Powerpoint

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Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Forecasting
13
For Operations Management, 9e by
Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra
2010 Pearson Education
PowerPoint Slides
by Jeff Heyl
13 2
Forecasting
Forecasts are critical inputs to business plans,
annual plans, and budgets
Finance, human resources, marketing, operations,
and supply chain managers need forecasts to
plan: output levels, purchases of services and
materials, workforce and output schedules,
inventories, and long-term capacities
Forecasts are made on many different variables
Forecasts are important to managing both
processes and managing supply chains

13 3
Demand Patterns
A time series is the repeated observations
of demand for a service or product in their
order of occurrence
There are five basic time series patterns
Horizontal
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Random
13 4
Demand Patterns
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y

Time
(a) Horizontal: Data cluster about a horizontal line
Figure 13.1 Patterns of Demand
13 5
Demand Patterns
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y

Time
(b) Trend: Data consistently increase or decrease
13 6
Demand Patterns
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y

| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Months
(c) Seasonal: Data consistently show peaks and valleys
Year 1
Year 2
13 7
Demand Patterns
Q
u
a
n
t
i
t
y

| | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
(d) Cyclical: Data reveal gradual increases and
decreases over extended periods
13 8
Key Decisions
Deciding what to forecast
Level of aggregation
Units of measure
Choosing a forecasting system
Choosing the type of forecasting technique
Judgment and qualitative methods
Causal methods
Time-series analysis
Key factor in choosing the proper
forecasting approach is the time horizon
for the decision requiring forecasts
13 9
J udgment Methods
Other methods (casual and time-series) require
an adequate history file, which might not be
available
Judgmental forecasts use contextual knowledge
gained through experience
Sales force estimates
Executive opinion is a method in which
opinions, experience, and technical knowledge
of one or more managers are summarized to
arrive at a single forecast
Delphi method
13 10
J udgment Methods
Market research is a systematic approach used
to determine external customer interest through
data-gathering surveys
Delphi method is a process of gaining
consensus from a group of experts while
maintaining their anonymity
Useful when no historical data are available
Can be used to develop long-range forecasts
and technological forecasting
13 11
Linear Regression
A dependent variable is related to one or more
independent variables by a linear equation
The independent variables are assumed to
cause the results observed in the past
Simple linear regression model is a straight line
Y = a + bX
where
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = Y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line
13 12
Linear Regression
D
e
p
e
n
d
e
n
t

v
a
r
i
a
b
l
e

Independent variable
X
Y
Estimate of
Y from
regression
equation
Regression
equation:
Y = a + bX
Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
Deviation,
or error
Figure 13.2 Linear Regression Line Relative to Actual Data
13 13
Linear Regression
The sample correlation coefficient, r
Measures the direction and strength of the relationship
between the independent variable and the dependent
variable.
The value of r can range from 1.00 r 1.00
The sample coefficient of determination, r
2
Measures the amount of variation in the dependent
variable about its mean that is explained by the
regression line
The values of r
2
range from 0.00 r
2
1.00
The standard error of the estimate, s
yx
Measures how closely the data on the dependent variable
clusters around the regression line
13 14
Using Linear Regression
EXAMPLE 13.1
The supply chain manager seeks a better way to forecast the
demand for door hinges and believes that the demand is related
to advertising expenditures. The following are sales and
advertising data for the past 5 months:
Month Sales (thousands of units) Advertising (thousands of $)
1 264 2.5
2 116 1.3
3 165 1.4
4 101 1.0
5 209 2.0
The company will spend $1,750 next month on advertising for
the product. Use linear regression to develop an equation and
a forecast for this product.
13 15
SOLUTION
We used POM for Windows to determine the best values of a, b,
the correlation coefficient, the coefficient of determination, and
the standard error of the estimate
a =
b =
r =
r
2
=
s
yx
=
The regression equation is
Y = 8.135 + 109.229X
8.135
109.229X
0.980
0.960
15.603
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The regression line is shown in Figure 13.3. The r of 0.98
suggests an unusually strong positive relationship between
sales and advertising expenditures. The coefficient of
determination, r
2
, implies that 96 percent of the variation in
sales is explained by advertising expenditures.
| |
1.0 2.0
Advertising ($000)
250
200
150
100
50
0
S
a
l
e
s

(
0
0
0

u
n
i
t
s
)

