GLOBAL TELECOM UPDATE - 2013

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GLOBAL TELECOM UPDATE 2013 1
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2012 was an eventful year for telecommunication industry. In 2013 key
challenges for telecom companies will be how to monetize new business
models, leverage customer data by investing in analytics and define their
response to over-the-top players.

Wholesale carriers will continue to face declining revenues and margins as a
result of domestic regulation and intense competition.
Source : rcrwireless.com
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1. Mobile connections growth, which will slow to 7% in 2013. with emerging
markets accounting for 89% of net additions.
2. Mobile broadband connections will grow by a more respectable 27% and
LTE connections will increase by 150%. Fiber connections will grow by 28%.
3. The LTE-to-HSPA rollout ratio will continue to shift in favor of LTE.
4. Wholesale carriers will continue to face declining revenues and margins as
a result of domestic regulation and intense competition.
5. Operators will take a new approach to M2M, with more partnering to
deliver services
6. Ericsson will be the most successful traditional network infrastructure
vendor due to its mobile radio access network and core portfolio, as well
as its growing software and services offerings
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7. All vendors will have to deal with the encroachment of software
providers in core telecoms software stacks

8. Laser for 100G will be the largest growth segment in the components
sector in 2013

9. Companies that are integrating devices and services (such as Microsoft,
Apple and Samsung) will be in the strongest position to capitalize on
growth in the devices market.

10. Android OS and Samsung will pull further ahead in the platform and
device markets respectively in 2013.
Source : rcrwireless.com
RECENT FINDOUTS --- Gartner and Ovum 4
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11. The global telecom services market will continue to be the largest IT
spending market in 2013 according to Gartner.
12. By 2016, Gartner forecasts that mobile data will represent 33% of the
total telecom services market, up from 22% in 2012 due to total
worldwide IT spending which is expected to reach $3.7 trillion (2.8
trillion) in 2013, a 4.2% increase from 2012 spending.
13. Ovum Research believes that mobile broadband presents the largest
opportunity for operators to grow revenue, and is expected to grow
19.2 per cent annually, generating $122.9bn in incremental revenue
between 2013 and 2016.
14. Ovum recommended that vendors step up their focus in areas such
as converged packet optical, ROADMs, 40G/100G networking gear,
carrier Wi-Fi, and network-related services.
Source : telecoms.com
RECENT FINDOUTS Pyramid Research 5
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15. Pyramid Research expected that Emerging countries like Africa and the
Middle East, will be intensified by M&A activity in2013 as smaller
operators will find it increasingly hard to compete and raise funds

16. Data card and dongle revenue will overtake SMS revenue for the first
time in 2013, generating $7.6bn and contributing about 32 per cent of
total mobile data sales

17. In Asia-Pacific, LTE subscription to reach nearly 42m, which whilst only 1
per cent of total subscriptions in the region, it is more than one-third of
global LTE subscriptions.
Source : telecoms.com
18. Pyramid also predicts that Android phones will account for more than
50 per cent of all Smartphone sales in Central & Eastern Europe and
close to half of all market sales in Western Europe in 2013.

19. In North America, the US is predicted to add nearly as many prepaid
customers as postpaid, and then overtake postpaid in 2014 due to
slower economic growth in the US market.

20. In Latin America, the story shifts to DTH Pay-TV growth, with direct to
home services set to overtake traditional cable TV numbers by 2017.
However, legal restrictions will continue to hamper IPTV growth.
RECENT FINDOUTS Pyramid Research 6
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Source : telecoms.com
21. 2012 represented a milestone for the Brazilian mobile market. Mobile
telephony reached density of more than 130 lines per 100 inhabitants
and the country is likely to have, for the first time, annual growth in
excess of 10%

22. The migration of GSM handsets, which still represents more than 70%
of mobile lines in the country, for 3G will also accelerate in 2013,
though 3G handsets are not likely to overtake GSM devices until 2015.

23. Virgin Mobile is set to begin its mobile virtual network operator service,
which could then entice others to enter the market and helping to
establish the MVNO market inside Brazil.
RECENT FINDOUTS Brazil Market (I) 7
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24. Fixed broadband will continue to grow at an annual rate of 20%. Pay-TV,
which increased 27% in 2012, due to DTH, is likely to keep this growth
pace in 2013, with bigger growth expected of cable TV and IPTV.

