MAJOR PROJECT PRESENTATION

On
ASSESSING CIVIL AVIATION SAFETY
USING FUZZY LOGIC

Under the guidance of

Dr. Somesh Kumar Sharma
Presented by:
Vikash Yadav, 11321
Yash Guleria, 11331
Sarthak Nag, 11332
Anurag Mishra, 11335
Ankesh Kapil, 11342
Ishan Sinha, 11344
Ariz Husain, 11354

CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
3. INVESTIGATION AND METHODS
4. PROPOSED PLAN FOR FURTHER WORK
5. REFERENCES

1. INTRODUCTION

Aviation Industry
Aviation deals with the design, development, operation and use
of aircraft.
Aviation industry includes all those activities, which directly

depends on transporting people and goods by air.

Classification of Aviation Industry
1. Civil Aviation
2. Military Aviation

Civil Aviation Safety

Air transport is continuously growing . It has a good relative
safety record. Public perception focuses on total accidents rather
than relative safety.
This has led to the setting of ambitious new safety targets for air
transport, whose attainment will require improved knowledge of
causes of accidents and better understanding of the effects of new
technologies and procedures.
Aviation safety is a term encompassing the theory, investigation,
and categorization of flight failures, and the prevention of such
failures through regulation, education, and training.

Challenges in Civil Aviation Safety

Runway Safety
Approach and Landing Accident Reduction
Icing/Ice Detection

Human Fatigue
Super Density Operations
Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation

Aircraft Mixed Fleet Equipage

Loss of Control In Flight

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Civil Aviation Safety: Variables explored

1. Inadequate

14. Alcohol

27. Natural sunlight

40. Types of Material used

lubrication
2. Runway temperature

53. Gear pins not removed

before departure

15. Fleet

28. Aircraft noise

41. ATC (Air traffic control)

54. Safety training/

education

3. Resource

16. Stalling

29. Control towers

42. Fitting of wrong parts

management

55. Aviation safety

awareness

4. Information gap

17. Pressure

30. Bird strike

43. Hydraulic system failure

56. Failure of joints

5. Economic factor

18. Thrust

31. Cockpit Design

44. Aircraft Velocity

57. Control surface

deflections

6. Government policies

19.Temperature

32. Snow/ice

45. PEDs (Portable electronic devices)

58. Foreign object damage

7. Procedural error

20. Terrorism

33. Wind speed

46. Improper design of parts

59. Inadequate supervision

8. Runway texture

21. Terrain

34. Ground handlers

47. Organisational environment

60. Number of engines

9. Political environment

22. Height

35. Lightening

48. Electrical wiring Discrepancies

61. Cosmic radiations

10. Engine failure

23. Air mass

36. Aircraft tyres

49. Access panels, fairings and cowling

62. Mid- air collisions

11. Thunderstorms

24. Hail

37. Wing area

50. Incorrect installation of components

63. Sensory illusions

12. Cyclone sector

25. Smoke

38. Mental stress

51. Fuel Exhaustion and Starvation

64. Communication error

13. Laser exposure

26. Rain

39. Volcanic Ash

52. Maximum take-off weight

Research Gaps
Exploring Research Gaps: research gaps table.docx
During literature review we found that there are large numbers of
factors that are responsible for flight failure and aviation accident, all
the factors are not considered collectively in any study.

We also found that there are requirements of development of new

technologies and methods to reduce the possibility of accidents or to
mitigate their effects.

During literature review we also found that Establishment of the

Construct and discriminate validity of existing measures by
correlating safety climate of safety performance.
We also found that there is a need for making better use of
governments and enterprises for gathering all cases of aircraft
incidents and accidents.

Research Problem Definition

Assessing Civil Aviation Safety using Fuzzy

Logic

Objectives Of Research Study

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.
7.

To evolve the civil aviation safety parameters by literature

synthesis.
To evaluate the safety parameters on reliability and validity norms.
To identify the critical factors from civil aviation safety parameters
using statistical refinement.
To predict the relationship among critical factors using Structural
Equation Modeling (SEM).
To develop Fuzzy Logic Model using critical factors of civil
aviation safety parameters.
To operationalize the model on aviation products (Aircraft).
To evolve comprehensive set of conclusions/ suggestions norms
regarding Civil Aviation Safety (CAS).

Methodological view of the Research Study

Identification of
list of variables
governing CAS

Evaluating and
refining
Information

Developing a
model on CAS

Hierarchical
decomposition
of risk factors

Fuzzy set
analysis

Fuzzy Model
development

Model Testing
and validation

3.INVESTIGATION AND METHODS

Research design of the study

Identification of list of variables

During exhaustive study of literature review we found 64 variables or
dimensions governing civil aviation safety. These 64 variables are
categorized under five main variables:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Environmental factors
Technical and maintenance aspects
Human aspects
Airport related aspects and
Socio & economic aspects

Information framework: INFORMATION FRAMEWORK.docx

THANK YOU

Evaluating and Refining Information

Hypotheses and conceptual model
development of the study

Model Development using SEM

Exploring high impact variables

Linear programming optimization

model

Conceptual Model Of the Study

 : Planned management of environmental factors will positively affect

civil aviation safety.
: Effectiveness of technical & maintenance factors will positively

affect civil aviation safety.

: Skills of human aspects will positively affect civil aviation safety.
: Effective airport management will positively affect civil aviation safety.
: Strategic planning of socio & economic factors will positively affect
civil aviation safety.
:Planned Management of environmental factors will positively affect
technical and maintenance factors.