Brass Door Hinge
X
X
X
X
X
X
Data

Forecasts
Figure 13.3 Linear Regression Line for the Sales and Advertising Data
13 17
Time Series Methods
In a naive forecast the forecast for the next
period equals the demand for the current
period (Forecast = D
t
)

Estimating the average: simple moving
averages
Used to estimate the average of a demand time
series and thereby remove the effects of
random fluctuation
Most useful when demand has no pronounced
trend or seasonal influences
The stability of the demand series generally
determines how many periods to include
13 18
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
450
430
410
390
370
350
P
a
t
i
e
n
t

a
r
r
i
v
a
l
s

Time Series Methods
Figure 13.4 Weekly Patient Arrivals at a Medical Clinic
13 19
Simple Moving Averages
Specifically, the forecast for period t + 1 can be
calculated at the end of period t (after the actual
demand for period t is known) as
F
t+1
= =

Sum of last n demands
n
D
t
+ D
t-1
+ D
t-2
+ + D
t-n+1
n
where
D
t
= actual demand in period t
n = total number of periods in the average
F
t+1
= forecast for period t + 1
13 20
Simple Moving Averages
For any forecasting method, it is important to
measure the accuracy of its forecasts. Forecast
error is simply the difference found by subtracting
the forecast from actual demand for a given
period, or
where
E
t
= forecast error for period t
D
t
= actual demand in period t
F
t
= forecast for period t
E
t
= D
t
F
t

13 21
Using the Moving Average Method
EXAMPLE 13.2
a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for the
arrival of medical clinic patients in week 4. The numbers of
arrivals for the past three weeks were as follows:
Week Patient Arrivals
1 400
2 380
3 411
b. If the actual number of patient arrivals in week 4 is 415,
what is the forecast error for week 4?
c. What is the forecast for week 5?
13 22
Using the Moving Average Method
SOLUTION
a. The moving average forecast at
the end of week 3 is
1 400
2 380
3 411
b. The forecast error for week 4 is
F
4
= = 397.0
411 + 380 + 400
3
E
4
= D
4
F
4
= 415 397 = 18
c. The forecast for week 5 requires the actual arrivals from
weeks 2 through 4, the three most recent weeks of data
F
5
= = 402.0
380 + 411 + 415
3
13 23
Application 13.1a
Estimate Simple Moving Average using the following customer-
arrival data
Month Customer arrival
1 800
2 740
3 810
4 790
Use a three-month moving average to forecast customer
arrivals for month 5
F
5
= = 780
D
4
+ D
3
+ D
2
3
790 + 810 + 740
3
=
Forecast for month 5 is 780 customer arrivals
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Application 13.1a
If the actual number of arrivals in month 5 is 805, what is the
forecast for month 6?
F
6
= = 801.667
D
5
+ D
4
+ D
3
3
805 + 790 + 810
3
=
Month Customer arrival
1 800
2 740
3 810
4 790
13 25
Application 13.1a
Forecast error is simply the difference found by subtracting the
forecast from actual demand for a given period, or
Given the three-month moving average forecast for month 5,
and the number of patients that actually arrived (805), what is
the forecast error?
Forecast error for month 5 is 25
E
t
= D
t
F
t

E
5
= 805 780 = 25
13 26
In the weighted moving average method, each
historical demand in the average can have its own
weight, provided that the sum of the weights equals
1.0. The average is obtained by multiplying the
weight of each period by the actual demand for that
period, and then adding the products together:
Weighted Moving Averages
F
t+1
= W
1
D
1
+ W
2
D
2
+ + W
n
D
t-n+1
A three-period weighted moving average model with
the most recent period weight of 0.50, the second
most recent weight of 0.30, and the third most
recent might be weight of 0.20
F
t+1
= 0.50D
t
+ 0.30D
t1
+ 0.20D
t2
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Application 13.1b
Revisiting the customer arrival data in Application 13.1a. Let
W
1
= 0.50, W
2
= 0.30, and W
3
= 0.20. Use the weighted moving
average method to forecast arrivals for month 5.
= 0.50(790) + 0.30(810) + 0.20(740)

F
5
= W
1
D
4
+ W
2
D
3
+ W
3
D
2
= 786
Given the number of patients that actually arrived (805), what
is the forecast error?
E
5
= 805 786 = 19
13 28
Application 13.1b
If the actual number of arrivals in month 5 is 805, compute
the forecast for month 6
= 0.50(805) + 0.30(790) + 0.20(810)

