Enrollment Projections and the Budget

Process: A Technique for Smart Planning

SCUP-39 Annual Conference
Toronto, Canada
July 20, 2004
Dale Trusheim, Associate Director
Office of Institutional Research and Planning
University of Delaware
Phone: 302-831-2021
Fax: 302-831-8530
Email: trusheim@udel.edu
Carol Rylee, Director
Budget Office
University of Delaware
Phone: 302-831-1234
Fax: 302-831-8530
Email: rylee@udel.edu
Summary of Presentation
Enrollment Projection Methods
UD Enrollment Model
Brief Demo of Excel Enrollment Proj Model
IR Enrollment Model informs Budget Office
Tuition Model
Parameters & Relevance of Tuition Model
Brief Demo of Tuition Model
Questions

Enrollment Projection Methods
Ad Hoc
Cohort Survival
Moving averages
Exponential smoothing
Time series (Box-Jenkins)
Linear regression and auto regression
SPSS Trends
UD Method
Enrollment in a given semester is simply a
function of the behaviors of two groups of
students:
1. New Students (Inputs)
2. Continuers
New Students
Freshmen
Transfers
Readmitted
Continuing
Students
Total number enrolled
from prior semester
minus
(number of graduates +
number of withdrawals)
+
UD Method
UD Method
SPRING
2003
FALL
2003
SPRING
2004
FALL
2004
FALL
2002
Historical Data Predicted Data
History
Primary task is to
develop a model to
depict student flow
and to generate a
prediction for future
enrollment . . . . . .


MS EXCEL
UD Method
Input headcount enrollment for three groups of
students (historical average or one-time)
New Freshmen
Transfers
Readmits

Predict headcount enrollment for
Continuing students

Estimate percentage of full-time and part-time
students
Excel Model 3 Components
Accuracy of Enrollment Prediction for 1998F: Nonresidents and Residents Combined
Predicted Actual Diff Error %
Freshmen 3,597 3,561 36 1.01%
Transfers 568 582 -14 -2.41%
Continuing 11,070 11,126 -56 -0.50%
Readmits 160 174 -14 -8.05%
TOTAL 15,395 15,443 -48 -0.31%
Accuracy of Enrollment Prediction for 2001F: Nonresidents and Residents Combined
Predicted Actual Diff Error %
Freshmen 3,440 3,379 61 1.81%
Transfers 600 602 -2 -0.33%
Continuing 11,430 11,582 -152 -1.31%
Readmits 169 168 1 0.60%
TOTAL 15,639 15,731 -92 -0.58%
Accuracy of Enrollment Prediction for 2003F: Nonresidents and Residents Combined
Predicted Actual Diff Error %
Freshmen 3,440 3,450 -10 -0.29%
Transfers 600 579 21 3.63%
Continuing 11,818 11,628 190 1.63%
Readmits 162 151 11 7.28%
TOTAL 16,020 15,808 212 1.34%
Enrollment Projection Accuracy
Enrollment
Projection Model
Budget Office Model uses separate
Excel model to projection tuition
income
Request Enrollment Model 3-4
times per year
Use numbers from enrollment
model in spreadsheet model of
tuition income

Tuition Model
FT/PT mix
Resident/NonResident Mix
Fall to Spring Attrition
Upcharge over 17 credits
Grad vs. Undergrad
Tuition Model Parameters
Forecast Full-time Undergrad
Construct what-if scenarios in regard to
enrollment
Easily calculate each x% or $x change
in tuition
Identify source of variances of actual
from budgeted.

Uses of Model
Accurate budgeting of tuition
Dont want to underbudget campus
confidence in numbers Is important
Dont want to overbudget leads to
shortfall in income at year-end
Assessment of accuracy of model
Can quickly identify source of
variances
Allows fine-tuning of models

Relevance of models
Allows viewing of all factors related
to enrollment and tuition income in
succinct fashion
Facilitates comparision of tuition
budgets from year to year

Relevance of Models
Part-time, Graduate and Special
Sessions
Model is based on numbers of credit
hours by residency.
Model is used in years when major
changes are anticipated in mix and/or
credit hours
Otherwise, use projection of prior
year actual increased by estimated
tuition increase
Other than Full-time Tuition
Tuition
Projection Model
Questions?


Copy of Powerpoint and Excel
Models are available at:


Questions & Info
http://www.udel.edu/ir/reports/presentations.html