Risk Calculation Model

The model is an analytical model used to calculate the risks

associated with hazardous materials developed following QRA
procedure given by several authors.

The MPACT (population impact of toxic and flammable effects)
model implemented in the SAFETI DNV software is a mathematical
model that calculates a number of results relating to the impact on
the land and population potentially affected by the various toxic
and/or flammable events that are defined as inputs by the user.

The accident consequences of hazardous materials (i.e. fire and
explosion outcomes) in terms of their effect zones (distances), as
one of the model inputs were calculated using PHAST.

The results are presented as F-N curve for societal risk and
individual risk profiles.

Risk calculation model
environment modified form
Risk Measures for Loss of Life
Risks to people may be expressed in two
main forms:
1. Individual risk the risk experienced by
an individual person
2. Societal (or group) risk the risk
experienced by the whole group of people
exposed to the hazard. The term societal
is used to encompass both public and
worker risk.
INDIVIDUAL RISK
Individual Risk (IR) is the frequency at which an individual may be expected
to sustain a given level of harm from the realization of specified hazards.
IR measures are single numbers or a set of risk estimates for various
individuals or geographic locations.
IR is calculated by identifying all sources of fatality risk to a given individual,
deriving the contribution from each source and then summing these to give
the overall risk.
For typical oil, gas and petrochemical workers the primary sources of risk
are:
Occupational, e.g. slips and falls, drowning
Transport, e.g. road traffic accidents, air transport accidents
Hydrocarbon related, e.g. loss of containment leading to toxic releases, fires
or explosions
IR is the risk that an individual would face from a facility if they remained
fixed at one spot 24 hours a day 365 days per year. Its value is a frequency
of fatality, usually chances per million per year, and it is displayed as a 2
dimensional plot over a locality plan as contours of iso-risk.

Simplified Individual Risk Plot
(numbers are fatality frequency
per year)
Example of an individual risk,
i.e. risk profile
Workers Members of Public
Maximum tolerable
criterion
10-3 per year 10-4 per year
Broadly acceptable
criterion
10-6 per year

10-6 per year

Individual Risk Criteria according to UK HSE
Total Individual Risk Action Indicated
> 1.0 x 10-3 Risk mitigation or further risk
assessment is required
1.0 x 10-3 to 1.0 x 10-5 Risk reduction should be considered
<1.0 x 10-5 Further risk or assessment reduction
need not be considered
Individual Risk Criteria by API RP 752
SOCIETAL RISK
Societal Risk is the relationship between the frequency and
the number of people suffering from a specified level of harm
in a given population from the realization of specified
hazards.
Societal risk is used in quantified risk assessment (QRA)
studies and is depicted on a cumulative graph called an F/N
curve
The concept of societal risk is illustrated in figure. Situations
A and B have equal individuals risk levels (IR and IR) but B
has a larger societal risk (SR) because more people are
exposed (Jonkman 2003)

FN-Diagram
A common form of
presenting risk tolerability
criteria for societal risk is
on an FN-diagram, where
two criteria lines divide the
space into three regions
where risk is intolerable,
where it is broadly
acceptable and where it
requires further
assessment and risk
reduction as far as is
reasonably practicable
ALARP
The ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) technique is
one method used in the establishment of risk criteria. The
general framework for this technique is represented by the
three tier system. The risk level boundaries vary along with
the number of people at risk. The values vary depending on
the industry sector, safety philosophy implemented by the
industry and the practically of applying risk reduction
techniques.
The ALARP principle is applied to the intermediate region
between the unacceptable and acceptable bounds where
further individual and societal risk reductions are required to
achieve a level considered as low as reasonably practicable.
In reality, the risks associated with most facilities lie in the
middle band of the risk tolerability framework the ALARP
region.
A Framework for Risk Criteria
The most common and flexible
framework used for risk criteria
divides risks into three bands
(HSE 2001):
An unacceptable region, where
risks are intolerable except in
extraordinary circumstances, and
risk reduction measures are
essential.
A middle band, or ALARP region,
where risk reduction measures are
desirable, but may not be
implemented if their cost is
disproportionate to the benefit
achieved.
A broadly acceptable region,
where no further risk reduction
measures are needed.
ALARP Process
ALARP Tools
Tools are Available to Help Demonstrate ALARP
International Risk Acceptance
Criteria



UK HSE (COMAH)
NSW (Netherland)
Hong Kong Societal Risk
Victorian Societal Risk Criteria used in Australia and
New Zealand
Individual Risk Criteria by API RP 752


United Kingdom HSE FN Criteria


NSW (Netherland) F-N Curve
Hong Kong Societal Risk
Guidelines (risk to public only)
Victorian Societal Risk Criteria
used in Australia and New Zealand