F
6
= W
1
D
5
+ W
2
D
4
+ W
3
D
3
= 801.5
13 29
Exponential Smoothing
A sophisticated weighted moving average that
calculates the average of a time series by giving
recent demands more weight than earlier demands
Requires only three items of data
The last periods forecast
The demand for this period
A smoothing parameter, alpha (), where 0 1.0
The equation for the forecast is
F
t+1
= (Demand this period) + (1 )(Forecast calculated last period)
= D
t
+ (1 )F
t
F
t+1
= F
t
+ (D
t
F
t
)
or the equivalent
13 30
Exponential Smoothing
The emphasis given to the most recent demand
levels can be adjusted by changing the smoothing
parameter
Larger values emphasize recent levels of
demand and result in forecasts more responsive
to changes in the underlying average
Smaller values treat past demand more
uniformly and result in more stable forecasts
Exponential smoothing is simple and requires
minimal data
When the underlying average is changing, results
will lag actual changes
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450
430
410
390
370
P
a
t
i
e
n
t

a
r
r
i
v
a
l
s

Week
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
3-week MA
forecast
6-week MA
forecast
Exponential
smoothing
= 0.10
Exponential Smoothing and
Moving Average
13 32
Using Exponential Smoothing
EXAMPLE 13.3
a. Reconsider the patient arrival data in Example 13.2. It is
now the end of week 3. Using = 0.10, calculate the
exponential smoothing forecast for week 4.
1 400
2 380
3 411
4 415

b. What was the forecast error for week 4 if the actual demand
turned out to be 415?
c. What is the forecast for week 5?
13 33
SOLUTION
a. The exponential smoothing method requires an initial
forecast. Suppose that we take the demand data for the first
two weeks and average them, obtaining (400 + 380)/2 = 390
as an initial forecast. (POM for Windows and OM Explorer
simply use the actual demand for the first week as a default
setting for the initial forecast for period 1, and do not begin
tracking forecast errors until the second period). To obtain
the forecast for week 4, using exponential smoothing with
and the initial forecast of 390, we calculate the average at
the end of week 3 as
F
4
=
Thus, the forecast for week 4 would be 392 patients.
0.10(411) + 0.90(390) = 392.1
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b. The forecast error for week 4 is
c. The new forecast for week 5 would be
E
4
=
F
5
=
or 394 patients. Note that we used F
4
, not the integer-value
forecast for week 4, in the computation for F
5
. In general, we
round off (when it is appropriate) only the final result to
maintain as much accuracy as possible in the calculations.
415 392 = 23
0.10(415) + 0.90(392.1) = 394.4
13 35
Application 13.1c
Suppose the value of the customer arrival series average in
month 3 was 783 customers (let it be F
4
). Use exponential
smoothing with = 0.20 to compute the forecast for month 5.
F
t+1
= F
t
+ (D
t
F
t
) = 783 + 0.20(790 783) = 784.4
Given the number of patients that actually arrived (805),
what is the forecast error?
E
5
=
805 784 = 21
13 36
Application 13.1c
Given the actual number of arrivals in month 5, what is the
forecast for month 6?
F
t+1
= F
t
+ (D
t
F
t
) = 784.4 + 0.20(805 784.4) = 788.52
13 37
Including a Trend
A trend in a time series is a systematic
increase or decrease in the average of the
series over time

