MATH/STAT 425

Welcome! TODAY:
Introduction to the course Start Chapter 1 material

For next time:

Read Ch 1, 2.1, 2.2

Why probability?
Random process:

Examples:

Humans have poorly formed intuitions about random processes.

Examples
Gambling Red light/green light experiments (rat vs. human)
Goal: guess the next light as many times as possible

More examples
Birthday problem: What is the chance that at least two people in a room share a birthday (the day not necessarily the year) if there are 20 people in the room? 40 people? 60 people? 70 people?
# people 20 40 60 70

probability

In this room, there are about 50 people.

More examples
AIDS testing: Suppose 99% of people with AIDS test positive, 95% of people without AIDS test negative, and .1% of people actually have AIDS. What is the chance that a person who tests positive actually has AIDS?

This course
GOAL: Introduce a formal mathematical framework to better understand random processes.

STRUCTURE:
Lecture 2 times/week Roughly one assignment per week 2 midterm exams Final exam

Chapter 1 Combinatorial Analysis

Combinatorial Analysis:

With combinatorial analysis, we can

Outline of Chapter 1
Basic principle of counting (BPC) Permutations Combinations

Basic Principle of Counting

Ex1.1: A small community consists of 10 women, EACH of whom has 3 children. If one woman and one of her children are to be chosen as mother and child of the year, how many different choices are possible? (Hint: Draw a diagram)

Theorem: Two experiments

Suppose two experiments will be performed.

Example: More than two experiments

Ex1.2: A college planning committee consists of 3 freshman, 4 sophomores, 5 juniors, and 2 seniors. A subcommittee of 4 consisting of 1 person from each class is to be chosen. How many different subcommittees are possible?

A General Theorem (BPC)

Suppose r experiments will be performed.

Examples
Ex1.3: Suppose license plates have numbers in the first 3 places followed by 3 letters. (a) If letters and numbers and can be repeated, how many different license plates are possible?

(b) What about without repetition?

Permutations
Ex1.4: How many different ordered arrangements of the letters a, b, c are possible? Permutation: In general, suppose we have n objects, then there are different permutations of the n objects.

More Examples
Ex1.5: How many different batting orders are possible for a team consisting of 9 players?

Ex1.6: A class consists of 6 men and 4 women. An examination is given, and the students are ranked according to their performance. (a) How many different rankings are possible?

(b) If the men are ranked just among themselves, and the women are ranked just among themselves, how many different rankings are possible?

Undistinguishable permutations
Question: How many distinct arrangements can be formed from the letters
P O P? Answer:

Undistinguishable permutations
Question: How many distinct arrangements can be formed from the letters
P E P P E R ?

Answer:

Another example
Ex1.7: A chess tournament has 10 competitors, of which 4 are Russian, 3 are from the US, 2 are from Great Britain, and 1 is from Brazil. If the tournament result lists just the nationalities of the players in the order in which they place, how many different outcomes are possible?

Combinations
Ex1.8: A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 5 people. How many different committees are possible?

Combinations
Combination:

Notation:

In general,

Examples
Ex1.9: Senatorial committees:
(a) How many committees with 2 senators can be formed from a group of 5 senators?

(b) How many committees with 2 Republican, 2 Democrat, and 3 Independent senators can be formed from a group of 5 Republican, 6 Democrat, and 4 Independent senators?

Another example think about it for next time!

Ex1.10: A communication system is to consist of n antennas
that are to be lined up in a linear order. The resulting system is said to be able to receive all incoming signals and be called functional as long as no two consecutive antenna are defective. If it turns out that exactly m of the n antennas are defective, how many possible configurations of the antennas will make the system work?

Next time:
Finish Chapter 1 First HW assigned Tuesday (1/9) and due Tuesday 1/16 READ: Chapter 1.