PROBABILITY and

COUNTING THEORY
PROBABILITY
The term probability refers to the study of
randomness and uncertainty. In
situations in which a number of outcomes
may occur, the theory of probability
provides methods for quantifying the
chance or likelihood associated with
various outcomes
Experiment
The process of making an observation or taking
measurement

Ex:
Tosing a die and observing the number on the
up face of the die.
Tossing a coin once, twice, or four times.
Observing the model of vehicle you see on your
next glance towards the parking lot.
How long it will take you to eat your next lunch.
Event
An outcome of an experiment. This
outcome may be:
Simple Event
ex: Heads in a coin toss)
Complex Event
ex: Heads comes out at least once in 3
consecutive tosses
Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment is the
collection of all its simple events.
Experiments and their Sample Spaces
1. Tossing of a Coin
2. Tossing Three Coins
3. Throwing Two Dice
Probability of a Simple Event
The probability of a simple event is a number
between 0 to 1 that measures the likelihood that
the event will occur when the experiment is
performed. For simple event E, we denote the
probability of E as P(E).
The probability of a simple event is usually taken
to be the relative frequency of the occurrence
from all possible outcomes.
In mathematical form:

eriment the in outcomes of number Total
occurs E event ways of number
N
x
E P
exp
) ( = =
Example
From experiment 1: Tossing of a Coin
What is the probability of A if we denote event A
= the coin turns out a head?

From experiment 2: Tossing of Three Coins
What is the probability of B, if we denote event
B= all coins turn out heads?

From experiment 3: Throwing Two Dice
What is the probability of C, if we denote event C
= The sum of the two die is 2?
Counting Theory
Counting theory refers to the body of
knowledge that uses rules and techniques to
count the number of events in a given sample
space.

Techniques:
1. Multiplication Rule
2. Addition Rule
3. Permutation
4. Combination
Multiplication Rule
If a thing can be done in m different ways,
and another thing in n different ways, then
the two things can be done in mxn
different ways. (Tiong, J.R. and Rojas,
R.A. Jr.,1999)
Examples
1. A person has 5 new shirts and 3 new pants. If an
outfit consists of a shirt and a pant, how many distinct
outfits can the person have?

2. A radio has 10 volume settings and 15 radio stations
that it can tune in to. How many settings of volume
and radio stations is possible?

3. If I draw a card out of a complete deck of playing
cards, and place this card on the table, and then draw
another card from the remaining stack and put this
card to the right of my first card, how many possible
(ordered) pairs can I have?

4. How many ways can you arrange the four people --
denoted by A,B,C,D in a row of four seats?

Addition Rule
For Mutually Exclusive events (a set of events
whose occurrence of one precludes the
occurrence of all other events.
(De Castro,1993)

Sometimes, there exists constraints in the
enumeration of events. When events can take
alternative forms but all pertain to the same
condition, then the addition rule may be invoked
Examples
1. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0,
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 if each digit can only be used once? How
many of these numbers are greater than 340?

2. Take for instance the matter of selecting books from a
bookshelf consisting of 3 textbooks, 2 fiction books and 4
non-fiction books. Suppose that one is to select 2 books
that are not of the same kind, how many selections are
possible?

3. In how many ways can three-letter nonsense words be
formed out of the letters of the word PROBABLE?

4. A group of 4 boys sit in 4 adjacent chairs. 2 of these boys
are sworn mutual enemies. How many seating
arrangements are possible if 2 boys refuse to sit together?
Permutations
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects. Each
of the selected objects are with given positions (first,
second), (leftmost, 2ndf leftmost.rightmost)

This special counting rule is useful when the order is important
in the arrangement of objects selected. For instance, codes
from an alphabet, schedule sequences, seating arrangements
along a line.

In this rule, we define n to be the total number of objects to be
sampled from, and r (n>r) is the number of slots or positions
to which the objects will be placed.

The number of ways to arrange n objects into r slots is

)! (
!
r n
n
P
r n

=
Combination
Combinations refer to the numbers to ways to
create a set of r objects from n possible objects.
This rule is useful whenever one has to find the
number of packages that can be made from a
population of size n. In counting theory, this
rule is the most commonly used one.
The number of ways to pick n objects taken r at
a time is
)! ( !
!
r n r
n
r
n
nCr

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
Examples
1. How many games can be played if there
is a pool of 4 teams and each team
plays all other teams once?

Let the teams be A,B,C,D (n=4 objects):
Examples
2. The class officers consists of a President, a vice-
president, a Secretary, a Treasurer, a PRO, and a Sgt-
at-arms. If there are 35 people in a class, how many
ways can a set of class officers be chosen?

3. Four different colored flags can be hung in a row to
make coded signals. How many signals can be made
if a signal consists of the display of one or more flags?

