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07/05/2013
Slide 3
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07/05/2013
Leveraged loan issuance hit a record $323 billion in 2Q13, up 11% from the previous record of $290 billion set in 1Q13. Once again refinancings and repricings dominated issuance. YTD leveraged loan issuance is now at $614 billion, with institutional loan issuance accounting for 62% of this total.
07/05/2013
60.0
40.0 20.0 0.0 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Despite the market volatility in June, institutional loan issuance amounted to $191 billion in 2Q13, a 1% drop from the 1Q13 total as issuers continued to take advantage of excess investor demand for loans and repriced their debt. Institutional loan issuance has totaled $385 billion in 1H13 compared to $142 billion in the same period last year. After posting a monthly record of $46.8 billion in May, high yield bond issuance fell to $13.8 billion in June amid the increased market volatility, bringing YTD volume to $174 billion.
07/05/2013
Refinancing/repricing activity represented the majority of institutional loan issuance in 2Q13 as issuers particularly in April and June took advantage of strong lender appetite for assets to cut spreads and extend maturities. YTD new money institutional issuance has amounted to $105 billion, only a 27% share of overall institutional loan volume.
07/05/2013
While lenders continue to hope for an increase in M&A deal flow, volume remains relatively muted. Year to date, M&A leveraged loan issuance has amounted to $84 billion, with LBO activity accounting for $38 billion (46%) of this activity.
May-13
Mar-12
Apr-12
Mar-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Feb-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jan-12
Jun-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
07/05/2013
Covenant-lite loan issuance totaled $61 billion in 2Q13, bringing year to date issuance to $140 billion. Indicative of how popular cov-lite loans have become this year is that in the same half year period a year ago, cov-lite loan issuance amounted to only $26 billion.
07/05/2013
6.0
4.0 2.0 0.0
Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 May-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Feb-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Given the lack of M&A activity and the strong lender appetite in the market, sponsors availed of dividend recap financings, particularly in June when loan volume totaled $11.4 billion. This brought 2Q13 dividend recap loan volume to $21 billion and year to date volume to $31 billion.
May-13
Aug-12
Jun-13
Jan-13
07/05/2013
Large MM*
Trad. MM* Overall MM
40.0
30.0 20.0 10.0
1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
0.0
*Traditional MM: Deal Size <=$100M, Large MM: Deal Size >$100M to $500M, For all: Borrower Sales <$500M
Middle market lending picked up in 2Q13, amounting to $51 billion, up from $41 billion in 1Q13. Like in the large corporate market, new money volume was in the minority, representing 31% of middle market lending in 2Q13.
10
07/05/2013
European leveraged loan issuance amounted to $35 billion in 2Q13, down from $40 billion in 1Q13. While refinancing activity still represented the majority of European leveraged loan volume, its share fell to 64% in 2Q13 from 80% in 1Q13.
11
07/05/2013
20%
10% 0% 1H04 2H04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 2008 2009 1H10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
The average equity contribution in the large corporate market in 2Q13 was 30%, down from 32% in 1Q13 and 35% in 4Q12.
12
07/05/2013
The institutional loan pipeline has fallen to $29.5 billion as of June 27, down from $57 billion in mid-June as opportunistic refinancings were put on hold due to market conditions. M&A accounts for just over half of the pipeline volume, with refinancing/repricing representing 22% and the dividend recap share at 13%.
13
07/05/2013
6.0%
5.0% 4.0% 1Q10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Given the volatility in the bond and equity markets in June, primary market loan yields in the large corporate market increased to 5.2% in June from 4.6% in May. New issue middle market loan yields also moved higher, averaging 6.8% in June, up from 6.3% in May.
14
07/05/2013
Flow names are down nearly 1 point from their recent high, with the SMi100 average bid at 98.23 as of month-end June, down from 99.15 in May. The broader market (all multi-quote institutional term loans) finished June at 98.66, down 87 bps from a high of 99.53 in May but still up 126 bps this year .
