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Random
Truly
Random
Problems
Difficult
to isolate
Desirable Properties
When
exceptions
Integers
(Fixed)
Cycle
LCG
Most
initial seed denoted as X0 Appears random because of Modulo function Next random number depends heavily on previous X
Typical of linear, congruential generators Restricts period
Equations - LCG
Using LCG
Choosing Correct Input is Key LCG (a,c,m,X0)
1,6,15,12,13,2,11,8,9,14,7,4,5,10,3,0, 1,6,15,12,13,2,11,8,9,14,
When the next result depends upon only the previous integer, the longest period possible is P=M Odd/Even pattern lack of randomness results from using a power of two for M
Cycle LCG(5,1,16,1)
Table
Example #2
LCG(5,0,16,1)
Cycle (5,0,16,1)
Seed
Using
Enter the date and time into an equations and return an integer then make sure it is odd Standard seed for these equations
32 bit machines
N-Tuple Generalization
Choose
R1 and R2
Choose Rn and R(n+1) Then plot this point of interest in a surrounding area.
Plot
these points in succession The area will be uniformly covered by the LCG in a random order
Covering of only part of the unit or certain areas of the unit would prove to be not useful for Monte Carlo Methods
Embarrassingly Parallel'
Little
N Streams
N
Streams
Find Seeds
Find Seeds
LCG rule successively applied:
Increasingly popular
Lags are k and l M is power of 2
With
LFG
Computationally
simple
LFG (cont)
LFG are an attempt to improve LCG Similar to Combined LCG
Take 2 previous numbers in the sequence to produce a new number Where p and q are the lags Some arithmetic computation is performed Then mod that answer for the next number
Overview
Introduction
History Examples Applications Real
Life practices
Introduction
Define
The Monte Carlo method is a numerical method for solving mathematical problems using stochastic sampling. It performs simulation of any process whose development is influenced by random factors, but also if the given problem involves no chance, the method enables artificial construction of a probabilistic model.
Introduction cont
Similarly, Monte Carlo methods randomly select values to create scenarios of a problem. These values are taken from within a fixed range and selected to fit a probability distribution [e.g. bell curve, linear distribution, etc.]. This is like rolling a dice. The outcome is always within the range of 1 to 6 and it follows a linear distribution - there is an equal opportunity for any number to be the outcome.
Introduction cont
MC method is often referred to as the method of last resort, as it is apt to consume large computing resources; Characteristics: consuming vast computing resources have historically had to be executed upon the fastest computers available at the time and employ the most advanced algorithms implemented with substantial programming acumen.
Introduction cont
Major
History
History cont
History cont
The theoretical foundation of the method had been known long before first articles were published. Well before 1949 certain problems in statistics were sometimes solved by means of random sampling However, simulation of random variables by hand is a laborious process Use of the Monte Carlo method as a universal numerical technique became practical only with the advent of computers and high-quality pseudorandom number generators
History cont
Lord Rayleigh even delved into this field near the turn of the century. Fredericks and Levy in 1928 showed how the method could be used to solve boundary value problems Enrico Fermi in the 1930's used Monte Carlo in the calculation of neutron diffusion (involving nuclear reactors )
In 1768 Buffon, a French mathematician, experimentally determined a value of by casting a needle on a ruled grid
History cont
In
the 1940's, a formal foundation for the Monte Carlo method was developed by von Neumann (PDE) Stanislaw Ulam realized the importance of the digital computer in the implementation of the approach from collaboration results of the work on the Manhattan project during World War II
Examples
Simple
Examples cont
Figure S in the unit square, being covered with sampling points randomly
Examples cont
Applying
Examples cont
Buffon's
Needle:
A simple Monte Carlo method for the estimation of the value of , 3.1415926 Assumptions:
Suppose
you have a tabletop with a number of parallel lines drawn on it, which are equally spaced (say the spacing is 1 inch, for example). Suppose you also have a pin or needle, which is also an inch long.
Examples cont
Keep dropping this needle over and over on the table Record the statistics.
Keep track of both the total number of times that the needle is randomly dropped on the table N, and the number of times that it crosses a line N.
Examples cont
Findings:
2N/N= Because, the probability on any given drop of the needle that it should cross a line is given by 2/pi After many tries, N/N will approach the probability number.
Applications
Monte
Carlo methods can help in design and prediction of behavior of systems in nuclear applications and radiation physics The use of MC in the area of nuclear power has undergone an important evolution. Notable are the extensions to compute burnup in reactor cores, and full core neutronic simulations.
Applications cont
help
researchers understand the probability of the occurrence of an adverse effect associated with exposures to chemicals. Monte Carlo sampling simulates the distribution of total exposures, by simulating random samples of factors associated with each exposure route and accumulating them to arrive at an individual total exposure.
Applications cont
The use of MC methods to model physical problems allows us to examine more complex systems than we otherwise can. Solving equations which describe the interactions between two atoms is fairly simple; solving the same equations for hundreds or thousands of atoms is impossible. With MC methods, a large system can be sampled in a number of random configurations, and that data can be used to describe the system as a whole.
Applications cont
Random
numbers generated by the computer are used to simulate naturally random processes many previously intractable thermodynamic and quantum mechanics problems have been solved using Monte Carlo techniques
Monte Carlo
The microscopic world is described by quantum mechanics. We need to use simulation techniques to solve manybody quantum problems. Both the wavefunction and expectation values are determined by the simulations. QMC gives most accurate method for general quantum many-body systems.
Projects are often associated with a high degree of uncertainty resulting from the unpredictable nature of events
methods tend to be prohibitive (but some very difficult problems have finally been solved using MC) Monte Carlo is somewhat intuitive (and several good books have now been written on the subject) Computers continue to get faster and cheaper
Reference
http://random.mat.sbg.ac.at/links/m