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Japans Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Negotiating Rice

Lisa Jrke

IRRI Division Seminar, 11 April 2014

How are international trade negotiations and farmers livelihoods connected?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership


Brunei Chile New Zealand Singapore United States Australia Peru Vietnam Malaysia Mexico Canada Japan

Two-level (Robert D.in Putnam 1988) Rice games production Japan


Gentan system of acreage control Producer price support

High import tariffs (778% for rice)


High consumer prices

Rice production in Japan


Overaged farmers Low farming incomes Many part-time farmers High land fragmentation
Land ownership in hectares, 2010

<0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-2.0 ha >2.0

How did Japan join the TPP?

Two-level games (Putnam 1988)


Negotiation processes taking place on two levels: I International (negotiators) II Domestic (President, political parties, business, interest groups, public)

An agreement on level I must be ratified on level II.

Level I: International trade dynamics


International trade rounds pushing for more liberalisation in agriculture (Uruguay and Doha rounds of the GATT/WTO) Overall regional liberalisation and high-level trade agreements (KORUS, etc.) Rise of China and other economic powers in the region Pressure from the US and Mexico (beef and citrus), as well as from Australia (dairy)

Why did Japan politics join the in TPP? Level II: Domestic Japan
Voting system tilted towards rural votes farmer support from all parties Influential agricultural cooperatives (JA)

Special interest politicians


But also strong business elite, powerful METI

Volatile public
Historically weak Prime Minister

How did Japan join the TPP?


Why did Japan not join earlier?
November 2010 First statement by Naoto Kan about preliminary consultations with TPP member states Renewed confirmation to hold consultations by Yoshihiko Noda Final announcement of Japans participation in the TPP by Shinz Abe

November 2011

March 2013

Domestic dynamics
Naoto Kan
Strong resistance within the DPJ and from the opposition Unpopular after announcing a tax reform and 3/11

Yoshihiko Noda
Sealed his political fate with the tax reform

Domestic dynamics

Shinz Abe
Very stable minority in the Diet
High popularity with Abenomics policy Less dependence on farmers votes

Foreign pressure (gaiatsu)


Lost Decades Low FTA coverage Fear to fall behind economically compared to other economies in the region Proactive Asia policy by US President Obama

So what makes conclusions the difference? Preliminary


Political system Other policy issues Role of public support Issue linkage Foreign pressure

What does it mean for rice farmers?


Japanese agriculture needs to be modernised with or without the TPP The TPP may necessitate agricultural reform as existing policies protecting farmers will have to be changed But liberalisation does not automatically entail reform

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