15
07/05/2013
98.0
Avg. Bid (% of par) 96.0 94.0 92.0 90.0 88.0 12/31/10 1/31/11 2/28/11 3/31/11 4/30/11 5/31/11 6/30/11 7/31/11 8/31/11 9/30/11 10/31/11 11/30/11 12/31/11 1/31/12 2/29/12 3/31/12 4/30/12 5/31/12 6/30/12 7/31/12 8/31/12 9/30/12 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13 4/30/13 5/31/13 U.S. SMi100 European Leveraged 40
European flow names, like their U.S. counterparts have moved off their highs, finishing June at 98.54, down from a high of 99.79. Despite the recent drop, European flow names have gained roughly 83 bps this year.
16
07/05/2013
85.0 80.0
1/12/11 2/12/11 3/12/11 4/12/11 5/12/11 6/12/11 7/12/11 8/12/11 9/12/11 10/12/11 11/12/11 12/12/11 1/12/12 2/12/12 3/12/12 4/12/12 5/12/12 6/12/12 7/12/12 8/12/12 9/12/12 10/12/ 11/12/12 12/12/12 1/12/13 2/12/13 3/12/13 4/12/13 5/12/13 6/12/13 75.0
The average bid on covenant-lite loans is now at 99.11 as. Second-liens are at 95.45, still up 342 bps this year.
17
07/05/2013
3.5
12/11/ 10/11/ 10/11/ 2/11/12 5/11/12 12/11/ 11/11/ 8/11/12 2/11/13 7/11/12 8/11/11 1/11/12 6/11/12 9/11/12 5/11/13 1/11/13 11/11/11 4/11/12 6/11/13 9/11/11 7/11/11 4/11/13 3/11/12 3/11/13
3.0
After falling as low as 4.46% in mid-May, the average yield on the top 100 flow names has increased to 4.78 as of month-end June.
18
07/05/2013
30.0%
20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12/31/09 1/31/10 2/28/10 3/31/10 4/30/10 5/31/10 6/30/10 7/31/10 8/31/10 9/30/10 10/31/10 11/30/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 2/28/11 3/31/11 4/30/11 5/31/11 6/30/11 7/31/11 8/31/11 9/30/11 10/31/11 11/30/11 12/31/11 1/31/12 2/29/12 3/31/12 4/30/12 5/31/12 6/30/12 7/31/12 8/31/12 9/30/12 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13 4/30/13 5/31/13
As the market softened recently, the share of loans bid in the par-plus region has fallen sharply. Par-plus loans now account for 42% of the broader secondary market (multi-quote institutional term loans), down from a high of 79% in May. The par-plus share of flow names is now at 32% (down from a high of 69%) .
19
07/05/2013
The share of loans bid in the 101-plus region has tumbled recently as bids have moved lower. The 101-plus share is now at 7%, down from 39% in early May.
20
07/05/2013
Issuance ($ Bils.)
After posting a monthly record of $46.8 billion in May, high yield bond issuance fell to $13.8 billion in June amid the increased market volatility, bringing YTD volume to $174 billion. In the corresponding period last year (1H12), issuance stood at $139 billion.
22
07/05/2013
In keeping with the recent drop in high yield bond issuance, senior secured high yield bond issuance fell to $1.9 billion in June. So far this year, $34 billion of senior secured bonds have been issued, a similar amount to that issued in the same period last year.
23
07/05/2013
Repay Bank Loan or Bridge Financing Redeem Existing Bonds or Securities Tender Offer Merger and Acquisition General Purpose Leveraged Buyout Capital Expenditure General Purpose/Refinance Dividend or Distribution to Shareholders N/A Property Expenditure (acquisition or development) Aircraft & Ship finance General Purpose/Acquisition General Purpose/Stock Repurchase Stock Repurchase
Bond-for-loan takeout volume ($56 billion) has been the biggest use of bond proceeds so far in 2013. Next is bond repayments at $34 billion.
07/05/2013
14.0
Issuance ($ Bils.) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
0.0
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-109 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
After posting a monthly record of $14.6 billion in May, bond-for-loan takeout activity fell in June to $4.2 billion. Year-to-date, $56 billion of bond proceeds have been designated to take out loans, compared to $45 billion in the same period a year ago.
