89.

62

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily

This move down from 89.62 seems near a conclusion. The whole pattern is best counted as a “Triple”
b of some kind. It has simply channeled “too perfectly” at various stages to be realistically considered an
“impulsive” move of any kind. There is a good chance that we see more sideways consolidation before
rallying, but a major bottom seems imminent in the U.S. Dollar.

Longer term traders/investors should wait for a break of

the 77.47 to 78.27 resistance zone to prove that a major
bottom is in place.
a
“x”

The first “abc” channeled perfectly. Such b

perfection almost always leads to an x-
wave development. “x” 77.47  78.27
c
“w” b
a

Look how well the next waves c

channeled. It’s almost a certainty this
another move involving an x-wave. “y”
a “z”
DXY seems to be having c (C)
problems making it to the
bottom of the channel. A sign
of waning downside
momentum?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (DXY) 120 min.
“x” The Dollar Index is finding support in the 78.6% of a = c target. The move lower resembles a complete five wave
decline. There’s a very real risk that the DXY is in the process of putting in a bottom. A break above 75.28 would signal
a bigger bounce coming. The bearish case is that that the move from 76.82  74.77 is just the first wave down in the c-
wave. In which case the market should not be able to better 76.04. Therefore, a break of 76.04 would be a medium
term bullish signal--at that point the break of 74.94 will resemble a “bear trap.”

b
76.82

-2-
76.04

-1- -4-?
75.28

74.94 -3-
a 74.77
-5-?
c of “z”?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily -C-
(B)
-A- 89.62 Because the development down from 89.62 looks more like a
(Z) correction than an impulse, I’m left with this count as my preferred
88.46 model: the Primary -B- Wave will become a big Triangle of some
(Y) sort.

(D)

(X)

(W)

77.69 (E)
(A) -B-
(X)
74.77
(C)
Targets: alt: - B -
74.75 for 138.2% of ( A ) = ( C )
72.19 for 161.8% of ( A ) = ( C )

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index Futures - Daily

There are other ways to count this move as a five decline that completes a
larger c-wave. However, the shape of the decline from 89.7175.09 looks
more “corrective” than “impulsive.” So, I continue to count out the move as a
“complex correction. It’s possible for there to be more sideways/lower price
action on this model. What would constitute a major breakout? There is clear
resistance at 77.74. Above this level, the 23.6% retrace, which we have been
waiting on for a few months now, is at 78.537. Breaking above these levels
would be considered a “breakout.”

REPRINT 10/28/09

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index - Daily Chart
“b”
89.71
(A)
REPRINT 9/8/09
-b-

-a-
x

-b-

“a” -c-
w
77.52
-a-

-c-
In order to be thorough with the technical process, it’s important to understand other bigger picture
possibilities. This market is congesting near the lows which is normally a bearish signal. Also, the y
downtrend line remains intact, which is not a good sign. So, we must consider the possibility that this “c”
wave is NOT a five wave move lower, and is in fact a complex correction of some kind. Here we model the
“double” which is an abc-x-abc structure. This outcome targets various levels between 71 and 75. This
possibility is yet another reason shorter term bulls should wait until the pattern “clears” 

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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