Sea Level Raises

The Earth is Warming

Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
∆°C

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year [Hansen et al., 2005]
What Causes Sea Level to Change?
The Bathtub Sea Level Model
Precipitation over Oceans
Runoff from Continents

Evaporation from Oceans

Precipitation over Continents
 What is Global Mean Sea Level
Change?
• “Global Mean Sea Level
Change” is the change in the
average height of the oceans
over the entire globe at a single
point in time.
• Sea level change at a specific
location in the ocean may be
higher or lower than the global
mean because of differences in
ocean temperature and other
effects.
• Usually measured in units of
millimeters (mm): 25.4 mm = 1
in
• Does not include ocean tides,
 Land Movement Can Affect Sea Level
Locally
InSAR Image of Subsidence in New Orleans

mm/yr
[Dixon et al., 2006]
Measurements of Sea Level Change

GRAVITY
Tide Gauge Sea Level Measurements
Tide Gauges with Greater Than 10 Years of Measuremen

Tide Gauges with Greater Than 50 Years of Measuremen

 Tide Gauge Observations
150

3.2 mm/year

100

2.0 mm/year
50
∆MSL (mm)

0.8 mm/year
0

­50
Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year

­100
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
[Church and White, 2006]
 Satellite Altimeters
Jason-1
2001 - ?
TOPEX/Poseidon
1992-2005

OSTM/Jason-2
2008
Global Mean Sea Level from Satellite
Altimetry
Average Rate = 3.5 mm/year
(1993-2006)

1997-1998
El Nino

[Mitchum and Nerem, 2007

Sea Level Change is Not the Same
Everywhere
Average Sea Level Rise over 1993-2006

mm/yr
Sea Level Change Potential
Contributions
Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter

Mountain Glaciers: 0.5 meters

Greenland Ice Melt: 7 meters

Antarctic Ice Melt: 60 meters

Land Water Storage: < 0.5 meters

Thermal Expansion: Contribution to Sea
20
Level
Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004)

15 Rate = 1.2 - 1.6 mm/year (1993-2004)

10

5
∆MSL (mm)

Mt. Pinatubo
0

­5

­10

­15
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
[Levitus et al., 2005; Antonov et al., 2005
Mountain Glaciers: Contribution to Sea
Level
25
1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year

1994-2003: 0.9 mm/year

20

∆MSL (mm)
15

10

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year

[Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005]

 Greenland Ice Mass Loss from GRACE

300
362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL
200

100

Gt/year
0

­100

­200

­300
-140 Gt/year = 0.4 mm/year GMSL
­400
2003.5 2004 2004.5 2005 2005.5 2006 2006.5
Year
Credit: Roger Braithwaite

[Luthcke et al., 2006]

Greenland Melt Extent
 Antarctic Ice Mass Flux from InSAR
SLR 0.4 to 0.6 mm/yr -4 km3/yr
-2 km3/yr
-2 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr
-37±20 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

-49±20 km3/yr -3 km3/yr

+48 km3/yr
-38 km3/yr -4 km3/yr

-114 km3/yr

-22 km3/yr

-56 km3/yr +33 km3/yr

-33 km3/yr

+21 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr [Rignot, 2005]

 Sea Level Budget (IPCC, mm/year)
1993-2003 1961-2003
Thermal Expansion 1.6 ± 0.5 0.4 ± 0.1

+ Mountain Glaciers 0.8 ± 0.2 0.5 ± 0.2

+ Greenland Ice Melt 0.2 ± 0.1 0.1 ± 0.1

+ Antarctic Ice Melt 0.2 ± 0.3 0.1 ± 0.4

Land Water Storage ? ?

=Total of Observed Contributions2.8 ± 0.7 1.1 ± 0.5

Observed Sea Level Change3.1 ± 0.7 1.8 ± 0.5
 Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating?
• Short answer: probably
• The satellite sea level record
is too short (~14 years) to
rule out that the recent rise
is due to natural decadal
variability.
• This is only likely to be
resolved by having a longer
satellite data record (~30
years).
• The decline in satellite
programs in recent years
has put this in jeopardy.
Sea Level Observations versus
Predictions
Satellite Observations

Tide Gauge Observations

Climate Model Predictions

(IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001)

[Rahmstorf et al., 2007]
 What to Expect in the Future
• Future sea level
predictions are 5
.8°
uncertain because of
uncertainties in the
contributions of
1
Greenland and .4°
Antarctica.
• The IPCC 4th
Assessment projects
0.28 - 0.59 m of sea
level rise by 2100, but [Rahmstorf, 2007]
did not exclude higher
rates.
• In fact,
Even a recent study
if greenhouse gases were stabilized now,
suggests
substantialhigher
sea rates
level rise would continue for several
(0.5 - 1.4 m
centuries by 2100).
because of inertia in the climate system (~ 0.1
 Summary
• Observations of sea level change are consistent
with how we expect sea level to respond in a
warming climate.
• Sea level rose faster in the last decade than the
20th century average.
• Whether the current rate of rise is accelerating
can only be resolved with longer satellite time
series.
• Presently, ocean warming, melting of mountain
glaciers, and melting of the polar ice caps are
contributing in roughly equal amounts to the
observed rise.
• The largest uncertainty in future sea level rise
projections is the contribution of Greenland and
Antarctica.
Greenland Ice Mass Loss Estimates
Luthcke et al. [2006]
Krabill et al. [2004]
Zwally et al. [2005]
Rignot et al. [2006]
Velicogna and Wahr [2005]
Ramillien et al. [2006]
Chen et al. [2006]
Velicogna and Wahr [2006]

Mass
Loss

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

[Cazenave, 2006]
Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Estimates
Rignot and Thomas [2002]
Zwally et al. [2005]
Davis et al. [2005]
Velicogna and Wahr [2006]
Chen et al. [2006]
Ramillien et al. [2006]

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

[Cazenave, 2006]
 Sea Level Budget (1993-2006)
Thermal Expansion: 1.2 - 1.6 mm/year

+ Mountain Glaciers: ~0.6 - 1.0 mm/year

+ Greenland Ice Melt: ~0.2 - 0.5 mm/year

+ Antarctic Ice Melt: ~0.2 - 0.4 mm/year

Land Water Storage: ?

= Total: 2.2 - 3.5 mm/yearObserved by Satellites

Alaska Glacier Mass Changes from
GRACE

Sea Level Contribution of 0.3 mm/year over 2002-2004

[Tamisiea et al., 2005]
 Effects of Sea Level Rise

1 2
meter meters

4 8 G