25
07/05/2013
25.0
Issuance ($ Bils.) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
B CCC NR
Aug-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Mar-12
May-12
B rated issues accounted for just under half (49%) of HY bond issuance in June. BB rated issues have led the way YTD representing 46% of issuance, versus a 41% share for B rated deals and 13% for CCC rated issues.
May-13
Mar-13
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jan-12
Jun-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
26
07/05/2013
Across markets, volatility was heightened in June amid hints that the Federal Reserve may soon taper off its bond buying program. Treasury rates climbed and money flowed out of the bond market. Breaking out high yield bond fund flows, mutual funds saw outflows of $8.5 billion in June (through June 26), while ETF outflows totaled $2.9 billion. YTD, outflows have amounted to $6.9 billion for HY bond mutual funds and $3.1 billion for HY bond ETFs.
27
07/05/2013
300.0
Net Assets ($ Bils.) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0
0.0
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 * Does not include assets bought via leverage
High yield bond fund net assets fell to roughly $300 billion at the end of June as money flowed out of these funds due to fears around rising interest rates. The current net asset level is similar to that recorded at the start of the year and is still up from $274 billion held a year ago.
28
07/05/2013
8.0
7.0
6.0 Aug-12 Dec-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 May-12 May-13 Mar-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 Apr-13
* Yield to maturity
The average new issue bond yields (YTM) increased to 7.91% in June as investors pulled back and money flowed out of the asset class. New issue bond yields have averaged 6.64% overall in the first half of 2013.
Jan-12
Jun-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
29
07/05/2013
HY BOND YIELDS
Yield (%) 20.0 14.0 18.0 22.0 12.0 16.0 10.0 24.0 6.0 8.0 BARCLAYS U.S. HIGH YIELD BOND INDEX 4.0
1/3/00 4/3/00 7/3/00 10/3/00 1/3/01 4/3/01 7/3/01 10/3/01 1/3/02 4/3/02 7/3/02 10/3/02 1/3/03 4/3/03 7/3/03 10/3/03 1/3/04 4/3/04 7/3/04 10/3/04 1/3/05 4/3/05 7/3/05 10/3/05 1/3/06 4/3/06 7/3/06 10/3/06 1/3/07 4/3/07 7/3/07 10/3/07 1/3/08 4/3/08 7/3/08 10/3/08 1/3/09 4/3/09 7/3/09 10/3/09 1/3/10 4/3/10 7/3/10 10/3/10 1/3/11 4/3/11 7/3/11 10/3/11 1/3/12 4/3/12 7/3/12 10/3/12 1/3/13 4/3/13
After falling to a record low of 4.95% in early May, the yield on the Barclays U.S High Yield index has now increased to 6.66% in the face of fears over rising interest rates.
30
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
07/05/2013
270.0
250.0
230.0 210.0 190.0 170.0 150.0 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Jul-12 Nov-12
U.S. CLO assets under management is now at $284 billion (based on a universe of 730 CLOs in Thomson Reuters LPC Collateral).
Number of CLOs
32
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
07/05/2013
0.0
Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2007 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2008 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
Thanks to continued inflows, loan mutual funds & ETFs had roughly $116 billion in net assets at the end of June, and when taking into account the leverage employed by closed-end funds, total assets are estimated to be approximately $123 billion.
33
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
07/05/2013
*Based on a universe of 730 U.S. CLOs **Based on S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index outstandings
CLOs hold roughly 44% of institutional loan outstandings, while loan mutual funds & ETFs currently account for 19%.
34
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
07/05/2013
$ Bils.
Aug-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
May-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
CLO issuance totaled $7.9 billion in June, bringing YTD issuance to $43.8 billion. Loan funds (mutual funds & ETFs) inflows amounted to $4.8 billion in June (through June 26), pushing YTD inflows to over $31.5 billion.
35
May-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
INVESTOR OVERVIEW
07/05/2013
Combined U.S. CLO issuance and loan fund inflows through June have totaled $75.4 billion.
36
07/05/2013
AAA CLO spreads averaged 117 bps in June, similar to the levels seen in the prior month. CLO issuance increased to $7.9 billion in June, up from $5 billion in May. Issuance amounted to $16.8 billion in 2Q13, down from $27 billion in 1Q13.
