Proposing Panarchy Theory as a synthesis and validation mechanism for ABM models of Sociological & Ecological Systems

SwarmFest 2013 Fahad Ahmad Khan Ivan Garibay University of Central Florida

The Goal Here is to

Panarchy as Meta-Stylized Fact for Complex Adaptive Systems simulation (specifically in Sociological and Ecological studies)

Devising Mechanisms, Algorithms, ABM Agent Rules for the observance of Panarchy in simulations

What does Panarchy Explain

Panarchy theory represents the evolution of complex adaptive systems in three dimensional space potential, connectivity & resilience

It is a qualitative description of the adjustment or adaptation of systems to change in external environment

Why is Panarchy deemed useful

Its a meta-model which helps to explain resilience of systems in terms of evolutionary network dynamics such as potential and connectedness

Resilient systems by definition should be able to adapt and adjust to unforeseen events, to absorb change and learn from diversity
It is widely accepted with only few counter examples

How does Panarchy work The Adaptive Cycle

There are four phases in the Panarchy model through which a function of the three variables should periodically cycle

The phases are Exploitation, Conservation, Release & Reorganization The variables are Potential, Connectedness & resilience

How does Panarchy work Panarchy Phases

Exploitation (r): Also referred to as the birth phase. This stage is one
of rapid expansion. Pioneer and opportunist species proliferate, building up biomass and greater connectedness. Therefore, in this stage, connectedness and stability increase. In ecological terms, this stage occurs when a population finds a fertile niche in which to grow.

Conservation (K): Also referred to as the growth and maturation

phase. This is a stage of slow accumulation and storage of energy and materials. Here, the biological capital is stored and connectedness reaches its peak. In ecology this stage occurs when a population reaches its carrying capacity and stabilizes for a time.

How does Panarchy work Panarchy Phases

Release (): Also referred to as the death phase. This stage occurs
rapidly in a system that has become over-connected. The release of stored carbon and nutrients is triggered and causes quick and drastic changes. In ecosystems this stage occurs when a population declines due to a competitor or changed conditions.

Reorganization (): Also referred to as the renewal phase. This stage

can also occur rapidly, where the system renews itself or flips into another state. This new state may be less productive and organized than the previous state. The reorganization phase is characterized by weak connections, weak organization and weak regulation, and is considered to be the most unpredictable stage. In ecological terms, during this stage certain members of a population are selected for their ability to survive despite competitors or changed conditions that triggered the release.

Phases in the Adaptive Cycle

The Normal Route in an Adaptive Cycle

Routes for Poverty and Richness Traps

How does Panarchy work Panarchy Variables

Potential
Potential means the possibility of novelty in the system. A rough analogue would be information content in the system.

Connectivity
Connectivity implies the richness of links between interacting entitles in the system. In terms of graph theory the it translates into density of edges between vertices (or links between nodes in Network Theory).

Resilience
Resilience is the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

2-D View of Panarchy

high

low

weak

strong

The space between consecutive arrow-heads is a qualitative indicator of the speed of the transition through phases

Conservation

Release

Reorganization

Exploitation

The Complete Adaptive Cycle

Examples
Functional Typology

Adaptive Cycle
Ecosystems Economics

r
Exploitation Entrepreneurship

K
Conservation Saturation / Monopolism Consolidation

Release Creative Destruction Breakdown / Revolt

Reorganization Innovation

Organizations & Bureaucracies

Structuration

Reformation

Exploitation

Exploration

http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/

Panarchy for ABMs

There are already models that show how to increase connectedness so the network follows power-laws e.g. Preferential Attachment by Barabasi] For Panarchy Jain and Krishnas model of Network Growth using Autocatalytic Sets is better because it also has diversity in terms of node roles and a mechanism for replication & differential fitness (competition) along with adherence to power-laws

Replication, Variation (Mutation) and Differential Fitness (Competition) guarantee evolution according to Daniel Dennett

Panarchy for ABMs

Their model exhibits the Punctuated Equilibrium phenomenon which is another word for periodic selforganization after system crashes Thus their model exhibits Panarchy in a Stylized manner Sand Pile models exhibit a stylized form of Panarchy but they only have dynamics of self-organization and no evolution

Panarchy for ABMs

Stefan Thurners model revolves around the mechanism of species recombination and this results in triggers Both Stefan Thurner and Krishnas models have exogenous forces for triggering extinction events and no dissipative mechanisms for death It would be interesting to see if endogenous mechanisms such as inhibiting feedbacks in the network could be devised for these triggers

Goals
Panarchy as Meta-Stylized Fact for Complex Adaptive Systems simulation (specifically in Sociological and Ecological studies)

Devising Mechanisms, Algorithms, ABM Agent Rules for the observance of Panarchy in simulations

Conclusion

Panarchy could act as a unifying mechanism for synthesis and validation of Agent Based Models for Sociological and Ecological Systems

Questions

Complexity A Generative Network approach for Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamic Networks

Genetic Algorithms Using Panarchy Theory to devise Genetic Algorithms A better paradigm for search in Genetic algorithms May result in development of adaptive controllers i.e. controllers that adapt their transfer function in response to continuously changing stimuli/environments

Increase in Novelty/Information/Innovation increases the width of the attractor basin for the next adaptive loop, thereby, increasing the resilience and stability of the system for the next adaptive cycle

Devise/Discover/Suggest mechanisms for the entry and exit of the system state through various phases of the adaptive Evaluate what would lead the system to go form the back loop into the forward loop i.e. from reorganization and then growth to consequently conservation and eventually release For Example, what is the mechanism for the punctuated equilibrium can be observed when the system goes from conservation to release Meta-Stylized fact for ABM simulations of socio-ecological systems