The forecast can be improved by
calculating an estimate of the trend

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing
requires two smoothing constants
13 38
Including a Trend
For each period, we calculate the average and the
trend:
A
t
= (Demand this period)
+ (1 )(Average + Trend estimate last period)
= D
t
+ (1 )(A
t1
+ T
t1
)
T
t
= (Average this period Average last period)
+ (1 )(Trend estimate last period)
= (A
t
A
t1
) + (1 )T
t1
F
t+1
= A
t
+ T
t
where
A
t
= exponentially smoothed average of the series in period t
T
t
= exponentially smoothed average of the trend in period t
= smoothing parameter for the average, with a value between 0 and 1
= smoothing parameter for the trend, with a value between 0 and 1
F
t+1
= forecast for period t + 1
13 39
Using Trend-Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing
EXAMPLE 13.4
Medanalysis, Inc., provides medical laboratory
services
Managers are interested in forecasting the number of
blood analysis requests per week
There has been a national increase in requests for
standard blood tests
Medanalysis recently ran an average of 28 blood tests
per week and the trend has been about three additional
patients per week
This weeks demand was for 27 blood tests
We use = 0.20 and = 0.20 to calculate the forecast
for next week
13 40
30.2 + 2.8 = 33 blood tests
Smoothing
SOLUTION
If the actual number of blood tests requested in week 2
proved to be 44, the updated forecast for week 3 would be
A
0
= 28 patients and T
0
= 3 patients
The forecast for week 2 (next week) is
A
1
=
T
1
=
F
2
=
0.20(27) + 0.80(28 + 3) = 30.2
0.20(30.2 28) + 0.80(3) = 2.8
A
2
=
F
3
= 35.2 + 3.2 = 38.4 or 38 blood tests
0.2(35.2 30.2) + 0.80(2.8) = 3.2
0.20(44) + 0.80(30.2 + 2.8) = 35.2
T
2
=
13 41
Smoothing
TABLE 13.1 | FORECASTS FOR MEDANALYSIS USING THE TREND-ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL
| SMOOTHING MODEL
Calculations to Forecast Arrivals for Next Week
Week Arrivals
Smoothed
Average
Trend
Average
Forecast for This Week Forecast Error
0 28 28.00 3.00
1 27
2 44
3 37
4 35
5 53
6 38
7 57
8 61
9 39
10 55
11 54
12 52
13 60
14 60
15 75
13 42
Smoothing
30.20 + 2.84 = 33.04
4 30.20
35.23
2.84
3.28
28.00 + 3.00 = 31.00
35.23 + 3.28 = 38.51
38.21 + 3.22 = 41.43
40.14 + 2.96 = 43.10
45.08 + 3.36 = 48.44
46.35 + 2.94 = 49.29
50.83 + 3.25 = 54.08
55.46 + 3.52 = 58.98
54.99 + 2.72 = 57.71
57.17 + 2.62 = 59.79
58.63 + 2.38 = 61.01
59.21 + 2.02 = 61.23
60.99 + 1.97 = 62.96
62.37 + 1.86 = 64.23
10.96
1.51
6.43
9.90
10.44
7.71
6.92
19.98
2.71
5.79
9.01
1.23
2.96
10.77
38.21
40.14
45.08
46.35
50.83
55.46
54.99
57.17
58.63
59.21
60.99
62.37
66.38
3.22
2.96
3.36
2.94
3.25
3.52
2.72
2.62
2.38
2.02
1.97
1.86
2.29
TABLE 13.1 | FORECASTS FOR MEDANALYSIS USING THE TREND-ADJUSTED EXPONENTIAL
| SMOOTHING MODEL
Calculations to Forecast Arrivals for Next Week
Week Arrivals
Smoothed
Average
Trend
Average
Forecast for This Week Forecast Error
0 28 28.00 3.00
1 27
2 44
3 37
4 35
5 53
6 38
7 57
8 61
9 39
10 55
11 54
12 52
13 60
14 60
15 75
13 43
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
80
70
60
50
40
30
P
a
t
i
e
n
t

a
r
r
i
v
a
l
s

Week
Actual blood
test requests
Trend-adjusted
forecast
Smoothing
Figure 13.5 Trend-Adjusted Forecast for Medanalysis
13 44
Application 13.2
The forecaster for Canine Gourmet dog breath fresheners
estimated (in March) the sales average to be 300,000 cases sold
per month and the trend to be +8,000 per month. The actual
sales for April were 330,000 cases. What is the forecast for May,
assuming = 0.20 and = 0.10?
A
Apr
= D
t
+ (1 )(A
Mar
+ T
Mar
)
T
Apr
= (A
Apr
A
Mar
) + (1 )T
Mar
Forecast for May = A
Apr
+ pT
Apr
= 0.20(330,000) + 0.80(300,000 + 8,000) = 312,400 cases
= 0.10(312,400 300,000) + 0.90(8,000) = 8,440 cases
= 312,400 + (1)(8,440) = 320,840 cases
13 45
Application 13.2
Suppose you also wanted the forecast for July, three months
ahead. To make forecasts for periods beyond the next period,
we multiply the trend estimate by the number of additional
periods that we want in the forecast and add the results to the
current average.
Forecast for July = A
Apr
+ pT
Apr
= 312,400 + (3)(8,440) = 337,720 cases
13 46
Seasonal Patterns
Seasonal patterns are regularly repeated
upward or downward movements in
demand measured in periods of less than
one year

