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Angka Pengangguran Alamiah dipengaruhi oleh: Minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search
Angka Inflasi dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar yang ditentukan oleh Bank Sentral
Dalam jangka pendek terjadi tradeoff antara pengangguran dan inflasi Phillip Curve
A Phillips curve
Phillip Curve
Menggambarkan hubungan jangka pendek antara pengangguran dan inflasi yang muncul karena adanya perubahan pada Agregate Demand. Ketika pemerintah ekspansi AD, maka tingkat pengangguran akan turun, namun inflasi akan meningkat Ketika pemerintah kontraksi AD, maka tingkat inflasi akan turun namun pengangguran akan meningkat
Figure 2 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level Short-run aggregate supply B A High aggregate demand Low aggregate demand Inflation Rate (percent per year) 6
106 102
A 2 Phillips curve
Quantity of Output
4 (output is 8,000)
Pada tahun1960an, Friedman dan Phelps menyimpulkan bahwa inflasi dan pengangguran tidak berhubungan di jangka panjang. Sehingga di jangka panjang kurva phillip curve vertikal pada titik natural rate of unemployment. Kebijakan moneter akan efektif di jangka pendek, namun tidak di jangka panjang.
Inflation Rate
1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . .
High inflation
Low inflation
Unemployment Rate
Figure 4 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
(b) The Phillips Curve Long-run Phillips curve 3. . . . and increases the inflation rate . . . B
Price Level
Long-run aggregate supply 1. An increase in the money supply increases aggregate B demand . . . A AD2 Aggregate demand, AD
Inflation Rate
Quantity of Output
Unemployment Rate
Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation. The Feds ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the short run.
Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to get unemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.
Unemployment Rate =
Expected Natural rate of unemployment - a Actual inflation inflation
This equation relates the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment, actual inflation, and expected inflation.
Inflation Rate
A
1. Expansionary policy moves the economy up along the short-run Phillips curve . . . 0
Figure 10 Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run
1. Contractionary policy moves the economy down along the short-run Phillips curve . . .
Inflation Rate A
Unemployment 2. . . . but in the long run, expected Rate inflation falls, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the left.
Copyright 2004 South-Western
The short-run Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations. The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply.
Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can worsen the short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level AS2 Inflation Rate
(b) The Phillips Curve 4. . . . giving policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. B A PC2
Aggregate supply, AS
P2
B A
Y2
Y 2. . . . lowers output . . .
Quantity of Output
To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output. When the Fed combats inflation, the economy moves down the short-run Phillips curve. The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment.
Sacrifice Ratio Mengukur berapa persen output tahunan yang dikorbankan untuk mengurangi tingkat inflasi sebesar 1 persen. Misalnya, Untuk mengurangi inflasi dari 10% sampai 4% dengan output tahunan sebesar 30 %, berapa persen output yang harus dikorbankan? Untuk mengurangi inflasi sebesar 6% maka membutuhkan sacrifice ratio sebesar 5 persen.
The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future. Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust. The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated.