Flood protection & Flood Management New Concepts for Security

Dutch examples

Global philosophy for flood protection and management in the Netherlands

Krystian Pilarczyk
Hydraulic Engineering Institute Rijkswaterstaat (Public Works Dpt.) Delft, the Netherlands

Short content of PP presentation

1. Introduction 2. Brief history 3. Basic principles of flood protection: Organisational and legal aspects Present approach and Safety Standards Future approach; ring dikes, probability of flooding/inundation and risk assessment; Space for rivers; Detention areas 4. Technical approach of design and maintenance 5. Safety Assessment/monitoring and Maintenance 6. Conclusions References and Bibliography (www.tawinfo.nl)

Developments

Last decades: increase economical values and population in coastal/riverine areas Large Disasters (Floods, Traffic, Planes, Fire, Earthquakes, Mud flow, etc.) Future developments: climate change, sea-level rising, soil subsidence, air/water pollution
Bas Jonkman

Why is flood defence important ?

Disaster 1953 in the Netherlands

Flood events:
flood event Sea 1953 Meuse 1993 Rhine 1995 Meuse 1995 Rainfall 1998 damage 1.500 106 250 10
6

victims 1835 -------------

500 106 165 106

We can not avoid the floods but we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage)

1.100 106

Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

Principal measures

Watersystem in NL

Watersystem & Rainfall problems in NL

Storage

Sea

Polder water water water

River

land

Storage

Storage

The history of flood defence

flooding mounds (higher grounds to escape) dikes settlement drainage systems storm-surge barriers occupation floodplains (warning systems, evacuation plans and actions) alternatives (i.e. floating objects/houses)

Historical developments:
Dutch history and (possible) future
(subsidence as an extreme event !?)

The Netherlands

- low-lying country level expected Sea-level rise subsidence

8 highest flood level in 1876 6 4 2 0

Dyke construction over the centuries

metres above Datum

dyke level raising in the 20th century dyke reinforc in the 1990s dyke in 1880 dyke in 1876 dyke in 1579

Time (year)

Examples of defence systems in NL

Dutch main rivers

North Sea

Amsterdam

Netherlands

Germany

Belgium

Brussels

Cologne Bonn

Meu se

Frankfurt

ine Rh

Luxemburg

France

Munich

Catchment area Length Type Mean discharge Peak discharge

Rhine 185.000 km2 1.320 km Snow melt + rainfall 2.300 m3/s 13.000 m3/s

Meuse 36.000 km2 935 km Rainfall 230 m3/s 3.000 m3/s

Switzerland Austria
Bern

General hydraulic boundary conditions

external driving forces: climate, Rhine, sea level, landsubsidence

scenario trend worse extreme
discharge at Lobith (m3/s)

24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000

T 0C Qrijn sea level rise land subsidence 2100 +1 0C 16.000 m3/s + 20cm setting of 0 +2 C 18.000 m3/s + 60cm peat and clay +4 0C 20.000 m3/s + 110cm tectonics mining Design discharges of the Rhein 0.1 - 0.8 m uncertainties
Even 18 000 or 20 000 m3/s ? 6000 e1 0 k lin e 1500 r o w k lin w or
1995 1926 1993

12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 1 2 5

1/1250
R3294 E000614b

20

50 100 200

1000

10000

Flood protection in NL
some facts
Flood Protection Law (1996): safety levels (probabilities) every 5 years, evaluation boundary conditions ( design discharges) and safety 2001, 2006: monitoring rounds Rhine design discharge higher 4e Policy Document on Water Management: heigthening dikes only a last resort. Instead: make room for rivers

Safety Standards NL
1 : 1250 1 : 2000 1 : 4000 1 :10000 hig h grounds

Threatens & Loadings

also animals

Flooding is one of the main causes of loss of life and loss of property and income in the world and, thus a major drain on welfare of people and an important cause of poverty

also

Extreme long dry period may induce failure of dikes and innundation
In the night from 25 to 26 august 2003 the regional dikes near Wilnis collapsed.