Account for seasonal effects by using one
of the techniques already described but to
limit the data in the time series to those
periods in the same season

This approach accounts for seasonal
effects but discards considerable
information on past demand
13 47
1. For each year, calculate the average demand for
each season by dividing annual demand by the
number of seasons per year
2. For each year, divide the actual demand for each
season by the average demand per season,
resulting in a seasonal index for each season
3. Calculate the average seasonal index for each
season using the results from Step 2
4. Calculate each seasons forecast for next year
Multiplicative Seasonal Method
Multiplicative seasonal method, whereby seasonal
factors are multiplied by an estimate of the average
demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast
13 48
The manager wants to forecast customer demand for each
quarter of year 5, based on an estimate of total year 5 demand
of 2,600 customers
Using the Multiplicative Seasonal
Method
EXAMPLE 13.5
The manager of the Stanley Steemer carpet cleaning company
needs a quarterly forecast of the number of customers
expected next year. The carpet cleaning business is seasonal,
with a peak in the third quarter and a trough in the first quarter.
Following are the quarterly demand data from the past 4 years:
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Year 4
1 45 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
Total 1000 1200 1800 2200
13 49
Method
SOLUTION
Figure 13.6 shows the solution using the Seasonal Forecasting
Solver in OM Explorer. For the Inputs the forecast for the total
demand in year 5 is needed. The annual demand has been
increasing by an average of 400 customers each year (from
1,000 in year 1 to 2,200 in year 4, or 1,200/3 = 400). The
computed forecast demand is found by extending that trend,
and projecting an annual demand in year 5 of 2,200 + 400 =
2,600 customers.
The Results sheet shows quarterly forecasts by multiplying the
seasonal factors by the average demand per quarter. For
example, the average demand forecast in year 5 is 650
customers (or 2,600/4 = 650). Multiplying that by the seasonal
index computed for the first quarter gives a forecast of 133
customers (or 650 0.2043 = 132.795).
13 50
Method
Figure 13.6 Demand Forecasts
Using the Seasonal
Forecast Solver of OM
Explorer
13 51
Application 13.3
Suppose the multiplicative seasonal method is being used to
forecast customer demand. The actual demand and seasonal
indices are shown below.
Year 1 Year 2
Average
Index Quarter Demand Index Demand Index
1 100 0.40 192 0.64 0.52
2 400 1.60 408 1.36 1.48
3 300 1.20 384 1.28 1.24
4 200 0.80 216 0.72 0.76
Average 250 300
13 52
Application 13.3
1320 units 4 quarters = 330 units
Quarter Average Index
1 0.52
2 1.48
3 1.24
4 0.76
If the projected demand for Year 3 is 1320
units, what is the forecast for each quarter
of that year?
Forecast for Quarter 1 =
0.52(330) 172 units
1.48(330) 488 units
1.24(330) 409 units
0.76(330) 251 units
13 53
(a) Multiplicative pattern
Seasonal Patterns
Period
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 2 4 5 8 10 12 14 16
D
e
m
a
n
d

13 54
Seasonal Patterns
(b) Additive pattern
Period
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 2 4 5 8 10 12 14 16
D
e
m
a
n
d

13 55
Choosing a Time-Series Method
Forecast performance is determined by
forecast errors
Forecast errors detect when something is
going wrong with the forecasting system
Forecast errors can be classified as either bias
errors or random errors
Bias errors are the result of consistent
mistakes
Random error results from unpredictable
factors that cause the forecast to deviate from
the actual demand
13 56
CFE = E
t

Measures of Forecast Error
(E
t
E )
2

n 1
=
E
t
2

n
MSE =
|E
t
|
n
MAD =
(|E
t
|/ D
t
)(100)
n
MAPE =
E =

CFE
n
13 57
Calculating Forecast Errors
EXAMPLE 13.6
The following table shows the actual sales of upholstered
chairs for a furniture manufacturer and the forecasts made for
each of the last eight months. Calculate CFE, MSE, , MAD, and
MAPE for this product.

