces officers are generally engaged in going into the field and performing the operations.

Discussion

What is the DV? What is the IV? What is the null hypothesis? What is the alternative hypothesis?

Means: Special Forces = 89.8; Intelligence = 76.9 Standard Deviation: Special Forces = 2.97; Intelligence = 7.68 A test of the differences in means had a p < .001

Is there a difference in military occupations (special forces versus intelligence officers) with regards to academic and fitness scores?

Steroid Example

A group of weightlifters were randomly tested for steroid use. The following table displays the results of the drug test and the amount of weight in pounds the weightlifters were able to bench press and leg press.

Drug test result positive negative positive positive negative negative positive negative negative positive positive negative

Bench press (pounds) 425 470 445 500 415 430 439 452 428 480 465 250

Leg press (pounds) 725 615 680 625 535 515 620 670 640 715 720 440

Discussion

What is the DV? What is the IV? What is the null hypothesis? What is the alternative hypothesis?
Bench Press Means: Negative = 407.5; Positive = 459.0 Bench Press Standard Deviation: Negative = 79.59; Positive = 27.96 A test of the differences in means had a p < .165

Is there a difference in bench press weight between those that tested positive versus negative for steroid use?

Correct and Incorrect Decisions

Truth/Reality

H0 is True
(e.g. group means dont differ)

H0 is False
(e.g. group means differ)

Reject H0
Decision
(e.g. group means differ)

Type I Error

Correct Decision

Fail to Reject H0
(e.g. group means dont differ)

Correct Decision

Type II Error