38
07/05/2013
The average size of the 89 new CLOs issued in the first five months of 2013 was $493 million. Just under half (49%) of these new CLOs have exceeded $500 million in size. The average size of the AAA tranche this year is $292 million, while the equity tranche size has averaged $50 million.
39
07/05/2013
U.S. CLOs aggregate principal balance is now at $284 billion, European CLOs are at 74 billion euros (based on a universe of 730 U.S. CLOs and 211 European CLOs in Thomson Reuters LPC Collateral).
40
07/05/2013
U.S. CLOs
European CLOs
30% 70%
41%
59%
Roughly 70% of U.S. CLO assets are held in CLOs that are still in their stated reinvestment period. For European CLOs, this figure is a much lower 41% .
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07/05/2013
83%
91%
*Based on a universe of 689 U.S. CLOs *Excludes 2012 & 2013 CLOs not yet in TR LPC Collateral
U.S. CLOs that are still in their stated reinvestment period have a higher share of their assets in loans (91%) compared to CLOs past their reinvestment date (83%), and have a corresponding lower share of cash, bonds, and structured products.
42
07/05/2013
88%
85%
European CLOs that are still in their stated reinvestment period have a lower share of their assets in loans (85%) compared to CLOs past their reinvestment date (88%), and have a higher share of cash, bonds, and structured products.
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07/05/2013
50
$ Bils.
40
30 20 10 0 <=2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Reinvestment end date 2016 2017
The aggregate principal balance of U.S. CLOs reaching their reinvestment end data in 2013 is $67 billion. The APB of CLOs scheduled to reach their reinvestment end date from 2014 onwards is $162 billion.
44
07/05/2013
97 to <98
98 to <99
93 to <94
91 to <92
94 to <95
96 to <97
Half of U.S. CLOs have a weighted average bid (on their underlying assets) in the 99-plus range. European CLOs have lower weighted average bids, with the majority (59%) in the 91 to 95 range.
45
99 to <100
92 to <93
95 to <96
>=100
07/05/2013
<90
The weighted average bid on CLO assets fell in June amid the pick up in volatility across the markets. 72% of U.S. CLOs now have a weighted average bid (on their underlying assets) in the 98-plus range, down from 80% a month earlier. Most visibly, the par-plus share fell from 39% to 3% .
46
07/05/2013
The weighted average bid of assets in U.S. CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period are higher than those past their reinvestment date. 87% of CLOs in their reinvestment period have a weighted average bid >=98 versus 51% of CLOs past their stated reinvestment date. At the upper end, 71% of CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period now have a weighted average bid >=99, down from 84% last month.
47
96 to <97
97 to <98
>=100
07/05/2013
European CLO asset prices moved lower in the last month in the face of market volatility. 14% of European CLOs now have a weighted average bid above 95, down from 30% in May, and 23% in April, but its still above 7% share recorded at the start of the year.
48
94 to <95
85 to <86
>=95
<80
07/05/2013
15%
10% 5% 0% 99 to <100 <80 86 to <87 98 to <99 89 to <90 93 to <94 91 to <92 94 to <95 80 to <85 90 to <91 92 to <93 88 to <89 95 to <96 85 to <86
The weighted average bid of assets in European CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period are higher than those past their reinvestment date. 43% of CLOs in their reinvestment period have a weighted average bid >=94 versus 25% of CLOs past their stated reinvestment date.
49
96 to <97
97 to <98
87 to <88
>=100
07/05/2013
The vast majority of loans (90%) held by U.S. CLOs are scheduled to mature from 2016 onwards. For European CLOs, 77% of loan holdings are scheduled to mature from 2016 onwards. Looking at a longer time frame 27% of U.S. CLOs loan holdings are scheduled to mature from 2019 onwards. For European CLOs, the corresponding share is 14%.
50
07/05/2013
U.S. CLO LOAN HOLDINGS BY MATURITY DEC 2012 VS. JUNE 2013
U.S. CLO LOAN MATURITIES 30.0% Share of maturing loan volume Dec-12 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 >=2019 Jun-13
Based on the most recent holdings data available, the maturity profile of U.S. CLO loan holdings has changed so far this year as refinancing activity and new deal flow have pushed out maturities. Over half (51%) of loan holdings mature from 2018 onwards, up from 32% at the end of last year.