Month
t
Demand
D
t
Forecast
F
t
Error
E
t
Error
2

E
t
2
Absolute
Error |E
t
|
Absolute % Error
(|E
t
|/D
t
)(100)
1 200 225 25
2 240 220 20
3 300 285 15
4 270 290 20
5 230 250 20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 40 1,600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1,225 35 12.7
Total 15 5,275 195 81.3%
13 58
EXAMPLE 13.6
The following table shows the actual sales of upholstered
chairs for a furniture manufacturer and the forecasts made for
each of the last eight months. Calculate CFE, MSE, , MAD, and
MAPE for this product.

Month
t
Demand
D
t
Forecast
F
t
Error
E
t
Error
2

E
t
2
Absolute
Error |E
t
|
Absolute % Error
(|E
t
|/D
t
)(100)
1 200 225 25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 40 1,600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1,225 35 12.7
Total 15 5,275 195 81.3%
13 59
SOLUTION
Using the formulas for the measures, we get
Cumulative forecast error (bias):
CFE = 15
Average forecast error (mean bias):
Mean squared error:
MSE =
E
t
2
n
CFE
n
E = 1.875 =
5,275
8
=
13 60
Standard deviation:
Mean absolute deviation:
Mean absolute percent error:
[E
t
(1.875)]
2

n 1
=
|E
t
|
n
MAD =
(|E
t
|/ D
t
)(100)
n
MAPE =
= 27.4
= = 24.4
195
8
= = 10.2%
81.3%
8
13 61
A CFE of 15 indicates that the forecast has a slight bias to
overestimate demand.

The MSE, , and MAD statistics provide measures of forecast
error variability.

A MAD of 24.4 means that the average forecast error was 24.4
units in absolute value.

The value of , 27.4, indicates that the sample distribution of
forecast errors has a standard deviation of 27.4 units.

A MAPE of 10.2 percent implies that, on average, the forecast
error was about 10 percent of actual demand.

These measures become more reliable as the number of
periods of data increases.
13 62
Tracking Signals
A measure that indicates whether a method of
forecasting is accurately predicting actual
changes in demand
Useful when forecast systems are computerized
because it alerts analysts when forecast are
getting far from desirable limits
Tracking signal =
CFE
MAD
Each period, the CFE and MAD are updated to
reflect current error, and the tracking signal is
compared to some predetermined limits
13 63
Tracking Signals
The MAD can be calculated as a weighted average
determined by the exponential smoothing method
MAD
t
= |E
t
| + (1 )MAD
t-1
If forecast errors are normally distributed with a
mean of 0, the relationship between and MAD is
simple
= ( /2)(MAD) 1.25(MAD)
MAD = 0.7978 0.8
13 64
+2.0
+1.5
+1.0
+0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
| | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25
Observation number
T
r
a
c
k
i
n
g

s
i
g
n
a
l

Out of control
Tracking Signals
Control limit
Control limit
Figure 13.7 Tracking Signal
13 65
Criteria for Selecting Methods
Criteria to use in making forecast method and
parameter choices include
1. Minimizing bias
2. Minimizing MAPE, MAD, or MSE
3. Meeting managerial expectations of changes in the
components of demand
4. Minimizing the forecast error last period
Statistical performance measures can be used
1. For projections of more stable demand patterns, use
lower and values or larger n values
2. For projections of more dynamic demand patterns try
higher and values or smaller n values
13 66
Using Multiple Techniques
Combination forecasts are forecasts that
are produced by averaging independent
forecasts based on different methods or
different data or both