4. How many poker hands (set of 5 cards) are possible
from a deck of cards?

5. How many ways can a Lotto 6/42 selection be made?

6. In how many ways can you invite one or more of your
five friends to a party?

Poker Game Exercise
In Poker, a 5 card hand can assume certain
patterns and certain ranks. In how many ways can
one form the following (assuming the Jokers are
not in the mix)?
1. Royal flush
2. Straight flush
3. Quadro (Four of a kind)
4. Full house
5. Straight
6. Three of a kind
7. Two pairs
8. Two of a kind (One pair)
9. A pair of Aces

Special Counting Cases
1. Arrangement around a circle
Key: Make one seated object in the
circle fixed and permute the (n-1)
objects around this fixed reference
point. Formula: (n 1)!
Examples
1. Five people sat around a circular table. In how many
ways can they be seated?

2. A group of 3 boys and 3 girls are to sit in a circular
table. A particular couple (a boy and a girl) are to sit
beside each other. How many seating arrangements
are possible?

3. Consider 3 couples who are suppose to sit in a circular
table. If the individual couples are to sit beside each
other, how many seating arrangements are possible?

4. If the last Supper happened to be on a round table and
John sat to Jesus right and Judas to his left. In how
many ways could the 12 Apostles and Jesus have
seated around the table?
Special Counting Cases
2. Permutation of n indistinguishable objects,
of which n1 if of type 1, n2 is of type 2 and so
on for k different types



where: n = total number of indistinguishable objects to be ordered
n1 = number of similar object of type 1
n2 = number of similar object of type 2
:
:
nk = number of similar object of type k

n = n1 + n2 + + nk
! ... ! !
!
2 1 k
n n n
n
Examples
1. In how many ways can you arrange the
letters in the word ENGINEER?

2. In how many ways can you arrange 5
boys, 5 girls and 4 dogs in a line with no
restrictions on order?
Special Counting Cases
3. Partitioning of n distinguishable objects into cells of size n1,
n2, , nk





where: n = total number of distinguishable objects to be divided up
n1 = number of items in cell 1
n2 = number of items in cell 2
:
:
nk = number of items in cell k
n = n1 + n2 + + nk
! ... ! !
!
2 1 k
n n n
n
Examples
1. 15 students in a class need to be divided up
into groups of sizes 3, 5 and 7. In how many
ways can the groupings be made?

2. 15 distinct gifts need to be divided up evenly
among 4 nephews. Any remainder would be
kept. In how many ways can the 15 candies be
divided up?

3. In how many ways can 5 recruits be assigned
into three distinct combat units if each unit is to
have at least one recruit assigned?
Practice Exercises
1. How many possible arrangements can be made from using all the
letters in the word DRAGON?

2. How many 4 letter arrangements can be made from the letters of the
word DRAGON?

3. In the Philippines, a car license plate consists of 3 letters followed
by a 3-digit number. How many license plates are theoretically
possible?

4. In the Philippine Lottery, one selects 6 numbers from a pool of
42,45,49 numbers. If the selection is correct, one wins the jackpot..
How many ways can one make a Lotto selection under the systems
given? (Lotto is 42, Megalotto is 45, Superlotto is 49.)

5. Six couples are standing in a single-file line at a movie theater, in
such a way that no partner is separated. How many such lineups
are possible?

6. In how many ways can 4 boys and 4 girls sit alternately in a row of 8
seats?
Practice Exercises
7. There are 13 teams in a tournament. Each team is to play with
each other only once. What is the minimum number of days can
they all play without any team playing more than one game in any
day?

8. Three people are issued movie tickets with seat assignments,
however, it was dark and the three people decide to just sit on the
three seats without ascertaining if it is the correct numbered seat.
What is the probability that they are all sitting on the correct seats?


9. An urn contains 4 black balls and 6 white balls. What is the
probability of getting 1 black and 1 white ball on two consecutive
draws from the urn?

10. A Chinese restaurant charges a standard price for its family
dinner consisting of any four different dishes on the menu. The
restaurants advertisement claims that over 300 different family
dinners are possible. If this is true, what must be the least number
of dishes listed on the menu?

Practice Exercises
11. A bookseller has seven different textbooks on solid mechanics, five
different texts on fluid mechanics, and four on thermodynamics. She
wants to make a window display consisting of three books on each
subject, arranged in such a way that books on the same topic are
together. How many displays are possible?

12. How many 4 letter arrangements can be made from the letters of the
word ELEMENTARY?

13. A bureau (cabinet) has eight drawers of identical appearance. In
shipping the bureau to a new house, the movers took out the drawers
and afterward replaced them in different positions, with the result that
they no longer open and shut smoothly. The owner has been advised to
try arranging them until they all work. How many arrangements are
possible? Hint: 8 objects, 8 slots.

14. Suppose that ten points on a plane, no three of which lie in a straight line,
are connected to each other by lines in all possible ways.
1. How many different lines must be drawn?
2. How many different triangles will be formed, having the given points
as vertices?