51
07/05/2013
The term to maturity of European CLO holdings has also lengthened. Over half (55%) of loan holdings are scheduled to mature from 2017 onwards, up from 44% at the end of last year.
52
07/05/2013
U.S. CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period hold longer dated loans. 60% of loans in CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period are scheduled to mature from 2018 onwards. The corresponding figure for loans in CLOs post their reinvestment date is 31%.
53
07/05/2013
LOAN HOLDINGS BY MATURITY FOR U.S. CLOS STILL IN THEIR REINVESTMENT PERIOD: DEC 2012 VS. JULY 2013
CLO LOAN MATURITIES 30.0% Share of maturing loan volume Dec-12 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jun-13
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
>=2019
For U.S. CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period, 35% of loan holdings mature from 2019 onwards, up from 14% at the end of last year.
54
07/05/2013
European CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period also hold longer dated loans, but this trend is less pronounced than in the U.S. 37% of loans in CLOs still in their reinvestment period are scheduled to mature from 2018 onwards, versus 29% of loans in CLOs past their stated reinvestment date. In the nearer term, 21% of loans in CLOs still in their reinvestment period are scheduled to mature prior to 2016, versus 24% of loans in CLOs post reinvestment date.
55
07/05/2013
Loans rated Ba3 and above account for 19% of U.S. CLO loan holdings. 54% of underlying loans are rated B1 or B2. Loans rated B3 and below account for 19% of CLO loan holdings.
56
07/05/2013
The B1 and B2 rating categories are the most popular for both U.S. CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period (55% share) and those past it (51% share). Loans rated Ba3 and above account for a smaller share of assets for CLOs still in their reinvestment period (18%) versus those past their reinvestment end date (21%).
57
07/05/2013
3.0 2.0
1.0 0.0
*Based on a universe of 689 U.S. CLOs **Excludes 2012 & 2013 CLOs not yet in TR LPC Collateral
Based on the most recently available reports, U.S. CLOs have roughly 6.4% of their assets in cash. More recent vintage CLOs (which tend to still be in their reinvestment period) have a lower share of their assets in cash. For this sample of CLOs, cash balances amount to $17 billion.
58
07/05/2013
U.S. CLO CASH BALANCE DISTRIBUTION PRE VS. POST REINVESTMENT END DATE
CASH BALANCE PRE VS. POST REINVESTMENT END DATE 35% Share of U.S. CLOS (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
0 to 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 to 6 to 7 to 8 to 9 to 10 to 11 to 12 to 13 to 14 to 15 to 16 to 17 to 18 to 19 to >=20 <1 <2 <3 <4 <5 <6 <7 <8 <9 <10 <11 <12 <13 <14 <15 <16 <17 <18 <19 <20
39% of U.S. CLOs past their reinvestment period have more than 10% of their assets in cash. The corresponding number for CLOs still in their reinvestment period is 16%.
59
07/05/2013
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% CLO vintage
Based on the most recently available reports, European CLOs have around 4.7% of their assets in cash. Cash balances amount to 3.4 billion euros.
60
9.0% 8.0%
07/05/2013
EUROPEAN CLO CASH BALANCE DISTRIBUTION PRE VS. POST REINVESTMENT END DATE
CASH BALANCE PRE VS. POST REINVESTMENT END DATE 30% Share of European CLOS (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
0 to <1 1 to <2 2 to <3 3 to <4 4 to <5 5 to <6 6 to <7 7 to <8 8 to <9 9 to <10 10 to <11 11 to <12 12 to <13 13 to <14 14 to <15 15 to <16
16% of U.S. CLOs past their reinvestment period have more than 10% of their assets in cash. The corresponding number for CLOs still in their reinvestment period is 6%.
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07/05/2013
U.S. CLOs*
European CLOs
46% 54%
42% 58%
Roughly 54% of U.S. CLO cash is held in CLOs that are still in their stated reinvestment period. For European CLOs, this figure is 42%.
