The River Carron: understanding the role of stocking in the restoration of salmon catches

Eric Verspoor
Bob Kindness Matthew Curran

Rivers and Lochs Institute Inverness College

University of the Highlands and Islands

Is this a convincing argument that eating more chocolate will win you a Nobel Prize? Is it a convincing argument that it wont?

Association of recovery in the salmon catch on the River Carron, Wester Ross,
with stocking of native fish
Carron Salmon Stocking vs Catches
230K Fr 170K Eg S2 S2 G G

250
Key: Eg - Eyed Eggs Fr - Fry P - Parr G - Grilse
8.5K P 0 Fr 6K Fr S2 S2 S2 S2 G G G G

175K Fr 170K Eg 159K Fr 12K P S2 S2 G S2 G

200

Catches

150

100
5K Fr 9K Fr 8K Fr

50

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Is this a convincing argument that stocking will restore the salmon run in your river? Is it a convincing argument that it wont?

Associations do not prove causality, they may be spurious!

- A three year research project (2012-2015) to carry out an objective scientific assessment of the impact of stocking on the recovery of the River Carron salmon stock and on the catches of salmon in the river

Project Aim:
- to determine whether existing data and information, combined with new information that can be collected, can provide compelling evidence for the actual impact of stocking (negative, neutral or positive) on salmon abundance, or whether the evidence is inadequate and results in an unproven verdict.

Project Methodology:
Review of historical information Monitor contribution of contemporary stocking using molecular markers Assess historical character of Atlantic salmon stock Conduct modelling assessments of the capacity of the stock to recover with and without stocking inputs Assess the contribution of catch and release to increased catch levels

Talk Outline
The River
Historical stock levels Salmon stock collapse

Postulated cause
Management Response Salmon stock recovery Cause of collapse Cause of recovery Overview of current work Conclusions??

River Carron
Wester Ross, Scotland

Historical stock levels

From the study of sea trout in Loch Dughaill 1936, 1937. During 3 visits to the loch.
1,614 sea trout and finnock netted. All fish tagged and scale sampled. 112 salmon caught as a by-catch.

4th visit in November 1937.

1,136 finnock and 411 adult sea trout (50 over 7 lbs, 1/3 over 4 lbs) were netted. Only 5 tagged fish were recaptured prompting the conclusion that the fish tagged were a small proportion of the total stock.

Salmon stock collapse

Rod catches of salmon and sea trout collapsed through the 1990s 1999 Rod catch of 5 salmon/grilse, 1 sea trout, 1 finnock 5-year average for salmon to 2001 was only 6.2 5-year average for sea trout to 2000 was only 11.2

Postulated cause

Spates and redd washout?

Management Response

Salmon stock recovery

5- year average for salmon for 2006-2010 was >200 2012 figure is 416 (138 salmon and 278 grilse) 2013 figure is 131 (93 salmon and 38 grilse)

Association of recovery in the salmon catch on the River Carron, Wester Ross,
with stocking of native fish
A 450 400 350
Thousands Stocked

Stocking

300 250 200 150 100 50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Comparison of catch statistics with those in other rivers

What does this tell us about

the cause of the decline?

the cause of the recovery and increase?

Investigation of the cause of collapse

Possibility A: cyclical fluctuations due to various, multiple natural factors Possibility B: higher episodic marine mortality associated with environmental changes in food, fish farm impacts Possibility C: higher episodic freshwater mortality due to environmental change e.g. spates, redd wash out
Absence of robust analysis/evidence related to all of these but. Natural fluctuations do occur and can be cyclical Exceptional episodic marine factors are known that could potentially depress populations Exceptional episodic freshwater factors are known that could potentially depress populations

Occurrence of extreme flood events and river bed erosional events: R. Tipping, Stirling University

Investigation of the cause of recovery

Possibility A: wild population has not recovered but catches are sustained by stocked fish Possibility B: wild population has recovered on its own

Possibility C: wild population recovery was facilitated by stocking and stocking makes minor contribution to catches with no detriment
Possibility D: wild population recovery occurred but the long-term sustainability is compromised by stocking

Mark and recapture

None of these possibilities can be ruled out at this point. Gathering and assessing the evidence under way.

Genetic Identification

Computer Modelling

Survival of stocked fish

Recapture rates of angled fish

Since 2005, rod caught salmon have been marked using a panjet before being released to assess possible subsequent captures 2005 34 marked, 3 caught twice 2006 79 marked, 11 caught twice 2007 120 marked, 13 caught twice 1 caught 4 times 2008 75 marked, 11 caught twice 5 caught 3 times 2009 54 marked, 15 caught twice 2 caught 3 times Information on multi-captures is vital if using rod catches to assess the overall run of salmon in a river

Demographic modelling
- Individual based stochastic model (Gilbey and Verspoor, submitted) - Successfully recreates Girnock Burn demographic dynamics

Genetic Tagging of stocked fish

- programme underway: genetically tagged fish have been stocked in 2012 and 2013 - Proportions of stocked fish among juveniles, smolts and returning adults will be assessed

Conclusions

Watch this space!