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Learning Objectives
Name two approaches to the valuation of common stocks used in fundamental security analysis. Explain the present value approach. Use the dividend discount model to estimate stock prices. Explain the P/E ratio approach. Outline other relative valuation approaches.
Fundamental Analysis
Two approaches to the valuation of common stocks used in fundamental security analysis are: 1. Present value approach Capitalization of expected income (capitalization of
income: A method of evaluating an investment by estimating future cash flows and taking into consideration the time value of money. also called Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis).
Intrinsic value based on the discounted value of the expected stream of future cash flows
Required Inputs
Discount rate
Required rate of return: minimum expected rate to induce/stimulate purchase The opportunity cost of Rupees used for investment
Stream of dividends or other cash payouts over the life of the investment
Required Inputs
Expected cash flows
Retained earnings imply growth and future dividends Produces similar results as current dividends in valuation of common shares
D1 D2 D Pcs ... 1 2 (1 k cs ) (1 k cs ) (1 k cs ) Dt t t 1 (1 k cs )
Must model expected growth rate of dividends and need not be constant
Fixed rupees amount of dividends reduces the security to a perpetuity (A constant stream of identical cash flows with no end. The formula for determining the present value of a perpetuity is as follows):
D0 P0 k cs
D1 P0 kg
Stock prices grow at the same rate as the dividends Stock total returns grow at the required rate of return
Growth rate in price plus growth rate in dividends equals k, the required rate of return
Ultimately, growth rate must equal that of the economy as a whole Assume growth at a rapid rate for n periods, followed by steady growth
P0
D0 (1 g1 ) (1 k)
t
t 1
Dn (1 gc ) 1 n k - g (1 k )
First present value covers the period of supernormal (or sub-normal) growth Second present value covers the period of stable growth
Expected price uses constant-growth model as of the end of super- (sub-) normal period Value at n must be discounted to time period zero
Example
Valuing equity with growth of 30% for 3 years, then a long-run constant growth of 6%
k=16%
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6% D0 = 4.00 5.20 6.76 8.788 9.315 4.48 5.02 5.63 59.68 P3 = 9.315 74.81 = P0 .10
Price received in future reflects expectations of dividends from that point forward
Intrinsic Value
Fair value based on the capitalization of income process
If intrinsic value >(<) current market price, hold or purchase (avoid or sell) because the asset is undervalued (overvalued)
If intrinsic value = current market price, an equilibrium because the asset is correctly valued
Divide the current market price of the stock by the latest 12-month earnings Price paid for each $1 of earnings
Payout ratio is the proportion of earnings that are paid out as dividends
The higher the expected growth rate, g, the higher the justified P/E The higher the required rate of return, k, the lower the justified P/E
Will the required return be affected? Are some growth factors more desirable than others?
As interest rates increase, required rates of return on all securities generally increase P/E ratios and interest rates are inversely related
Ratio of share price to per share shareholders equity as measured on the balance sheet Price paid for each $1 of equity
Ratio of companys market value (price times number of shares) divided by sales Market valuation of a firms revenues
Can future dividends be estimated with accuracy? Investors like to focus on capital gains not dividends
P/E multiplier remains popular for its ease of use and the objections to the dividend discount model
P/E ratio can be derived from the constantgrowth version of the dividend discount model Dividends are paid out of earnings Using both increases the likelihood of obtaining reasonable results
Copyright
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