62
07/05/2013
U.S. CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period hold more loans with higher spreads. CLOs still in their reinvestment period have a higher share (54%) of loans with contractual spreads in the 350-plus bps range. The corresponding share for CLOs past their stated reinvestment period is 47%.
63
07/05/2013
CONTRACTUAL LOAN SPREADS FOR U.S. CLOS STILL IN THEIR REINVEST PERIOD: DEC 2012 VS. MAY 2013
CONTRACTUAL LOAN SPREADS FOR U.S. CLOS 25.0% Share of CLO loan assets Dec-12 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <200 200 to 250 to 300 to 350 to 400 to 450 to 500 to 550 to 600 to 650 to >=700 <250 <300 <350 <400 <450 <500 <550 <600 <650 <700 Contractual spread (bps) Jun-13
U.S. CLOs have seen the contractual spreads on their loan holdings decline this year due to the spate of refinancings and repricings. 54% of loans held by CLOs still in their reinvestment period have a spread in the 350-plus bps range, down from 65% at the start of the year.
64
07/05/2013
CONTRACTUAL LOAN SPREADS ALL U.S. CLOS VS. MIDDLE MARKET CLOS
CONTRACTUAL LOAN SPREADS ALL U.S. CLOS VS. MIDDLE MARKET CLOS 25.0% Share of CLO loan assets 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <200 200 to 250 to 300 to 350 to 400 to 450 to 500 to 550 to 600 to 650 to >=700 <250 <300 <350 <400 <450 <500 <550 <600 <650 <700 Contractual spread (bps) All U.S. CLOs U.S. Middle Market CLOs
U.S. Middle Market CLOs have a higher share (53%) of loans with contractual spreads in the 400-plus bps range. The corresponding share for all U.S. CLOs is 34%.
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07/05/2013
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
<200 200 to 250 to 300 to 350 to 400 to 450 to 500 to 550 to 600 to 650 to >=700 <250 <300 <350 <400 <450 <500 <550 <600 <650 <700 Contractual spread (bps)
Active European CLOs hold a slightly higher share of higher spread loans. Loans with a spread >=450 bps account for 33% of loan holdings for CLOs still in their reinvestment period versus 31% for CLOs post reinvestment date.
66
07/05/2013
1.20
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 <=2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
10.0%
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009-10 2011 CLO Vintage 2012 2013
*Based on a universe of 689 U.S. CLOs **Excludes 2012 & 2013 CLOs not yet in TR LPC Collateral
1.3% of U.S. CLO assets are in default. Older vintage CLOs hold a higher share of defaulted assets. For CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period, 0.77% of their assets are in default versus 2.49% for those CLOs past their reinvestment date.
67
07/05/2013
2.7% of European CLO assets are in default. For CLOs still in their stated reinvestment period, 1.8% of their assets are in default versus 3.4% for those CLOs past their reinvestment date.
68
07/05/2013
12.0%
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Bus. Services
Healthcare
Technology
Broadcasting
Fin. Services
Wholesale
Services
Gen Mfg.
Telecom
Utilities
Retail
Auto
For U.S. CLOs, the top sector loan holdings are Healthcare (13.8%), Technology (10%), and Retail & Supermarkets (5.9%) . The top 10 sectors account for 65% of overall U.S. CLO loan holdings.
69
Media
07/05/2013
12.0%
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Broadcasting
Wholesale
Bus. Services
Restaurants
Healthcare
Services
Gen Mfg.
Technology
Telecom
For European CLOs, the top sector loan holdings are Broadcasting (11.8%), Healthcare (11.3%), and General Manufacturing (10.2%) . The top 10 sectors account for 70% of European CLO loan holdings.
