Problem Solving and Decision Making

Problem solving involves making a series of decisions:

deciding that something is wrong, deciding what the problem is, and

deciding how to solve it.

Successful problem solving depends on good decisions.

Decision: A choice from among available alternatives.

Much of the supervisors job is making decisions.

In many cases, decisions are made without giving any thought to the process of deciding.

Supervisors will automatically decide something

because it feels right or because a decision has been made on a similar issue in the past.

Decision making can be improved by understanding how the decision-making process works in theory and in practice.

Rational Model

The rational model of decision making includes:

a. identify the problem b. identify the alternative solutions c. gather and organize the facts d. evaluate the alternatives e. select and implement the best alternative

f. get feedback and take corrective action.

The importance of understanding and using a model is that the decision will be the result of facts and analysis rather than of opinions and feelings.

Identification of the real problem is extremely important. If the wrong cause and solution for that cause is selected, the problem will still be there. Deming says that most problems are unknown or unknowable.

There are two basic types of problems:

simple, or acute and long-standing, or chronic, problems.

Simple problems occur suddenly, and the cause of the problem may be obvious.

An example is when the electricity goes off because a fuse is blown.

The chronic, or recurring, problem is usually more complex, and it is difficult to determine the causes and solutions.

This type of problem can benefit from the conscious use of a problem-solving or decision-making model.

Bounded rationality

Choosing an alternative that meets minimum standards of acceptability.

Solutions that meet minimum standards will likely result in a return of the problem, since there is no margin of safety that will allow for slight changes and desirable outcomes.

Recency Syndrome

The tendency to most easily remember events that have occurred recently.

To test this concept, try to remember what happened yesterday. Now try to remember eight or ten days ago with the same kind of detail.

Stereotyping

Rigid opinions about categories of people.

Supervisors often have neither the time nor the desire to follow all these steps to make a good decision.

They may have trouble thinking of all the alternatives or gathering all the facts they need.

Compromises

Given the human and organizational limitations, supervisors tend to make compromises most of the time. If the supervisor is aware of the kinds of compromises people make, he or she is more likely to be aware when using them. Some kinds of compromises are useful in some situations, others are to be avoided as much as possible.

Reasons for compromises

Sitnplicity.

Usually what we do is think over our experiences and consider some of the ways similar problems have been handled in the past.

The downside of this approach is that it tends to bypass new and innovative solutions that may deliver better results.

Bounded rationality

When it seems impossible or unreasonable to find the best alternative in the universe, decision makers settle for an alternative they consider enough .

The process is also known as bounded rationality, that is, the decision maker places limits, or bounds, on the rational model of decision making. The decision maker considers alternatives only until he or she finds one that meets his or her minimum criteria acceptability.

Subjective rationality

This considers alternatives that are the result of intuition and instincts, rather than impartial data.

Even when the process for arriving at the decision otherwise rational, the numbers used in the process may be subjective. As a result, they may be less than completely accurate.

Rationalization

People tend to favor solutions that they believe they can justify to others.

Personal perspective

People may assume that everyone sees things the way they do.

They think if something is clear to them it is also clear to everyone else. Decision makers must find out what other people are thinking and take those views into account.

Stereotyping

Rigid opinions about categories of people distort the truth that people offer a rich variety of individual strengths and viewpoints.

The cure for stereotyping is not to assume that everyone is alike. The supervisor should be aware of what his or her stereotypes about people and situations are. In making a decision, the supervisor should consider whether those stereotypes truly describe the situation at hand.

Consider the Consequences

When the consequences of a decision are great, the supervisor should spend more time on the decision.

He or she should try to follow the rational model of decision making, collecting information and including as many alternatives as possible.

When the consequences are slight, the supervisor should limit the time and money spent in identifying and evaluating alternatives.

Respond quickly in a crisis

In a crisis, the supervisor should quickly select the course of action that seems best

This is an application of satisficing.

Rather than waiting to evaluate other alternatives, the supervisor should begin implementing the solution and interpreting feedback to see whether the solution is working.

Supervisors should be careful in identifying crisis situations.

Sometimes it is easy to define more and more situations as a crisis or pseudo crisis using crisis decision-making methods.

Inform the manager

The supervisors boss doesnt want to hear about every minor decision, but the boss does need to know what is happening in the department.

The supervisor should inform the boss about major decisions.

These would include decisions affecting

the department, meeting objectives, responses to crises, and any decision that might be controversial.

When the boss needs to know about a decision, its usually smart to discuss the problem before reaching and announcing the decision.

The boss may have some input to the decision-making process that may modify the supervisors decision. In a crisis, the supervisor may not have time to consult with his or her boss and has to settle for discussing the decision as soon as possible afterward.

Be decisive yet flexible

Sometimes it is difficult to say which alternative solution is best.

Perhaps none of the choices looks good enough.

In this case, it may be difficult to move beyond studying the alternatives to selection and implementation.

However, avoiding a decision is just another way to decide to do nothing.

Being decisive means reaching a decision within a reasonable amount of time.

The supervisor should pick the best alternative or at least an acceptable one, and then focus on implementing it.

A decisive supervisor clears his or her desk of routine matters when a problem arises.

The supervisor

refers the question or problem to the proper people, delegates appropriately, and keeps work moving.

He or she takes complete responsibility for getting the facts needed.

A decisive supervisor keeps his or her employees informed of what they are expected to do and how they are progressing relative to their objectives. Being decisive should not mean that a supervisor is blind to signs of a mistake. If the feedback indicates the solution is not working, the supervisor must be flexible and try another approach

Avoid decision-making traps

Avoid making a major issue out of each decision.

Good planning can avert many crises, and life-anddeath issues are not the usual stuff of the supervisors job. Put each issue into perspective so that alternatives can be evaluated and an appropriate amount of time can be devoted to finding the solution.

Avoid inappropriate responses to failure.

Acknowledge mistakes, but do not dwell and agonize over them.

It is more important to learn whatever lesson the mistake can teach, and then move on.

Remember information.

to

draw

on

easily

available

Have some of the alternatives been tried before? If so, what was the outcome? Also consult with other members of the organization or with outside experts.

Beware of promising too much.

Dont make promises you cant keep to your employees or your boss.

Decision Tree

A graph that helps in decision making by showing the value of expected outcomes of decisions under varying circumstances. Decision trees can be used to present a variety of conditions to help familiarize others who are involved in the decision-making process.