DROUGHT

Economic cost and coping

mechanism
Climate related natural disasters are
principal sources of risk and uncertainties
in agriculture.

DROUGHT
It describes a situation that is substantially belong
what has been stablish to be normal value for the
area concern, leading to adverse consequences
on human welfare.

3 definitions of drought
Meteorological drought
Hydrological drought
Agricultural drought

Meteorological drought
A situation in which the actual rain fall
significantly below the long term average
for the area.


Hydrological drought
A situation of depletion in surface and
subsurface water resources due to
shortfall in precipitation.
Agricultural Drought
It occurs when the soil moisture is in
sufficient to meet crop water
requirements resulting in yield losses.
Risk-coping strategies
1. Ex-ante
2. Ex-post
Ex-ante
It helps to reduce the fluctuations in
income and are also reffered to as
income-smoothing strategies.
2 Categories of Ex-ante
1. Those that reduce risk by diversification
-not putting all eggs in one basket
2. Those that do so by imparting greater
flexibility in decision making
-maintaining flexibility is an adoptive
strategy that allows farmers to switch
between activities as the situation demands.

Ex-post
Designed to prevent short fall
consumption when the income drops
below what is necessary for maintaining
consumption at its normal level.

Analytical Results
Estimated probability of early and late season
drought, in Southern China(1982-2001), Eastern
India(1970-2000), and Northeast Thailand(1970-2002).

probability

The overall economic cost of
drought

Value of production lost
The cost farmer incur in making
adjustment in production system
Opportunites forgone during good years
by adopting ex-ante coping strategy
Lower productivity of drought prone areas
Cost of government programs aimed at
long-term mitigation
3 main mechanism to recoup
loss in income
1. Sale of livestock
2. Sale of other assets
3. Borrowing


-these adjustments meachanism help
recover only 6-13% of the loss in total
income
Adjustment
Loss in production resulted in major
adjusments in consumption
1. Reduce sale of rice
2. Reduce quantity retained as seeds for the
following year
3. Increased amount purchased
4. Substitution of other crops for rice
5. Suplementation of food deficit by other
types of food
6. Reduction in consumption
Major factors in determining
magnitudes of economic
losses


The nature of droughts in these two regions

1. Difference in rice production system
2. Level of income diversification

Drought Mitigation
option
Imroved rice technologies that help
reduce the losses to drought can play an
important role in long-term drought
mitigation

Scientific progress for drought tolerance
-developing drought tolerant rice
germplasm
Complementary crop management
research to manipulate the ff:
1. Crop establishment
2. Fertilization
3. Genral crop care
4. Better utilization of soil moisture
5. Enhance ability to recover rapidly
Late Season Drought vs. Early
Season Drought

Late season drought is more frequent and
tends to have more serious economic
consequences for poor farmers than early
season drought.
Drought Coping Mechanisms
1. Crop diversification
-rice technology increase not just the
yield but also the labor productivity will
facilitate crop and income diversification
2. Development of water resoure
a.Large scale development of irrigation
b.Watershed-based approaches
Indias drought relief coping
mechanism
fire fighting approach
long term strategy of investing in soil
and water conservation
Meteorology and informatics
It has been made possible to forecast
drought with reasonable degrees of
accuracy and reliability

Southern escillation index
It is an indicator that is used to forecast
drought


Household Level of impact of
droughts
Given the clear linkage between drought
and poverty, it is crtitically important to
include drought mitigation as an intergral
part of rural development strategy
thanks!
for your PATIENCE