Also extreme event !

Our contribution to problems

(urbanisation)
City of Arnhem in 1830

City of Arnhem today

The two main items in flood protection are:

designing and construction a flood defence system (physical infrastructure)

designing and building a flood management system (organisation, information and tools)
With following interactions:
Natural system Infrastructure: dikes, dams, etc.

Observation & communication system

Professional system Users & beneficiaries

Flood defence system

physical system to deal with river discharges and/or storm surges up to a given frequency with limited consequences dike (height, stability) polder (spatial planning, local measures) river bed (widening floodplain, reducing resistance, deepening channels, etc) river system (reforestation, retention+nature, storage reservoirs, flooding sequence)

Flood management system

observations (rainfall, run off, discharges) prediction (short term, long term, models) communication (all kinds) decision (operation storage, retention, flood sequence, evacuation, emergency measures) implementation evaluation

Five systems have to interact:

natural system infrastructure, dikes, dams, etc, observation & communication system professional system users & beneficiaries

Some conclusions on flood protection systems:

The technical aspects of the natural systems and the flood defence system are usually well recognised The flood management aspects are less well treated (observations, models, professional education, political system/awareness) The building of a flood protection system takes a long time

Questions from practical engineers and policy makers

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20

You can get any answer you want! How uncertain is the result? What is the real probability? Make subjective part visible! How to deal with expert opinions?

I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions

Developments in water sector

development water supply:
sea level rising increase of fluctuations in river discharges increase of fluctuations and intensity of precipitation land subsidence

development water demand:

changes in nature areas changes in urbanization changes in agriculture changes in other forms of land use

Flood related issues

forecasting flood levels (Flood Early Warning Systems) risk assessment & safety standards improving crisis management plans the relation between spatial planning and flood management (how to prevent development of flood prone areas?) distribution over bifurcations

Flood Forecasting

water level Rhine at Lobith (border)> 14.00 m and expected to rise above 15.00 m +NAP at least twice a day for navigation population flood management
Rhine 185.000 km2 1.320 km Snow melt + rainfall 2.300 m3/s 13.000 m3/s

Lobith

Kln

M ainz Worms
3

Catchment area Length Type Mean discharge Peak discharge

Meuse 36.000 km2 935 km Rainfall 230 m3/s 3.000 m3/s

Rheinfelden

H Lobi th in [m +N AP]

Rhein catchments
H Lobi th in [m +N AP]

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1000
27-10-98 28-10-98 29-10-98 30-10-98 31-10-98 01-11-98 02-11-98 29-10-98 30-10-98 31-10-98 01-11-98 02-11-98 28-10-98 27-10-98

1200 1100

1300

1400

1600 1500

1700

Berekende voorspelling 3 dagen vooruit

Prediction of floods and warning system

H Lobith H Lobith
03-11-98 04-11-98 05-11-98 06-11-98 07-11-98 08-11-98 09-11-98 10-11-98

Berekende voorspelling 1 dag vooruit

vsp MLR+3 vsp MLR+1 datum

03-11-98 04-11-98 05-11-98 06-11-98 07-11-98 08-11-98 09-11-98 10-11-98 H Lobi th in [m +N AP]

datum

vsp Florijn+3 1100 1000

27-10-98 28-10-98 29-10-98 30-10-98 31-10-98 01-11-98 02-11-98

vsp Florijn+1

H Lobi th in [m +N AP]

