Geopolitics

-What is geopolitics?
-What is it used for?
-Who needs it?
RUSSIA- MISTERY WRAPPED IN
RIDDLE
Russia is locked into a permanent regional
security dilemma
Instability along its borders has led to policies
that aim to protect the center from local
security problems
Russia's defining characteristic is its
indefensibility( Stratfor)
Indefendable Russia
Core Russia is limited to the region of the
medieval Grand Principality of Muscovy
It counts no rivers, oceans, swamps or
mountains marking its borders -- it relies solely
on the relatively inhospitable climate and its
forests for defense
Russian history is a chronicle of the agony of
surviving invasion after invasion.


Two directions
Traditionally these invasions have come from
two directions
The first is from the steppes -- wide open
grasslands that connect Russia to Central Asia
and beyond -- the path that the Mongols used.
The second is from the North European Plain,
which brought to Russia everything from the
Teutonic Knights to the Nazi war machine.

How to deal with invasions?
Expansions
To deal with these vulnerabilities, Russia
expanded in three phases
In the first, Russia expanded not toward the
invasion corridors to establish buffers but away
from them to establish a redoubt
the bulk of Russia's expansion during that
period was north to the Arctic and northeast to
the Urals
Using territory
Very little of this territory can be categorized as
useful -- most was taiga or actual tundra and
only lightly populated
But for Russia it was the only land easily up for
grabs

Second phase
The second phase of expansion was far more
aggressive -- and risky
. In the mid-16th century, Under Ivan IV, Russia
finally moved to seal off the Mongol invasion
route.
Russia pushed south and east, deep into the
steppes, and did not stop until it hit the Urals in
the east and the Caspian Sea and Caucasus
Mountains in the south.
Building an Empire
Also with this expansion, Ivan IV was
transformed from Grand Prince of Moscow to
Tsar of All Russia, suggesting the empire to
come.
Russia had finally achieved a measure of
conventional security
The third expansion phase dealt with the final
invasion route: from the west. In the 18th
century, under Peter and Catherine the Great,
Russian power pushed westward, conquering
Ukraine to the southwest and pushing on to the
Carpathian Mountains.
Strategic locations
Russia captured several strategically critical
locations, including Astrakhan on the Caspian,
the land of the Tatars -- a longtime horse-
mounted foe -- and Grozny, which was soon
transformed into a military outpost at the foot
of the Caucasus.
Still Russia did not achieve any truly defensible
borders
Switching problems
Expansions to the Baltic and Black Seas did end
the external threat from the Cossacks and Balts
of ages past
price of turning those external threats into
internal ones
Population problem
Today s Russia is dealing with the fact that
Russians are barely a majority in their own
country
Empty land
The empire was (and remains) lightly settled.
Even today, vast areas of Russia are
unpopulated, while in the rest of the country
the population is widely distributed in small
towns and cities and far less concentrated in
large urban areas
Russia's European part is the most densely
populated, but in its expansion Russia both
resettled Russian ethnics and assimilated large
minorities along the way
Stalin's strategy
Population distribution also creates a political
problem
Joseph Stalin certainly did in his efforts to forge
and support an urban, industrialized population
Force- feeding such economic hardship to
conquered minorities only doubled the need for
a tightly controlled security apparatus.

Therefore, to remain united it had to have a
centralized bureaucracy responsive to autocratic
rule in the capital and a vast security apparatus
Russia's history is one of controlling the
inherently powerful centrifugal forces tearing at
the country's fabric
Security
Russia, then, has two core geopolitical
problems;
The first is holding the empire together
But the creation of that empire poses the
second problem, maintaining internal security. It
must hold together the empire and defend it at
the same time, and the achievement of one goal
tends to undermine efforts to achieve the other.

Geopolitical Imperatives

Expand north and east to secure a redoubt in
climatically hostile territory that is protected in
part by the Urals
Expand south to the Caucasus and southeast
into the steppes in order to hamper invasions of
Asian origin. As circumstances allow, push as
deeply into Central Asia and Siberia as possible
to deepen this bulwark.
Expand as far west as possible. Do not stop in
the southwest until the Carpathians are
reached. On the North European Plain do not
stop ever. Deeper penetration increases security
not just in terms of buffers; the North European
Plain narrows the further west one travels
making its defense easier.
Manage the empire with terror. Since the vast
majority of Russian territory is not actually
Russian, a very firm hand is required to prevent
myriad minorities from asserting regional
control or aligning with hostile forces.
Expand to warm water ports that have open-
ocean access so that the empire can begin to
counter the economic problems that a purely
land empire suffers.