70
Utilities
Retail
Media
07/05/2013
1
2 3 4 5 6 7
Citi
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo JP Morgan Goldman Sachs Credit Suisse
8,430.90
6,513.63 5,738.75 3,713.78 3,359.75 2,819.32 2,431.70
17
12 11 8 7 6 4
19.2%
14.9% 13.1% 8.5% 7.7% 6.4% 5.5%
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Deutsche Bank
RBS Securities Jefferies UBS GreensLedge Natixis Stormharbour Securities BNP Paribas Stiefel Nicolaus Guggehheim
2,419.38
2,276.95 1,887.50 1,356.60 825.75 740.00 515.00 361.35 310.20 140.00
5
5 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
5.5%
5.2% 4.3% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3%
72
07/05/2013
4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ares Management
Och Ziff Capital Management CIFC ING Alternative Investment Management Sankaty Advisors Octagon Credit Investors Western Asset Management Halcyon Asset Management BlueMountain Columbia Management Investment Advisers LCM Asset Management Oak Hill Advisors Prudential Investment Management Symphony Asset Management Ice Canyon GoldenTree Asset Management Oaktree Madison Capital (MM) CVC Marathon Asset Management MJX Asset Management
1,350.80
1,253.25 1,166.25 1,088.25 1,038.50 1,033.69 1,017.92 979.80 941.95 937.30 936.50 925.90 835.80 827.50 775.50 668.75 655.18 631.23 617.36 614.25 600.00
2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
3.1%
2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
07/05/2013
35
36 37
3i Group
Benefit Street Partners Babson Capital Management
510.10
506.90 490.75
1
1 1
2.6%
2.5% 2.5%
38
39 40 41 42 43 44 44 46 47
471.38
467.10 465.00 461.53 455.33 425.50 421.00 421.00 417.35 417.30
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2.4%
2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
07/05/2013
49
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
415.72
414.95 414.30 413.50 413.50 413.19 412.80 412.71 412.30
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4.8%
4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
58
59 60 60 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
Fortress
Invesco Sound Point Capital Management TCW OFSI Aegon USA Investment Management Palmer Square Capital Management Telos Asset Management NXT Capital (MM) JMP Group Arrowpoint Asset Management Matlin Patterson KCAP Financial
412.00
411.90 400.00 400.00 394.15 365.25 362.35 361.35 357.94 340.00 310.20 300.25 140.00
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4.7%
4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 1.6%
75
07/05/2013
Loan funds (mutual funds & ETFs) continued to experience strong inflows in June, while HY bonds saw large outflows. Loan fund inflows amounted to $4.8 billion (through June 26), while high yield bond fund outflows totaled $11.4 billion.
77
07/05/2013
Year to date (through June 26), loan funds have pulled in $31.4 billion, while in contrast high yield bond funds have suffered outflows of $10 billion
78
07/05/2013
Breaking out loan fund flows into the mutual fund and ETF categories, we see that loan mutual funds have pulled in $28.3 billion year to date (through June 26), while ETFs have added $3.2 billion.
79
07/05/2013
Open-end loan funds lost an average of 0.66% in June, the first negative month since May 2012. In comparison the S&P/LSTA loan index lost 0.59% in June. In the first half of 2013, open-end loan funds returned 2.37% on average versus a gain of 2.31% for the S&P/LSTA loan index.
80
07/05/2013
Jul-11
Nov-11
HY bond funds posted their second consecutive monthly loss in June. Open-end HY bond funds lost 2.52% in June, compared to a loss of 0.66% for loan funds. Year to date, open-end HY bond funds have gained 1.36% while loan fund returns are at 2.37%.
81
Nov-12
Mar-13
Mar-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Jan-11
07/05/2013
Price
Spread
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Spreads for the CDX IG Index continued to increase in June finishing the month 12 bps wider at 89 bps. Similarly, prices on the CDX HY index dropped to the 103 context, over 2 points lower than a month ago, widening the spread to the 420 bps context.
83
12/4/2009 3/4/2010 6/4/2010 9/4/2010 12/4/2010 3/4/2011 6/4/2011 9/4/2011 12/4/2011 3/4/2012 6/4/2012 9/4/2012 12/4/2012 3/4/2013 6/4/2013
Spread (bps)
07/05/2013
Average bank CDS spread climbs from 117 bps at the end of May to a high point of 161 bps before retreating to the 145 bps context by month-end June.
*The index tracks counterparty risk as reflected by average spreads of 5 year CDS for the top CDS dealers that operate in the CDS market.
84