1300 1200

1500 1400

1700 1600
27-10-98 28-10-98 29-10-98 30-10-98 31-10-98 01-11-98 02-11-98

1100 1000

1300 1200

1500 1400

1700 1600

Berekende voorspelling 4 dagen vooruit

Berekende voorspelling 2 dagen vooruit

H Lobith vsp MLR+4 vsp Florijn+4 datum

H Lobith vsp MLR+2

datum

03-11-98 04-11-98 05-11-98 06-11-98 07-11-98 08-11-98 09-11-98 10-11-98

03-11-98 04-11-98 05-11-98 06-11-98 07-11-98 08-11-98 09-11-98 10-11-98

vsp Florijn+2

Trends in Flood Management

From water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approach From a dike section to a ring-dike approach From flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disaster From dike heightening to making space for water Importance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and dissemination Flood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoring Sustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation

Risk of flooding
Risk = probability (Pfailure) x consequences Probability of failure
Structure Operation/human failure Management
Safety standards

worldwide

actual
1/20 1/50 1/100 1/500 future 1/1000 or more

Consequences of failure
casualties economic damage

Risk = probability (Pfailure) x consequences

Reducing Pfailure by :
proper spatial planning (including space for rivers, retention basins, etc) safer dam or dike (including periodical safety assessment of water defences)

Reducing consequences :
minimize casualties due to proper warning system and evacuation plans reduce damage by proper planning and building/construction regulations

Example:

Is (continuous) dike heightning a solution ???

The Netherlands

Consequences becoming higher and higher: (usually) limited space for dike hightening - landscape - nature -historical values

Reconstruction/heightening of dikes not

(always) the best solution

Studies are undertaken on measures to reduce the effects of an increase in discharge peaks of the rivers and sea level rise, in order to maintain safety without hightening dikes, taking into account the interest of nature, landscape and other functions

Consequences of flooding might increase

(Space for Rivers& Living with water)

Reduction of flood levels:

Space (room) for Rivers

water level (m+ MSL) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 860 870 880 890 900

without measures with all measures

Effect of measures

N ijmegen

Z altbommel

910

920

930

940

950

960

cross section

Living with floods - Alternative use of flood plains

Floating houses

Vietnam

Houses on piles

Floating hotels

Floods and Flood Risk in Netherlands

Actual approach

Scope (goal) of Flood Risk approach:

from present design (permissible) water levels per section - into flood (inundation) probability per dike ring

- into flood (inundation) risk per dike ring

= (probability x consequences) per dike ring Risk = (Pfailure) x consequences

Ring dike approach and examples of dike rings

Risk=probability x consequences

Risk = (Pfailure) x consequences

Safety Standards
Economic optimization

Risk = Probability x Consequences

Safety Standards Design frequency

Vietnam, China, etc.
1/20 actual 1/50 1/100 1/500 1/1000
Aspects: Fresh water (rivers) Salt water (sea) Low-lying land or not ? Cities (population) Economic areas (industry)

Future; Risk-based approach: probability x consequences (???!!!)

Actual (past) design philosophy

and minimum profile of river dikes

based

on design water level

However, there are also other failure modes

Flood (innundation) Risk

integrated approach innundation to water defences
Loading
<Typ naam hier> <Typ titel hier>

Resistance

failure mechanisms
<Typ naam hier> <Typ titel hier> <Typ naam hier> <Typ titel hier>

g= R L > 1.0
<Typ naam hier> <Typ titel hier>

Wave attack human failure geotechnical failure coastal erosion etc.

Present and Future approach/elaboration

Water levels Load models Resistance models A set of safety margins g= R L > 1.0
Improved load models Improved resistance models Consequence models Statistical models Reliability and Risk Calculations Optimisation/comparison with targets

However, models and data are still insufficient Type of uncertainty: * unpredictability of nature * lack of data, lack of knowledge

Dike strengthening: not only technical solutions

9

1 = do nothing

5 3 4 6 7

2 = dike hightning 3 = offshore wave dissipation 4 = higher foreshore 5 = milder outer slope 6 = roughness on slope 7 = apply a berm 8 = vertical wall on the crest

9 = allow larger overtopping; store water behind the dike/pump away

But also integrated/multifunctional solutions

Functional conflicts and design

living transport

nature

historical values

Economic optimalisation (1)