25. Brazil presents a consolidated scenario of players in the telecom space
with three groups (Telefnica, Amrica Mvil and Oi) controlling 70% of
the total revenues for the sector
RECENT FINDOUTS Brazil Market (II) 8
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Source : rcrwireless.com
26. Despite the economic downturn, intense competition, and regulatory
actions, revenues for the European wholesale telecoms market
remained steady between 2010 and 2011 (Ovum)

27. Wholesalers must lessen their dependence on traditional wholesale
fixed voice sales by meeting customers needs for non-voice services

28. Mobile wholesale, a growing sector in Europe, offers significant
potential for growth based on an increasingly diverse customer base

29. Ovum found that a number of carriers, including Telecom Italia and
Frances SFR, did increase their revenues from other sectors to more
than compensate for declines in fixed voice

30. In 2011 Europes top four: BT, Deutsche Telekom, FT-Orange and
Telefonica, accounted for over 50 per cent of total European wholesale
revenue, with the top ten responsible for nearly 75 per cent of the
total.
RECENT FINDOUTS Europe Market (I) 9
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30. In 2011 Europes top four: BT, Deutsche Telekom, FT-Orange and
Telefonica, accounted for over 50 per cent of total European wholesale
revenue, with the top ten responsible for nearly 75 per cent of the total.

31. AT&T is mulling over buying a wireless operator in Europe by the end of
2013.

32. European regulations are stifling innovation within the telecom industry
and preventing its growth said Ben Verwaayen, CEO of Paris-based
telecom equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent

33. 28 regulators in Europe had created rules focused on lowering prices for
customers, whereas in the U.S. And other regions regulators had also
focused on spurring innovation and new investments.

34. In 2011 Europes top four: BT, Deutsche Telekom, FT-Orange and
Telefonica, accounted for over 50 per cent of total European wholesale
revenue, with the top ten responsible for nearly 75 per cent of the total.
RECENT FINDOUTS Europe Market (II) 10
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34. Europe's top telecommunication companies are discussing the creation of
a pan-European infrastructure network to unite the region's disjointed
national markets

35. Putting together a pan-European network would end up with a huge
amount of logistical and financial difficulties but it would move Europe
more in line with the likes of the US and China.

36. Fitch Ratings, prophesizes that there is a slim chance for the talks to
succeed between European commission and Telecom operators . Fitch
believes network sharing within individual countries will remain a more
common method of cutting costs and defending margins.

RECENT FINDOUTS Europe Market (III) 11
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37. Russian Telecom market expected to grow 3.5% CAGR 2012 2015, mainly
driven by Mobile Data.

38. Mobile Data to Grow in Russia with 30% CAGR
RECENT FINDOUTS Russia (I) 12
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39. MTS a leading Russian mobile operator, and its main shareholder, AFK
Sistema continues to suffer losses. MTS effectively lost its asset in
Uzbekistan.

40. Also India a South Asian country, revoked all telecom licenses and
suggested that Sistema pay India 12 times the amount the Russian
company originally invested there in 2008.

41. Tenders for 800MHz / 2.5GHz frequencies to be used for LTE-based
telecommunications, orchestrated by Megafon, Vimpelcom, MTS and
Rostelecom.
RECENT FINDOUTS Russia (II) 13
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42. The telecom sector has recorded gross revenue at INR 52,937.32 crore
(roughly USD 98 billion) during the quarter ended September 2012, an
increase of 0.80% over the previous quarter at Rs 52,512.10 crore.

43. Adjusted gross revenue declined by 0.07% to Rs 35,473.16 crore during
the September quarter from Rs 35,499.01 crore reported during the
quarter ended June 2012.

44. The governments earning from the telecom sector in terms of license fee
also dipped 1.97% to Rs 2,884.16 crore during the July-September quarter,
as against Rs 2,941.02 crore earned during the April-June quarter this
fiscal year.

RECENT FINDOUTS India (I) 14
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45. However, operators gross revenue (excluding revenues of ILD, NLD and
ISPs, VSAT) declined by 0.61% during the quarter ended September 2012
to Rs 39661.37 crore.

46. The average revenue per user (ARPU) for GSM service dipped 0.45% to Rs
95.05 in July-September 2012 quarter from Rs 95.47 in April-June 2012
quarter. ARPU for CDMA service increased by 3.80% from Rs 74.91 in
quarter ended June to Rs 77.76 during the quarter ended September
2012.

47. The tremors of official auditor CAG's last year estimation of Rs 1.76 Lakh
crore presumptive revenue loss to the government in the allocation of 2G
spectrum continued to be felt in 2012 with Supreme Court cancelling as
many as 122 telecom licenses in February.
RECENT FINDOUTS India (II) 15
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48. LTE Revenues In India To Reach $11.88Bn In 2017

49. LTE revenues in India, UAE and Saudi Arabia are set to reach $11.88
billion, $4.55 billion and $3.38 billion.

50. In last four years, the sector grew by 20% CAGR and the mobile subscriber
base crossed 900 million, second only to China