Strategy of the Russian Empire

The modern Russian empire faces three
separate border regions: Asian Siberia, Central
Asia and the Caucasus (now mostly independent
states), and Western Europe.
Siberia-There is only one rail line connecting
Siberia to the rest of the empire, and positioning
a military force there is difficult if not impossible
Central Asia. The mature Russian Empire and
the Soviet Union were anchored on a series of
linked mountain ranges, deserts and bodies of
water in this region that gave it a superb
defensive position
Western frontier that ran from west of Odessa
north to the Baltic-the vulnerable point

Russia s three strategic options
Use Russia's geographical depth and climate to
suck in an enemy force and then defeat it, as it
did with Napoleon and Hitler.
It is interesting to speculate what would have
happened in 1942 if Hitler had resumed his
drive on the North European Plain toward
Moscow, rather than shift to a southern attack
toward Stalingrad.
Face an attacking force with large, immobile
infantry forces at the frontier and bleed them to
death, as they tried to do in 1914.
Contemporary Russia

The greatest extension of the Russian Empire
occurred under the Soviets from 1945 to 1989
Paradoxically, this expansion preceded the
collapse of the Soviet Union and the contraction
of Russia to its current borders
It has lost its western buffers in Ukraine and the
Baltics and its strong foothold in the Caucasus
and in Central Asia.

Causes of the Soviet collapse
Overextending forces into Central Europe,
which taxed the ability of the Soviet Union to
control the region while economically exploiting
it.
It became a net loss
This in turn forced the Russians into a massive
military buildup that undermined its economy
with the lack of ocean access made Soviet (and
Russian) maritime trade impossible
Entering an arms race with much richer
countries it could compete against only by
diverting resources from the civilian economy --
material and intellectual
The best minds went into the military-industrial
complex, causing the administrative and
economic structure of Russia to crumble.
Russians had two strategic
interests
Most immediate was to secure their western
borders by absorbing Lithuania and anchoring
Russia, as far west on the North European Plain
as possible
Second strategic interest was to secure Russia's
southeastern frontier against potential threats
from the steppes by absorbing Central Asia as
well as Ukraine.
West
Russia's loss of Ukraine and Moldova allows
both the intrusion of other powers and the
potential rise of a Ukrainian rival on its very
doorstep. Powers behind the Carpathians are
especially positioned to take advantage of this
political geography.
The Baltic states have re-established their
independence, and all three are east and north
of the Baltic-Carpathian line (the final defensive
line on the North European Plain). Their
presence in a hostile alliance is unacceptable.
Neither is an independent or even neutral
Belarus (also on the wrong side of that line).


Russia must dominate the Eurasian heartland
When it does, it must want more
The more it wants the more it must face its
internal economic weakness and social
instability, which cannot support its ambitions
It has everything to do with geography, which
in turn generates ideologies and shapes
character

Ukraine, western neighborhood
Moscow's game
Moscows demonstrative trade sanctions
against Ukraine
warm meeting between the presidents of
Russia and Azerbaijan
Kremlin is continuing to play hardball.
Eastern Partnership Summit draws near
Counter action
Russia s declared priority is to strengthen the
Customs Union and create a Eurasian Economic
Union on its basis.
This is the aim of its foreign and economic
policies, and all the former Soviet Union
countries are invited to join
Warnings
Ukraine has been told how much it would lose
if it signs an enlarged agreement on a free trade
zone with the EU
Armenia has been warned that even its close
ties would not be immune if a document on
association with the EU were signed
New era
The days when the U.S. sought to be the leader
and to be present everywhere seem to have
gone
Priorities will have to be chosen
Ukraine and Georgia will loom as large on
Washingtons agenda as they did 57 years
ago=hard to imagine
Interest in Central Asia has its limits, especially
after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Only focus is energy

Definition
Modern scientific discipline of the political
sciences- explores 3 factors; space , power and
population.
Geopolitical positioning is one of the most
important geopolitical categories
Geopolitics bad connotation in the past: used
to serve as an excuse for territorial an military
actions.

Modern circumstances
Space, power , inhabitants are politically
organized
Space - STATE
Power GOVERNMENT
Inhabitants- NATION
Points of geopolitical positioning
1. geographical factors
2. global political structures
3. membership in political and military alliances
4. inside political structure
5. political surroundings
6. democracy
7. Economic strength


Modern geopolitics(critical
geopolitics)
Don t care about geography
Don t care about military power
CARES about political stability around the
country
CARES about political system inside the
country, state of democracy
CARES about economy
CARES about foreign policy
Cohen, Brzezinski and others
End of bipolar world
Difference between Gateways and shatterbelts
depends on the degree of internal stability that
the region has achieved or which it is able to
maintain in the face of internal and external
ideological and economic forces.
The Real World
USA
EUROPE
JAPAN
???
???
???
20 th century; the birth of hope
Optimism on the horizon
World order was firm; Austro-ugarian empire
example of modesty and ethnical harmony
Baggiest Metropolis s- London, Paris, Wiena ,
Sankt Petersburg are centre of the industrial
revolution
Art, innovation, architecture, science
Democracy, social democracy first shapes
The age of Reason
What really happened????
The bloodiest century in the history
Hatred
Mass murderess
Mega dying
Two world wars, totalitarian civil casualties
Around 87 million people died