Example: P1 > P2
Lay-out
river

Section 1

Section 2 Longitudinal cross-section

Lowering water level

(dike heights)

Economic optimalisation (2)

Example: Dike heightning:inundation probability decreases Risk increases Lay-out
river
Section 2 Section 1

Longitudinal cross-section

(dike hights)

It is an engineering art to find a balance between all functional requirements and economic possibilities

Design process

Overview measures

- Technical - Ecological - Social

- Economic
which must be defined for specific region and project

Conflict with living

Landscape requirements Grass mats

Root system

Conflict of functions; some examples

Historical values

Safety assessement

Safety Assessment vs. maintenance

strength (load)

strength

design warning action failure

time
good (safe) sufficient (not unsafe)

criteria from design guidelines light damage (start of failure) breach = failure

insufficient (unsafe)

a. simple b. detailed c. advanced

good g g sufficient s

insufficient i i

New approach and regulations

DIVISION OF TASKS BETWEEN ADMINISTRATIVE ORGANS

During Flood event:

concerning protection against flooding and flood management State Provinces Municipalities

Water boards

More structured information is needed: Developing the

Hoogwater Informatie Systeem

Flood Management System

Operational situation
Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

Planning

HIS
Information supply Risk Analysis

National

Monitoring: Module 1 Flood Prediction

What if: scenarios: flooding: Modu le 2 damage: Mod ule 3 evacuation

Regional

Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft

Example of products

HISHighwater Information
System(Flood Management System)

Policy-making
risk assessment

scenarios for extreme

events which damage can occur physical effects of floods physical planning ensurances

Operational use during floods

(i.e. evacuation)

Damage assessment
Two elements:
Economic damage assessment Life safety assessment

Used in risk analysis Based on output of flood simulations

Economic Damage Assessment

Ground use

Damage Module

Damage Damage function

Inundation depth

Loss of life estimation

Mortality estimated as a function of flood- and system characteristics 3 areas:
Locatie bres

breach Rapidly rising Other causes

Slachtoffers door:
Effectgebied stroomsnelheden lijnelement Hoge stijgsnelheden Overige oorzaken

Correction factors:
Building quality Emergency response and rescue Shelter: high grounds and buildings

Current project: Veiligheid van Nederland in Kaart (FLORIS) = Safety mapping for Netherlands Combine Probability of flooding Full assessment of failure probabilities multiple dike Flood simulation rings Damage assessment Special attention for hydraulic structures How to present results? How to deal with uncertainties (to decision-makers, society) Further development of damage assessment Basis for ongoing safety discussion

Flood risk assessment

Bridge between
(communication)

State and Public

Research and Practice

Countries

Supplementary items:

Transfer know-how (technology transfer)

Capacity building Education Communication Public awareness

Risk-based design/safety approach is and needs advanced technology !!!!

(practical) problems vs. economy

Geotechnical (in-)stability and piping

River Waterdefence H Hinterland uplifting

B > 2H to 3H > 5H

In conclusion:

Trends in Flood Management

From water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approach From a dike section to a ring-dike approach From flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disaster From dike heightening to making space for water Importance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and dissemination Flood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoring Sustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation

Questions from practical engineers and policy makers

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20

You can get any answer you want! How uncertain is the result? What is the real probability? Make subjective part visible! How to deal with expert opinions?

I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions

Conclusive remarks

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20

design on risk based principles inherent and epistemological uncertainties expert opinions engineers not trained communication and presentation

Conclusions

There is no golden receipt against floods There is no absolute safety for ever Coping with Floods is an international problem We have to joint the forces and exchange our experience

Look also to: www.tawinfo.nl

Select: english, downloads

www.tawinfo.nl

Conclusion

We can not avoid the floods but we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage)

Thank you for your attention

www.tawinfo.nl

The end

Questions and discussion