Documente Academic
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IDM EDA
Suggested the study strategies for learning Statistics Presented the role of Statistics in the Scientific Process Reviewed basic concepts of Statistics including:
o Sample Selection & Data Collection o Initial Data Manipulation
DDA
PoC
Discuss Graphical Methods of Exploratory Data Analysis Present Basic Methods of Statistical Inference Introduce most commonly used statistical tests
FREQUENCY POLYGONS
Q-Q plots
A circular chart divided into sectors It illustrates numerical proportion Simple but flawed method Unsuitable for large data sets
response to interventions
It reveals trends very clearly
Perfusion of:
HORIZONTAL
Useful for presenting DISCRETE data Uses horizontal or vertical bars to show
Frequency
o widths represent class intervals (BINS): i.e. equal width groups into which data are put
Frequency
Histogram a.k.a: Frequency Plot (FP) TRUE HISTOGRAM (TH) differs from FP: TH uses RECTANGLES whose:
o widths represent class intervals (BINS): like F.P., but o areas (not heights) are proportional to the corresponding frequencies o heights equal to the Frequency Density of the interval, i.e., the frequency divided by the width of the interval o FP is identical to TH only when relative frequencies and bins of equal length are used for the FP
BINS
Frequency Density
Frequency
BINS
FREQUENCY:
the number of observations in
FREQUENCY
Bins
Term histogram sounds awkward for physicians It evokes the word (hystera=uterus), but this is just a coincidence
HISTOGRAM: representation of a frequency distribution by means of rectangles, whose widths represent class intervals (BINS) and whose areas are proportional to frequencies."
Data Set: {1,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,4,5,6} Divide it into BINS, note frequency: {[1] [2,2] [3,3,3,3] [4,4] [5] [6]}
The assignment pattern here is: Bin 1 contains 1: its frequency is 1 Bin 2 contains 2,2: its frequency is 2 Bin 3 contains 3,3,3,3: its frequency is 4, etc.
1 3 6 4 2
Frequency
HISTOGRAM allows to analyze dataset by reducing it to a single graph showing: significance of primary & secondary peaks
o Not well-defined
o a taller primary peak & a shorter secondary o Median & Mean are hard to localize
Outliers are hard to define as well
Thus: there is a very poor definition of one signal or two signals in data
Unlike histograms, frequency polygons can be superimposed It is used to compare frequency distributions of multiple datasets on one diagram
FREQUENCY
BINS
FREQUENCY
BINS
Favorite Movies
Comedy
4
Action
5
Horror
6
Drama
WILKINSON DP: Used for univariate data Simple representation of a distribution Useful for highlighting clusters, gaps & outliers in small datasets
CLEVELAND DP: Used for multivariate data Plots of points belonging to several categories Alternative to bar charts Bars are replaced by dots at the values associated with each category
Two columns separated by a line: o Right: Leaves contain last digit of the number o Left: Stem contains all of the other digits
Data set: 44,46,47,49, 63,64,66,68,68, 72,72,75,76, 81,84,88, 106
Useful for outliers and finding the mode Used in 80s (easy to make with typewriters) Became less common after computer
Displayed as:
Upper Whisker
Q3 Q2
Mean
MEDIAN
I Q R
Q1
Conventions used for the Box are uniform: Bottom: first quartile Q1 Line inside: Median Q2 Symbol inside (e.g.+): Mean Top: third quartile Q3 Height: Interquartile Range Width of the box is arbitrary, as there is no x-axis Spacings between parts of the box help indicate the degree of dispersion (spread) and skewness (asymmetry)
MEDIAN
Q1
All cases (but exceptions) fit between the upper & lower marks
Distribution is not symmetric: the median line is NOT in the middle of box
height in MvF
Spread is similar across in M&F:
y
THEORETICAL
y
THEORETICAL
y-coordinate: quantile of 2nd distribution QQ plot on line y=x -> DD are similar QQ plot near line y=x -> DD are linearly related Commonly used to compare an observed data
Statistics reflect acts of interpretation not absolute facts Conclusions of a statistical inference are statistical PROPOSITIONS Final Inference is obtained by using following interrelated propositions: ESTIMATION: calculation of the attribute of sample (statistic) representing the Best Estimate" of the attribute of population (parameter) CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: calculated region likely to contain true values of the attributes of interest, it indicates the reliability of an Estimate HYPOTESIS TESTING: consideration if chance is a plausible explanation of findings, it uses the data to decide if hypothesis - that there is no relationship between measured phenomena (Null Hypothesis) - can be rejected
Statistical ASSUMPTIONS: suppositions about mechanisms & features of Population & Sample Statistical Inference relays on them Statistical MODEL: set of statistical assumptions Assumptions can be divided into: Non-Modeling (re: Population, Sample) Modeling (re: Distribution, Structure, Cross-Variation)
nonparametric components
Assumes existence of idealized distribution for population from which the sample is drawn
Uses the known shape & parameters of that ideal distribution for the Inference
Its models are simpler than NPI Thus it is more convenient than NPI PI has been most commonly used Became subject of recent criticism*
(*) Nassim Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. 2nd Ed, 2010
Compared to PI:
o NPI is frequently less convenient, but always more robust o NPI has less power (larger sample size is required to draw conclusions with same degree of confidence) o NPI can be occasionally simpler than PI
NPI is seen by some as leaving less room for misuse & misunderstanding
CAVEAT: Term non-parametric has additional meanings in Statistics
e.g. denotes techniques that do not assume that the structure of a model is fixed.
