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Modeling
Chapter 3: Modeling
Process
Pard Teekasap
Southern New Hampshire
University
Outline
1.Purpose of modeling
2.The client and the modeler
3.Steps of the modeling process
4.Modeling is iterative
5.Overview of the modeling process
Purpose of modeling
• Who are the most important people
in the safe operation of an aircraft?
• Designer OR Pilot
• Too many managers spend far too
much time acting as pilots rather
than creating an organizational
structure consistent with their
vision and values
Small or Big Problem
• Solutions to small problems yield
small rewards
• Focus your model on the important
issues, on the problems where your
work can have lasting benefit, on
the problems you care most deeply
about
Client and Modeler
• Clients = people you must influence
for your work to have impact
• Purpose is to help the clients solve
their problem. If the clients
perceive your model does not
address their concerns or lose
confidence in it, you’ll have little
impact
Clients are not always right
• Modelers have a responsibility to
require their clients to justify their
opinions, ground their views in
data, and consider new viewpoints
• When the clients ask for something
you think is unnecessary or
misguided, you must work with
them to resolve the issue
Steps of the modeling
process
1. Problem Articulation
(Boundary Selection)
5. Policy
2. Dynamic
Formulation
Hypothesis
& Evaluation
4. Testing 3. Formulation
Iterative with real world
Real
World
Decisions
Information
(Organizational
Feedback
Experiments) 1. Problem Articulation
(Boundary Selection)
5. Policy
2. Dynamic
Formulation
Hypothesis
& Evaluation
4. Testing 3. Formulation
Strategy, Mental
Structure, Models
Decision of Real
Rules World
Problem articulation
• What is the issue the clients are most
concerned with?
• What problem are they trying to
address?
• What is the real problem, not just the
symptom of difficulty?
• What is the purpose of the model?
Can I model the whole
world?
• Is it useful to have the map as
detailed as the territory?
• To be useful, model must address a
specific problem and simplify
• Usefulness of models lies in the fact
that they simplify reality, creating a
representation of it we can
comprehend
• The model should be simple enough
so the assumptions could be
examined
Methods for articulate the
problem
• References Modes
• Time Horizon
Reference Modes
• Set of graphs and other descriptive
data showing the development of
the problem over time
• You and the clients must identify the
time horizon and define variables
and concepts you consider to be
important for understanding the
problem and designing policies to
solve it
Time Horizon
• How long should I collect the data?
• It should far enough back in history
to show how the problem emerged
and describe its symptom
• How far should I simulate to?
• It should far enough into the future to
capture the delayed and indirect
effects of potential policies
US Energy market is stable
18
Consumption
Million Barrels/Day
12 Imports
6 Alaska
Production,
Lower 48 States
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
30
25
20
1990 $/bbl
15
10
0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
Are you sure it is stable?
18
Consumption
Million Barrels/Day
12 Imports
Alaska
6
Production,
Lower 48 States
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
50
40
1990 $/bbl
30
20
10
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Or it is stable?
Fossil Energy Production