WORK SAMPLING AND

STRUCTURED ESTIMATING

BY
MEGHANT NICHANT
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEER - IE
Work sampling is a method of finding the percentage occurrence of a
certain activity by statistical sampling and random observations.
 Work sampling, or activity analysis, is the process of making sufficient
random observations of an operator’s activities to determine the relative
amount of time the operator spends on the various activities associated
with the job.

The major goal of work sampling is to determine how long, or how much of
the work day, is spent on specific types of work.
 Work sampling may identify the fact that certain operators spend a large
portion of their time waiting for work, or performing paperwork tasks, or
even performing activities that are not included in their job descriptions.
 One of the basic foundations of statistical sampling theory is the concept
that the larger the sample size, the results will be better or more accurate.
 In work sampling, a sufficient number of observations must be made to be
sure that the results accurately summarize the work performed. There are
statistical formulas to help determine how many observations should be
made.
 The number of observations that an analyst must make of a particular job
also depends on how much time is devoted to a particular task.
CONDUCTING A STUDY
 It is recommended that a uniform procedure should be followed to perform a
work sampling study is to
1. Establish the Purpose
 First, the objective of the study should be established. Work sampling can be
used to determine an overall perspective on the work done.
2. Identify the Subjects
 Second, the people performing the task must be identified, i.e. general office
work is being studied with the objective of determining overall productivity.
3. Identify the Measure of Output
 The third step in making the study is the identification of the measure of the
output produced or the types of activities performed on the jobs being studied.
This step is especially important if the objective of the study is to measure
productivity with the intent of setting a standard.
4. Establish a Time Period
 Fourth, the time period during which the study will be conducted must be
established. Starting and stopping points for the study must be defined as well.
5. Define the Activities
 This step involves defining the activities that are performed by the people under
study. For example, the definition used in a machine utilization study, including
only the categories of working, idle, and idle-mechanical breakdown.
6. Determine the Number of Observations Needed
 After the work elements are defined, the number of observations for the desired accuracy at
the desired confidence level must be determined. The sample size is dependent on the
percentage of time believed to be spent on the major work element.
 If a reasonable guess cannot be made, then a trial study of perhaps 20 to 40 observations
should be made to get an estimate of this portion. These initial observations should be
included with the rest of the observations taken during the rest of the work study.
7. Schedule the Observations
 Once the number of required observations has been determined, either from appropriate
statistical calculations or from tables, the actual observations must be scheduled. Typically,
the analyst will assign an equal number of observations each day during the course of the
study.
 For example, if 800 observations are required and 20 work days are established as an
appropriate observation time, 40 observations should be recorded each day.
 A random number table can be used to establish the random times for each observation.
8. Inform the Personnel Involved
 Before the study is actually performed, the personnel involved should be informed about the
objective of the study and the methodology that will be employed. As in any productivity
measurement study, this part of the procedure is very important.
 Workers and their supervisors might think that they personally are being measured rather
than the work they are doing.
9. Record the Raw Data
 The next and perhaps the easiest part of any work sampling study is the actual recording of
the raw data. Although this recording can be performed by anyone, it is desirable that a
trained analyst be employed.
 It is also very important that the observations be made at exactly the same location every
time. Failure to be reliable in this manner may bias the results.
10. Summarize the Data
 After the data have been collected, they must be summarized.
A few words about sampling
 Sampling is mainly based on probability. Probability has been defined
as “the degree to which an event is likely to occur”.
 A simple and often-mentioned example that illustrates the point is that
of tossing a coin.
 The law of probability says that we are likely to have 50 heads and 50
tails in every 100 tosses of the coin. The greater the number of tosses,
the more chance we have of arriving at a ratio of 50 heads to 50 tails.
 The size of the sample is therefore important, and we can express our
confidence in whether or not the sample is representative by using a
certain confidence level.