Why?
Literacy
Industrial revolution
Political awareness
Nationalism ; nation state principle
Nationalism Marxism- demagogic political
style
They all failed- lack of moral ground


USA- the world leader

The global the role of the USA

US leads the democratic world- US is the only
leader
4 elements of the US as a global power
1. global military power
2. global economic influence
3. global cultural ideological power
4. political power
5. Self confidence ( big powers since ancient
Rome )
What is going on inside the country?
Brzezinski : permissive wealth- continuation
of the lack of morality
Greed overcomes care
New values soap operas "Dallas Dynasty


Rise of the US
Collapse of the sovereign nation states in
Europe
Globalism and international interdependence
US is a small global society
Everybody wants to copy US
Democracy
Human rights record
Media freedom


Golden days
National sovereignty national security
Military superiority
We won the war
We don t need anyone
Europe is weak


World is changing
United Nations 1945.
Need for multilateral action
You cannot be a leader and the isolationist at
the same time
End of era of Untouchable US
Cuban crisis 1950. =technology rules
Result US has to have partners
Bipolar world
World of two blocs
West and East
NATO and Warsaw pact
US has secured the global leadership in the
western world of democracies
USSR and satellites promote communism
Democratic system of the West is attractive-
freedom and economic growth, universal rights
Use of military power still accepted
Emphasis on moral ground /Brzezinski/
Problems in paradise, End of cold
war
New strategic challenges
How to handle Japan ?
What to do with Europe? EU integration
process
Middle East
China
Africa
Does Everybody like America?
Power
How to use power?
Economic power is not necessarily political
power
Will everybody like American power even if it is
used for good purposes ?
Global leadership or global dominance?
What it really takes to become a global leader?
Basis for international interventionism


Fortress Europe
Potential to be stronger than the US
No 1. in trade
Competitive technology
Natural resources
Only 5 percent of child poverty/US 22 percent/
Better social and healthcare system
Rich in culture, philosophy , sense of
universalism
inadequate political and military integration
Economic giant and political dwarf
What does the US really want from Europe?

The European union
An economic and political union
The EU operates through a system of
supranational independent institutions and
intergovernmental negotiated decisions by the
member states
Institutions of the EU the European
Commission, the Council of the European Union,
the European Council, the Court of Justice of the
European Union, the European Central Bank, the
Court of Auditors, and the European Parliament.
The European Parliament is elected every five
years by EU citizens. The EU's de facto capital is
Brussels.
Single market through a standardized system of
laws that apply in all member states
How big is the EU?
Population of over 500
million inhabitants, or
7.3% of the world
population

The EU, in 2011,
generated the largest
nominal world gross
domestic product
(GDP) of, representing
approximately 21% of
the global17.9 billiards
GDP
In the process of
deepening the
integration to banking
union, fiscal union,
true political union.

Can it be done? When
?



How does it really work ?
Within the Schengen Area passport
controls have been abolished

EU policies aim to ensure the free
movement of people, goods, services,
and capital, enact legislation in justice
and home affairs, and maintain
common policies on trade, agriculture,
fisheries and regional development.

A monetary union, the eurozone, was
established in 1999 and is composed
of 20 member states.
Through the Common Foreign and
Security Policy the EU has developed a
role in external relations and defence.

Permanent diplomatic missions have
been established around the world.
The EU is represented at the United
Nations, the WTO, the G8 and the G-
20.


Challenging times
Nothing is going to be as it used to
be
September 11.2001





























Terrorist attack
USA is being attacked at its own territory
NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES
Enemy is no longer visible as it used to be
NATO evoked article V.
Public sympathy and outrage
Was it enough ?








How did Bush administration
respond?
War on terror
War on terror / what s the enemy s name?
terrorism is just a technique
Axis of evil : good and bad theory , theological
approach
Who is not with us is against us Marx
Black and white approach
Preemptive attacks
Rough states Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Syria
Not interconnected, each country case of its
own

Problem no.2
Global Economic crisis
If US sneezes the rest of the
world gets flu
Financial crisis led to global
economic crisis
death 4 billiards USD
budget deficit 500 billions
USD
Low industrial competition
Low production growth
Health care system
Global crisis hits global powers

US problems
Financial crisis led to global
economic crisis
death 4 billiards USD
budget deficit 500 billions
Low industrial competition
Low production growth
Health care system
High cost of wars

EU problems
Dependence on trade with
US
Low levels of industrial
production
High cost of labor
Ageing population
Crisis of joint institutions
Crisis of leaders
Lack of political integration