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Agenda
Intermarket Analysis
Currency markets
US credit Markets
Commodity markets
Equity Markets
2
Currency Markets
USD downtrend nears termination
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
Three push divergence shifts 75
50
July August September October November December 2009 February March April May June July August September October
EURUSD
USDEUR - EURODOLLAR (1.46880, 1.47130, 1.46060, 1.46740, -0.00330)
1.60
1.55
Euro is expected to weaken from current
levels of 1.4730 1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
900
750
700
650
2007 600
550
500
450
400
2005
350
300
2002
250
660
July August September October November December 2009 February March April May June July August September October
Crude oil: consolidation to give way to a trend
LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (71.7800, 72.2000, 68.9600, 69.7100, -2.33000)
150
100.0%
140
61.8%
100
50.0% 90
80
38.2%
70
23.6% 60
50
40
0.0%
30
March April May June July August September October November December 2009 February March April May June July August September October
Natural gas turns in September again
NATURAL GAS CONTINUOUS 10000 MMBTU [NYMEX] (3.72200, 3.79700, 3.53200, 3.57600, -0.20200) 19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Copper uptrend nears completion
HG COPPER CONTINUOUS 25000 LBS [COMEX] (2.78350, 2.83150, 2.75050, 2.80550, +0.02050)
4.5
100.0%
4.0
3.5
61.8%
5?
3.0
50.0%
2.5
38.2%
3
23.6% 4 2.0
2007 November 2008 February April May June July August September November 2009 February April May June July August September
US Credit Markets
US 30 YR about to breakout
US TREASURY BONDS 30YRS - CONTINOUS [CBT] (120.844, 121.250, 120.562, 120.969, +0.28100)
145
144
143
142
141
140
139
138
137
136
135
134
133
132
131
130
129
128
127
126
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
August September October November December 2009 February March April May June July August September October
High Yields undeperforms the risk appetite
14000
2
13500
13000
12500
ii
12000
1 11500
11000
i
10500
9794 B or 2
j 10000
iv
9500
4
A 9000
8500
B 8000
iii
v 7500
3
7000
6500
5
A or 1
November 2008 February March April May June July August September November 2009 February March April May June July August September
S&P 500 approaches major turn date
S&P 500 INDEX (1,067.14, 1,067.28, 1,057.46, 1,064.66, -3.64001)
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
22 September 09
nd
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
November 2008 February March April May June July August September November 2009 February March April May June July August September
Nikkei 225
NIKKEI 225 INDEX (10,379.20, 10,399 .40, 10,292.50, 10,370.50, -73.2998)
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
July Augu st September October November Decem ber 2009 February March April May June July August Septem ber October
In Summary
USD index is in a process of forming a bottom. Last week price action points to
the possibility of a bottom if the index trades above 78.5
Commodity prices are not confirming the rise in risk appetite as industrial
metals continue to remain at brink of important support levels
Gold might give a major breakout trade if it continues to trade above $1000
this week, we remain bullish against $970 in the short term
Bond markets are consolidating before a major move. US 30 year bond price is
expected to rise to 124 although long term trend in still down
A strong blowout rally can be expected if USD turns down to support levels of
74 and below which might lead to marginal new highs in equity and some
commodity markets