a probability distribution that describes: the probabilities of the possible values - for a specific statistic
population distribution
SD is necessary for constructing confidence
a probability distribution that describes the probabilities of the possible values for the Mean
Consider a Normal Population
1.5
0.222
2.5
0.222
STANDART ERROR of a statistic: Standard Deviation () of the Sampling Distribution of that statistic
STANDARD ERROR OF THE MEAN: SD () of the Sampling Distribution of the Mean
SEM vs : SEM: estimate of how far the sample mean is likely to be to the population mean. It is an Inferential Statistic. SD: degree to which individuals within the sample differ from the sample mean. It is a descriptive statistic.
the difference between the expected value of an Estimator & the corresponding population parameter - it is designed to estimate
Standardized normal distribution, with an idealized Mean of 0 & Standard Deviation of 1. It allows to create a compact table for all normal distributions (widely used before computers became available) Score (raw score, datum): original datum (observation) that has not been transformed
Z- Score (Standard Score): number of standard deviations a score is from the mean of population
Positive Z-Score: a datum above the mean
probability distribution that is used to estimate normal population parameters when the sample size is small &/or when the population Standard Deviation is unknown Per CLT sampling distribution of a statistic will follow a normal distribution (ND), as long as the sample size is sufficiently large Thus, when we know the standard deviation (SD) of the population, we can compute a z-Score, and use ND to evaluate probabilities with the sample mean In reality, sample sizes are sometimes small, and SDs of the population are unknown When either of these occurs, we have to rely on the distribution of the t statistic (also known as the t score)
Indicates precision & accuracy of the Estimator Margin of Error: reflects Observational Error
(Measurement Error): the difference between a measured value of quantity & its true value
from the same population, & CI calculated for each sample, then a certain percentage (Confidence Level) of the intervals will include the unknown population parameter
CI are usually calculated so that this percentage
n
Small n
Large n
CIs are more informative than hypothesis tests: they provide a range of plausible values for the unknown parameter
CI are underrated and underused in research
explanation of findings
It uses the data to decide if Null Hypothesis
can be rejected
Null Hypothesis H0: there is no relationship
relationship between measured phenomena. This is typically the hypothesis of interest to the researcher
The decision in HT - may be correct or may be in error. There are two types of errors, depending on which of the hypotheses is actually true:
TYPE I error is rejecting the Null
probabilities of TIE
The rate of TIIE is called false negative rate ()
Significance testing involves calculating the probability - that a statistic would differ as much or more from the parameter specified in the H0 - as does the statistics obtained in the experiment
One-tailed probability: probability computed considering
differences in only one direction, such as the statistic is larger than the parameter
considering differences in both directions (statistic either larger or smaller than the parameter)
statistic as different or more different from the parameter specified in the H0 as the statistic obtained in experiment
The p value is computed assuming H0 is true
Final step: comparison of p value with Significance Level If the p < then H0 is rejected Rejecting H0 is not an all-or-none decision The lower the p value the more confidence that H0 is false
the probability that the test will reject H0 when H1 is true. the probability of not committing Type II Error Power of a Test = 1; ( is rate of TIIE)
SP (aka Sensitivity) is a function of the possible distributions, determined by a parameter, under the H1 As SP increases, the chances of TIIE decrease Power analysis can be used to calculate the minimum:
o sample size required to detect an effect of a given size
o effect size to be detected using a given sample size
SP is used to make comparisons between different statistical tests (e.g.: between a parametric and a nonparametric test of the same hypothesis)
In a research paper the focus is on the Results Statistical Tests are mentioned briefly in Materials & Methods This brief mention may indicate if the paper contains valid research or not.
