Dendroclimatic Analyses

You now have the climate variables. Whats the next step?

Statistical analyses to select the ONE climate variable to eventually
reconstruct.
We must first carefully analyze the climate/tree growth relationship
Response function analysis:
biological model of tree growth/climate relationship
developed by Hal Fritts in early 1970s
uses the final tree-ring chronology developed after
standardization
uses monthly temperature and precipitation
uses months from the previous year as well (why?)
Response function analysis:
uses principal components (PC) multiple regression
PC analysis removes effects of interdependence among
climate variables
more recent software (PRECON) also uses bootstrapping to
calculate confidence intervals
notice r-squared values due to climate and prior growth
interpret the diagram. Look for bumps, humps, dips, and
dumps.
Bump = single positive monthly variable
Hump = two or more consecutive positive monthly
variables
Dip = single negative monthly variable
Dump = two or more consecutive negative monthly
variables
Response function analysis:
Response Function Analysis
Correlation analysis
Correlation analysis complements results from response
function analysis.
RFA primarily concerned with temp and precip. Correlation
analysis can be done on ALL climate variables (PDSI,
ENSO, PDO, etc.)
Correlation analysis best done with stats packages (SAS,
Systat) or PRECON.
Range of values = -1.0 < r < +1.0
Associated with each r-value is its p-value which tests for
statistical significance.
In general, we want p-values less than 0.05, or p < 0.05.
As in response function analysis, we also analyze months
from the previous growing season (why?).
As in response function analysis, we look for groupings of
monthly variables to indicate seasonal response by trees.
Correlation analysis
Graphical output from PRECON. Any value above +0.2 or below -0.2 is significant.
Positive!
Negative!
Note how response function analysis (top) and correlation
analysis (bottom) are complementary (but different).
Pearson Correlation Coefficients
Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0
Number of Observations

lmayt ljunt ljult laugt lsept loctt lnovt

-0.08019 -0.03131 -0.34233 -0.16914 -0.29516 -0.09849 -0.02712
0.4941 0.7897 0.0023 0.1414 0.0096 0.4071 0.8173
75 75 77 77 76 73 75
Correlation analysis

R-values also known as Pearson correlation coefficients
SAS output below: r-value (top), p-value (middle), n size
(bottom)
How do you interpret negative correlations?
Pearson Correlation Coefficients
Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0
Number of Observations

jult augt sept octt novt dect

-0.41391 -0.18258 -0.21850 -0.08422 -0.02171 -0.13367
0.0002 0.1120 0.0579 0.4756 0.8534 0.2562
77 77 76 74 75 74
Correlation analysis
Stepwise multiple regression analysis
Another complementary technique
Why do the
two series
diverge
here?
Climate Reconstruction
Youve chosen your ONE climate variable to reconstruct based
on these analyses.
Use ordinary least squares regression techniques, which says:
Tree growth is a function of climate, but we want to reconstruct
climate.
Instead, we state climate is a function of tree growth.
x-values are the predictor variable = tree-ring chronology
y-values are the predictand variable = climate variable
^
y = ax + b + e is the form of the regression line
In many older studies, it was common to conduct a regression
over a calibration period (e.g. 1951-1990), and verify this
equation against data in a verification period (e.g. 1910-1949) to
ensure the robustness of the predicted values.

In SAS:
proc reg; model jult = std;
where jult = July temperature being reconstructed, and
std = the tree-ring (standard) chronology
In the regression output, you will be given the regression
coefficient (a) and the constant (b).
To generate predicted climate data before the calibration period,
plug these two values into an equation to predict July
temperature.
Do this for the full length of the tree-ring record for each year.
predict = (9.59154*std) + 32.96236;
where predict is predicted July temperature and std = the
tree-ring data.
Climate Reconstruction
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
1
7
2
6
1
7
3
9
1
7
5
2
1
7
6
5
1
7
7
8
1
7
9
1
1
8
0
4
1
8
1
7
1
8
3
0
1
8
4
3
1
8
5
6
1
8
6
9
1
8
8
2
1
8
9
5
1
9
0
8
1
9
2
1
1
9
3
4
1
9
4
7
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
9
9
Reconstructed Bemidji Feb-May Mean Monthly Max Temp
Climate Reconstruction
Reconstructed Water Year Rainfall, New Mexico
Reconstructed Nov-Apr average temp, Tasmania
Reconstructed Blue River Annual Streamflow, Colorado
Reconstructed Temperatures from Multiple Proxies, the
famous Hockey Stick graph