51. Telecom contributes approximately 3% to Indias GDP

52. The country is completely dependent on the instant voice and data
communication provided by the telecom networks; this dependency is
irreversible.
RECENT FINDOUTS India (III) 16
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53. NTP (National Telecom Policy) plans to connect 250,000 Indian villages by
optical fiber network. This will translate into demand for an additional
400,000 base stations and 50,000 towers with average tenancy of 2.3 at
an investment of Rs.50,000 Crore. In effect, the NTP is visualizing doubling
the current telecom capacity and increasing its reach to 95+% of India
while providing broadband level of internet capability.
54. In FY 09-10, telecom attracted USD 2.5bn FDI (10% of total FDI); however
in the last seven months, Indian telecom received a meager USD 48mn FDI
(0.32% of total FDI)
55. The tower infrastructure industry, which has fuelled Indian telecom
growth by investing over Rs. 100,000 Cr in the last 15 years.
56. Under the proposed unified licensing regime, additional license fees
of 8% will be imposed and the FDI limit be reduced from 100% to 74%
RECENT FINDOUTS India (IV) 17
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Source : thehindubusinessline.com
57. The total IT investment in China's telecom industry was RMB 42.74 billion
in 2011, and the telecom industry IT solution market totaled RMB 13.71
billion. IDC forecasts the latter will climb to RMB 25.21 billion by 2016
58. 3G penetration rate in China was just 20.0% of the total mobile subscriber
base, which reflects significant growth opportunity
59. Mobile user base in China is ever increasing by November 2012, China
Mobile had 82.43 million 3G users, followed by China Unicom's 73.32
million and China Telecom's 65.85 million.
60. Chinese MVNO market could be worth more than 70 billion RMB ($11
Billion) in 2015.
61. Chinese Telecom companies Huawei and ZTE focusing on building strong
credibility among industry stakeholders, outside China.
62. Besides America, India, Australia, Canada and the U.K. have reservations
about doing business with the Chinese telecom equipment suppliers.
RECENT FINDOUTS China (I) 18
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63. Apple has 11 stores in China and Hong Kong. Revenues from China jumped
82.8% year over year to $22.79 billion in fiscal 2012.
64. Smartphone shipments in China hit a new record with the addition of
more than 60 million customers in the third quarter of 2012.
65. China will reclaim its lead as the world's largest Smartphones market in
2013 as the nation is expected to sell 240 million Smartphones. This would
represent one-third of global shipments, said analysis firm Canalys
66. Total shipments hit 224 million in 2012 in China, making the country the
world's No 1 Smartphone manufacturer.
67. Other countries with big increases in smart phone usage expected in 2013,
include: Brazil +40 per cent, Russia +30.7 per cent, India +61.4 per cent
and Indonesia +51.7 per cent.
RECENT FINDOUTS China (II) 19
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Source : Chinadaily.com.cn
68. Telecom Services market in South Africa to grow at a CAGR of 1.91 percent
over the period 2011-2015.
69. Most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have mobile penetration rates
of less than 80%, but growth will still slow.
70. Among them Ugandas telecommunication sector will peak at US$1 billion
by 2017
71. By the end of 2012 Ugandas telecom sector had accrued US$858 million in
service revenue.
72. Mobile voice service revenue to decline from $613 million (USh1.45
trillion) in 2012 to $576 million (USh1.4 trillion) in 2017
73. Pyramid Research identified the main growth drivers in Uganda to be fixed
data services, with a CAGR of 23 percent, and mobile data with a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1 percent, amounting to
accumulative revenue opportunity of $1.9 billion (USh4.7 billion)
between 2012 and 2017.
RECENT FINDOUTS Middle East & Africa 20
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74. Saudi Arabia's telecom investment to reach SR37bn in 2013.
75. Saudi Arabia is by-far the largest telecom market in the GCC, accounting
for 66% of total mobile subscribers, 59% of total fixed-line connections and
58% of total internet users. Despite this only 38% of the country's
population are connected to the internet.
76. The latest CITC figures indicate that broadband penetration reached
almost 40% in the third-quarter of 2012 or 11.73 million users due to the
expanded use of smart phones and offerings of various data packages by
mobile operators. Fixed broadband subscriptions including DSL, fixed
wireless (WiMAX), FITx and other fixed lines have also grown during the
same period to around 2.25 million subscribers at a penetration rate of
36.5% of households Kingdom-wide.
RECENT FINDOUTS Middle East & Africa 21
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Source : citc.gov.sa
77. Australian telecom market to reach $43 billion by this year.
78. Government decided to change its broadband infrastructure and plan to
launch supporting policies in e-commerce, e-health, e-education and smart
grid.
79. The $36 billion plan includes a government investment of $27 billion and
needs to be seen in the context of the $60 billion raised by the
privatization of Telstra (Telstra is Australias largest telecommunications
provider offering a full range of telecom services throughout Australia.)
80. NBN (National Broadband Network) will connect around 7% of all premises
in the country to fixed-wireless networks.
81. Australia has 5.5 million mobile broadband subscribers, the release of a 4G
network by one mobile network operator witnessed growth of more
than 300,000 subscribers in just over half a year.
RECENT FINDOUTS Australia 22
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Source : buddeblog.com.au
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