Establishing confidence levels

 Let us go back to our previous example and toss five coins at a time,
and then record the number of times we have heads and the number
of times we have tails for each toss of these five coins. Let us then
repeat this operation 100 times.
 If we considerably increase the number of tosses and in each case
toss a large number of coins at a time, we can obtain a smoother
curve, such as that shown in figure 89.
 To make things easier, it is more convenient to speak of a 95 per cent confidence
level than of a 95.45 per cent confidence level.
 To achieve this we can change our calculations and obtain:
 95 per cent confidence level or 95 per cent of the area under the curve = 1.96

99 per cent confidence level or 99 per cent of the area under the curve = 2.58

99.9 per cent confidence level or 99.9 per cent of the area under the curve = 3.3

 In this case we can say that if we take a large sample at random we can be confident
that in 95 per cent of the cases our observations will fall within ± 1.96
Determination of sample size
 As well as defining the confidence level for our observations we have
to decide on the margin of error that we can allow for these
observations.
 Let us look at our example about the productive time and the idle time
of the machines in a factory. There are two methods of determining
the sample size that would be appropriate for this example:
 the statistical method and the nomogram method.

Statistical method. The formula used in this method is:

 Let us assume that some 100 observations were carried out as a preliminary
study and at random, and that these showed the machine to be idle in 25 per
cent of the cases (p = 25) and to be working 75 per cent of the time (q = 75).
 We thus have approximate values for p and q; in order now to determine the
value of n, we must find out the value of .
 Let us choose a confidence level of 95 per cent with a 10 per cent margin of
error (that is, we are confident that in 95 per cent of the cases our estimates will
be ± 10 per cent of the real value).
Nomogram method
An easier way to determine sample size is to read off the number of observations
needed directly from a nomogram such as the one reproduced in figure 91.
Making random observations
 To ensure that our observations are in fact made at random, we can
use a random table such as the one in table 12.
 Various types of random table exist, and these can be used in
different ways. In our case let us assume that we shall carry out our
observations during a day shift of eight hours, from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m.
An eight-hour day has 480 minutes. These may be divided into 48
ten-minute periods.
 We can start by choosing any number at random from our table, for
example by closing our eyes and placing a pencil point somewhere
on the table. Let us assume that in this case we pick, by simple
chance, the number 11 which is in the second block, fourth column,
fourth row (table 12).
 We now choose any number between 1 and 10. Assume that we
choose the number 2; we now go down the column picking out every
second reading and noting it down, as shown below (if we had
chosen the number 3, we should pick out every third figure, and so
on).
 11 38 45 87 68 20 11 26 49 05
 Looking at these numbers, we find that we have to discard 87, 68 and 49
because they are too high (since we have only 48 ten-minute periods, any
number above 48 has to be discarded).
 Similarly, the second 11 will also have to be discarded since it is a number that
has already been picked out. We therefore have to continue with our readings
to replace the four numbers we have discarded. Using the same method, that is
choosing every second number after the last one (05), we now have14 15 47
22
 These four numbers are within the desired range and have not appeared before.
Our final selection may now be arranged numerically and the times of
observation throughout the eight-hour day worked out. Thus our smallest
number (05) represents the fifth ten-minute period after the work began at 7
a.m. Thus our first observation will be at 7.50 a.m., and so on (table 13).
Example: Conducting the study
 Determining the scope of the study. Before making our actual observations, it is
important that we decide on the objective of our work sampling.
 The simplest objective is that of determining whether a given machine is idle or
working.
 In such a case, our observations aim at detecting one of two possibilities only:

 We can, however, extend this simple model to try to find out the cause of the
stoppage of the machine:
Making the observations
 So far we have taken the first five logical steps in conducting a
work sampling study.

selecting the job to be studied and determining the objectives of
the study;
 making a preliminary observation to determine the approximate
values of p and q;

in terms of a chosen confidence level and accuracy range,
determining n (the number of observations needed) determining
the frequency of observations, using random tables;

designing record sheets to meet the objectives of the study.

There is one more step to take: that of making and recording the
observations and analyzing the results.
Group sampling techniques
 As the name suggests, these are designed for the measurement of
work carried out by groups of workers.
 The techniques are sometimes referred to by the term “high-frequency
sampling” since, when used for the measurement of short-cycle work,
they use fixed short-time intervals with the observer in constant
attendance.
 They are very close to time study but have the advantage that the
observer can cover the work of the group. Group sampling techniques
may make use of rating.
 Consider a very simple example of three workers each producing the
same parts by a process that involves only hand tools. The sampling
is carried out at 0.5 minute intervals and involves the categories of
“working” and “not working” only.
 The sampling observations have been rated and this is an example of
both rated activity sampling and group sampling.
 The sampling sheet would look as shown in table 14.