Have the tests been properly chosen? Have the results been interpreted in
ANALYSIS
Compare means between 2 groups
PARAMETRIC Test
Two-sample
NONPARAMETRIC Test
Wilcoxon rank-sum test
Example
Is the mean systolic blood pressure (at baseline) for patients assigned to placebo different from the mean for patients assigned to the Tx group? Was there a significant change in systolic blood pressure between baseline and 6-month follow-up in the Tx group?
t-test
Paired
t-test
Analysis of variance
Kruskal-Wallis
ANOVA
Pearson coefficient of correlation
ANOVA
Spearmans rank correlation
If our experiment had 3 groups & we want to know whether the mean systolic blood pressure at baseline differed among them?
Source: Hoskin T. Parametric and Nonparametric: Demystifying the Terms. Mayo Clinics
TYPE
o o Parametric Evaluates if the means of two groups are statistically different from each other Especially appropriate for the posttest-only two-group randomized experimental design Population from which the sample is taken has normal distribution The variances of the populations to be compared are equal Examines the difference between means relative to variability of their scores
APPLICATION
CORRECT USE
o
ASSUMPTIONS
o o
PROCEDURE
o
FORMULA
o o o o t = signal to noise ratio Top part: difference between two means (signal) Bottom part is a measure of scores variability (noise) Calculated t is determined as significant or not by using tables
Trochim WV. The Research Methods Knowledge Base, 2nd Edition. 2006
TYPE
o Parametric & Non-parametric
APPLICATION
o Evaluates if the means of more than 2 groups are statistically different
ASSUMPTIONS:
o The expected values of the errors are zero o The variances of all errors are equal to each other o The errors are independent from one another & normally distributed
PROCEDURE
o The mean is calculated for each group o The overall mean is then calculated for all of the groups combined o Within each group, the total deviation of each individuals score from the group mean is calculated. This is called within group variation o Next, the deviation of each group mean from the overall mean is calculated. This is called between group variation o Finally: F statistic is calculated
FORMULA
o F statistic: the ratio of between group variation to within group variation o If the between group variation is significantly greater than the within group variation, it is likely that there is a statistically significant difference between the groups. The statistical software determines if the F statistic is significant or not .
graphical and numerical results & inferred conclusions from other steps of Data Analysis in an accurate and concise form
Specifically, it involves presentation of
Abstract (in the form of a Poster or Oral Presentation) followed by preparation & publication of the Manuscript
SSDC
IDM
EDA
DDA
PoC
As discussed previously:
There is no single best statistical manual Set of personalized references has to be assembled Electronic texts that contain hyperlinks or allow for
the instant Web Searches for terms are best suited for studying Statistics
Following suggestions are examples of texts taken from the large pool of study materials
Harvey Motulsky: Intuitive Biostatistics: A Nonmathematical Guide to Statistical Thinking, 3rd Ed, 2013
o Non-mathematical Approach to Statistics by a Physician-Statistician
Yosef Dlugacz: Measuring Health Care: Using Quality Data for Operational, Financial, and Clinical Improvement. 1st Ed, 2006
o Deals with application of Statistics in Medical Business
Yasar A. Ozcan: Quantitative Methods in Health Care Management: Techniques and Applications 1st Ed, 2009
o Deals with application of Statistics in Medical Business
Android
Statistics Quick Reference by Nuzzed 2013
iPhone/iPad
Learn Statistics by Miaoshuang Dong 2013 Statistics Video Lectures by Khan Academy 2013
Windows 8
Statistics Formulas by Hexxa 2013
Statistics and Probability by SimpleNEasy 2013
variables in epidemiologic research, and its discontents. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2012;12:21
Taleb N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable & On
Author wishes to thank: Stephen DeCherney, MD, MPH for his valuable comments.
Nothing to disclose: there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this presentation. Specifically, neither the author nor his family have any potential conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise regarding any of the discussed here products and/or services.
experimental and control groups are measured and compared after implementation of an intervention.
Comparisons are made only after the
intervention, since this design assumes that the two groups are equivalent other than the randomly assigned intervention.
Between-group differences are used to