Focus forecasting selects the best forecast
from a group of forecasts generated by
individual techniques
13 67
Forecasting as a Process
A typical forecasting process
Step 1: Adjust history file
Step 2: Prepare initial forecasts
Step 3: Consensus meetings and collaboration
Step 4: Revise forecasts
Step 5: Review by operating committee
Step 6: Finalize and communicate
Forecasting is not a stand-alone activity,
but part of a larger process
13 68
Forecasting as a Process
Finalize
and
communicate
6
Review by
Operating
Committee
5
Revise
forecasts
4
Consensus
meetings and
collaboration
3
Prepare
initial
forecasts
2
Adjust
history
file
1
13 69
Forecasting Principles
TABLE 13.2 | SOME PRINCIPLES FOR THE FORECASTING PROCESS
Better processes yield better forecasts
Demand forecasting is being done in virtually every company, either
formally or informally. The challenge is to do it wellbetter than the
competition
Better forecasts result in better customer service and lower costs,
as well as better relationships with suppliers and customers
The forecast can and must make sense based on the big picture,
economic outlook, market share, and so on
The best way to improve forecast accuracy is to focus on reducing
forecast error
Bias is the worst kind of forecast error; strive for zero bias
Whenever possible, forecast at more aggregate levels. Forecast in
detail only where necessary
Far more can be gained by people collaborating and communicating
well than by using the most advanced forecasting technique or
model
13 70
Solved Problem 1
Chicken Palace periodically offers carryout five-piece chicken
dinners at special prices. Let Y be the number of dinners sold
and X be the price. Based on the historical observations and
calculations in the following table, determine the regression
equation, correlation coefficient, and coefficient of
determination. How many dinners can Chicken Palace expect
to sell at $3.00 each?
Observation Price (X) Dinners Sold (Y)
1 $2.70 760
2 $3.50 510
3 $2.00 980
4 $4.20 250
5 $3.10 320
6 $4.05 480
Total $19.55 3,300
Average $3.258 550
13 71
Solved Problem 1
SOLUTION
We use the computer to calculate the best values of a, b, the
correlation coefficient, and the coefficient of determination
a =
b =
r =
r
2
= 0.71
0.84
277.63
1,454.60
The regression line is
Y = a + bX = 1,454.60 277.63X
For an estimated sales price of $3.00 per dinner
Y = a + bX = 1,454.60 277.63(3.00)
= 621.71 or 622 dinners
13 72
Solved Problem 2
The Polish Generals Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering
to patrons with a taste for European pizza. One of its specialties
is Polish Prize pizza. The manager must forecast weekly
demand for these special pizzas so that he can order pizza
shells weekly. Recently, demand has been as follows:
Week Pizzas Week Pizzas
June 2 50 June 23 56
June 9 65 June 30 55
June 16 52 July 7 60
a. Forecast the demand for pizza for June 23 to July 14 by
using the simple moving average method with n = 3 then
using the weighted moving average method with and
weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20, with 0.50.
b. Calculate the MAD for each method.
13 73
Solved Problem 2
SOLUTION
a. The simple moving average method and the weighted
moving average method give the following results:
Current
Week
Simple Moving Average
Forecast for Next Week
Weighted Moving Average Forecast
for Next Week
June 16
June 23
June 30
July 7
= 55.7 or 56
52 + 65 + 50
3
[(0.5 52) + (0.3 65) + (0.2 50)] = 55.5 or 56
= 57.7 or 58
56 + 52 + 65
3
= 54.3 or 54
55 + 56 + 52
3
[(0.5 56) + (0.3 52) + (0.2 65)] = 56.6 or 57
[(0.5 55) + (0.3 56) + (0.2 52)] = 54.7 or 55
= 57.0 or 57
60 + 55 + 56
3
[(0.5 60) + (0.3 55) + (0.2 56)] = 57.7 or 58
13 74
Solved Problem 2
b. The mean absolute deviation is calculated as follows:
Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average
Week
Actual
Demand
Forecast for
This Week Absolute Errors |E
t
|
Forecast for
This Week Absolute Errors |E
t
|
June 23 56 56 56
June 30 55 58 57
July 7 60 54 55
|56 56| = 0
|55 58| = 3
|60 54| = 6
MAD = = 3
0 + 3 + 6
3
MAD = = 2.3
0 + 2 + 2
3
|56 56| = 0
|55 57| = 2
|60 55| = 5
