Discrete probability distributions

The Binomial Distribution

Revision

Combinations the number of ways x elements
can be selected from n elements.

35
) 1 2 3 )( 1 2 3 4 (
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
! 3 ! 4
! 7
)! 4 7 ( ! 4
! 7
1 and 1 NB
)! ( !
!
4 7
0
=


= =

=
= =

=
C
C C
x n x
n
C
n n n x n
Binomial Probability Distribution
The binomial distribution has the following characteristics:
An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories, such as a success or failure.
The data collected are the results of counts in a series of
trials.
The probability of success stays the same for each trial.
The trials are independent.

For example, tossing an unfair coin three times.
H is labeled success and T is labeled failure.
The data collected are number of H in the three tosses.
The probability of H stays the same for each toss.
The results of the tosses are independent.

Binomial Probability Distribution
To construct a binomial distribution, let
n = the total number of trials
p = the probability of success
q =1- p be the probability of failure
x = number of successes in n trials
The formula for the binomial probability distribution
is:
P(x) =
n
C
x
p
x
q
n-x

EXAMPLE
x = number of patients who will experience
nausea following treatment with Phe-Mycin
2 4-2 2 2
4!
p(2) P(x=2)= (0.1) (0.9) =6(0.1) (0.9) =0.0486
2!(4-2)!
=
Find the probability that 2 of the 4 patients
treated will experience nausea.
n = 4 , p = 0.1 , q = 1 p = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9

Binomial Probability Distribution
The formula for the binomial probability distribution is:
P(x) =
n
C
x
p
x
q
n-x
TTT, TTH, THT, THH,
HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH.
X=number of heads
The coin is fair, i.e., P(head) = 1/2.
P(x=0) =
3
C
0
0.5
0
(1- 0.5)
3-0
=3!/(0!3!) (1) (1/8)=1/8
P(x=1) =
3
C
1
0.5
1
(1- 0.5)
3-1
=3!/(1!2!) (1) (1/8)= 3/8
P(x=2) =
3
C
2
0.5
2
(1- 0.5)
3-2
=3!/(2!1!) (1) (1/8)= 3/8
P(x=3) =
3
C
3
0.5
3
(1- 0.5)
3-3
=3!/(3!0!) (1) (1/8)= 1/8
When the coin is not fair, simple counting rule will not work.
x)! x!(n
n!
C
x n

=
Mean & Standard Deviation of
the Binomial Distribution

= np

o = npq
n = total number of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure

EXAMPLE
The Alabama Department of Labor
reports that 20% of the workforce in
Mobile is unemployed. From a sample of
14 workers, calculate the following
probabilities:
Exactly three are unemployed.
At least three are unemployed.
At least one are unemployed.

EXAMPLE
The probability of exactly 3:



The probability of at least 3 is:



The probability of at least one being unemployed:




2501 . 0 ) 0859 . 0 )( 0080 . 0 )( 364 (
) 20 . 0 1 ( ) 20 . 0 ( ) 3 (
11 3
3 14
= =
= C P
551 . 000 . ... 172 . 250 .
) 80 (. ) 20 (. ... ) 80 (. ) 20 (. ) 3 (
0 14
14 14
11 3
3 14
= + + + =
+ + = > C C x P
.956 .044 1
.20) (1 (.20) C 1
P(0) 1 1) P(x
14 0
0 14
= =
=
= >
EXAMPLE
Since p = 0.2 and n = 14.

Hence, the mean is:
= np = 14(0.2) = 2.8.

The standard deviation is:


= = = ) 8 . 0 )( 2 . 0 )( 14 ( npq o
Shape of a Binomial Distribution
Symmetric if p = .5


Skewed to right if p < .5


Skewed to left if p > .5
SYMMETRIC
SKEWED LEFT
SKEWED RIGHT