For this limited set of data, the weighted moving average
method resulted in a slightly lower mean absolute deviation.
However, final conclusions can be made only after analyzing
much more data.
13 75
Solved Problem 3
The monthly demand for units manufactured by the Acme
Rocket Company has been as follows:
Month Units Month Units
May 100 September 105
June 80 October 110
July 110 November 125
August 115 December 120
a. Use the exponential smoothing method to forecast June to
January. The initial forecast for May was 105 units; = 0.2.
b. Calculate the absolute percentage error for each month
from June through December and the MAD and MAPE of
forecast error as of the end of December.
c. Calculate the tracking signal as of the end of December.
What can you say about the performance of your
forecasting method?
13 76
Solved Problem 3
SOLUTION
a.
Current Month, t
Calculating Forecast for Next
Month F
t+1
= D
t
+ (1 )F
t
Forecast for Month t + 1
May June
June July
July August
August September
September October
October November
November December
December January
0.2(100) + 0.8(105) = 104.0 or 104
0.2(80) + 0.8(104.0)
0.2(110) + 0.8(99.2)
= 99.2 or 99
= 101.4 or 101
0.2(115) + 0.8(101.4)
0.2(105) + 0.8(104.1)
0.2(110) + 0.8(104.3)
0.2(125) + 0.8(105.4)
0.2(120) + 0.8(109.3)
= 104.1 or 104
= 104.3 or 104
= 105.4 or 105
= 109.3 or 109
= 111.4 or 111
13 77
Solved Problem 3
b.
24 24 30.0%
11 11 10.0
Month, t
Actual
Demand,
Dt
Forecast,
Ft
Error,
Et = Dt Ft
Absolute
Error, |Et|
Absolute
Percent
Error,
(|Et|/Dt)(100)
June 80 104
July 110 99
August 115 101
September 105 104
October 110 104
November 125 105
December 120 109
Total 765
14 14 12.0
1 1 1.0
6 6 5.5
20 20 16.0
11 11 9.2
39 87 83.7%
|E
t
|
n
MAD =
(|E
t
|/D
t
)(100)
n
MAPE = = = 11.96%
83.7%
7
= = 12.4
87
7
13 78
Solved Problem 3
c. As of the end of December, the cumulative sum of forecast
errors (CFE) is 39. Using the mean absolute deviation
calculated in part (b), we calculate the tracking signal:
The probability that a tracking signal value of 3.14 could be
generated completely by chance is small. Consequently, we
should revise our approach. The long string of forecasts
lower than actual demand suggests use of a trend method.
Tracking signal =
CFE
MAD
= = 3.14
39
12.4
13 79
Solved Problem 4
The Northville Post Office experiences a seasonal pattern of
daily mail volume every week. The following data for two
representative weeks are expressed in thousands of pieces of
mail:
Day Week 1 Week 2
Sunday 5 8
Monday 20 15
Tuesday 30 32
Wednesday 35 30
Thursday 49 45
Friday 70 70
Saturday 15 10
Total 224 210
a. Calculate a seasonal factor for each day of the week.
b. If the postmaster estimates 230,000 pieces of mail to be
sorted next week, forecast the volume for each day.
13 80
Solved Problem 4
SOLUTION
a. Calculate the average daily mail volume for each week. Then
for each day of the week divide the mail volume by the
weeks average to get the seasonal factor. Finally, for each
day, add the two seasonal factors and divide by 2 to obtain
the average seasonal factor to use in the forecast.
13 81
Solved Problem 4
Week 1 Week 2
Day
Mail
Volume
Seasonal Factor
(1)
Mail
Volume
Seasonal Factor
(2)
Average
Seasonal Factor
[(1) + (2)]/2
Sunday 5 8
Monday 20 15
Tuesday 30 32
Wednesday 35 30
Thursday 49 45
Friday 70 70
Saturday 15 10
Total 224 210
Average 224/7 = 32 210/7 = 30
5/32 = 0.15625
20/32 = 0.62500
30/32 = 0.93750
8/30 = 0.26667
15/30 = 0.50000
32/30 = 1.06667
0.21146
0.56250
1.00209
35/32 = 1.09375
49/32 = 1.53125
70/32 = 2.18750
15/32 = 0.46875
30/30 = 1.00000
45/30 = 1.50000
70/30 = 2.33333
10/30 = 0.33333
1.04688
1.51563
2.26042
0.40104
13 82
Solved Problem 4
b. The average daily mail volume is expected to be
230,000/7 = 32,857 pieces of mail. Using the average
seasonal factors calculated in part (a), we obtain the
following forecasts:
6,948
18,482
32,926
0.21146(32,857) =
0.56250(32,857) =
1.00209(32,857) =
34,397
49,799
74,271
13,177
230,000
1.04688(32,857) =
1.51563(32,857) =
2.26042(32,857) =
0.40104(32,857) =
Day Calculations Forecast
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Total
13 83

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