: Skill of human aspects will positively affect technical &maintenance

factors.
: Effective Airport related aspects will positively affect Technical &
maintenance factors.

Factor analysis
Exploratory factor analysis
Civil aviation safety and environmental factors, technical & maintenance
factors, human aspects, airport related aspects, socio & economic aspects
are analysed.
Factor analysis of civil aviation SafetyTABLE1.docx
Factor analysis of planned management of environmental factors
TABLE2.docx
Factor analysis of effectiveness of technical and maintenance factors
TABLE3.docx
Factor analysis of skill of human aspectsTABLE4.docx
Factor analysis of strategic planning of socio and economic aspects
TABLE5.docx
Factor analysis of effective airport management related aspects
TABLE6.docx

Confirmatory factor analysis

Confirmatory Factor Analysis: TABLE7.docx

Qualitative & Quantitative Model generated

Using Structural Equation Modeling

Relationship

T-Value

Hypothesis Testing

4.75

Supported

7.98

Supported

3.89

Supported

2.89

Supported

2.57

Supported

2.34

Supported

H7: Skills of humanTechnical & maintenance factors

2.21

Supported

H8: Effective Airport management

Factors

2.12

Supported

Criteria

Indicators

H1: Planned management of environmental Factors

CAS

H2: Effectiveness of technical & maintenance factors

H3:Skills of human aspects

CAS

CAS

H4:Effective airport management related aspects

H5:Socio & Economic Aspects

CAS

CAS

H6: Planned management of environmental factors

& maintenance Factors

Technical

Technical & maintenance

Goodness of fit indices of Model

2
2
2 / df

88.00
<3

2.04

>0.9
>0.9
>0.9
>0.9
>0.9
>0.07

0.92
0.91
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.065

Fit Indices
GFI
AGFI
CFI
NFI
NNFI
RMSEA

Structural Model Results

Factors related to Geographical

& natural conditions
Factors related to Altitude

0.74
0.77
0.56

Factors related to Rain &

Snowy Weather
Technical failures

Aircraft Design Parameters

Planned management
of Environmental
Factors

0.34 (4.75)

0.19 (2.34)
0.78
0.76

Effectiveness of
Technical &
maintenance factors

0.63

Flight Failure
0.41 (7.89)

0.54

Maintenance Failures
0.14 (2.12)
Organizational policy
oriented parameters

0.65

Pilots Operational
decision error

0.68

0.21 (2.21)
0.31(3.89)

Civil Aviation
Safety

Skills of Human Aspects

0.24(2.89)

Airport related parameters

0.64

Effective Airport
management Related
Aspects

0.57
0.12(2.57)

Economic parameters

0.59
Social parameters

Accident Rate

0.72
Strategic planning
of Socio &
Economic Aspects

Qualitative & Quantitative Model generated

Using Structural Equation Modeling

Exploring High Impact Variables Governing CAS

For the present study, we only restrict ourselves to those high
impact variables which have communality greater than 0.75.

S.No. Governing
Variables

Variables emerges of
Communlity 0.75

1.

Wing area
Maximum Take off Weight
No. of Engines

Aircraft Design
Parameters

1. Aircraft velocity
2. Wing area
3. Altitude
4. Maximum Take-off

2.

Technical Failures

Aircraft Velocity
Thrust

3.

Factors related to
Altitude

Altitude

weight
5. Number of engines
6. Thrust

Model Development Using Neural Networking

These 6 high influencing variables have been further used for model
development in present study.
The general approach that is used to achieve the goal is outlined through
the following steps.

Selection of testing aircraft

Data collection

Training neural networks

Implementation of neural
networks

Mathematical Modelling
The main aim of the present work is to develop an effective
method for the civil aviation safety optimization with the aid of
the neural networking.
For civil aviation safety optimization we need some useful data
like objective function, set of situation conditions (variables) and
constraints.
The objective function
= [1+ 2 (Thrust) + 3 (Thrust) ]
[Collins, 1984].
Where, is aviation safety.
1,2 ,3 are aircraft safety functions.

Selection of Aircraft and Data Collection

A medium sized jet aircraft is selected for testing.
The basic plane characteristics of this particular aircraft are:
BOEING 767-200 (Engine GEnx- 2B67)
Maximum velocity

520 knots

Operating empty weight

470,000 lb

Maximum take-off weight

973,000 lb

Number of engines

Overall length

250 feet 2 inch

Height

63 feet 6 inch

Wing span

224 feet 7 inch

Maximum fuel capacity

242470 liters

Wing area

5200 2

Seating capacity

581 persons

Operationalizing the Model

The objective function
To maximize the function
= [1 + 2 (Thrust) + 3 (Thrust) ]

Situation Conditions (Variables)

Aircraft velocity = 175Knots- 350 Knots
Altitude = 0 ft (sea level) - 45000 ft
Thrust produced = 0- 4105 lobes
Constraints
Maximum take-off weight= 973000 lb
Number of engines= 4
Wing area= 52,000 2
Algorithm Used for Neural Training:
Levenberg-Marquart Back Propagation (LMBP)
algorithm.
Random Generators :
400 random data points

Training of Program using Neural Networking

Programs that were developed in MATLAB to perform neural net computation will
enable us to perform the following tasks:

Network training/learning,
Testing and evaluation of trained network, and
Implementation to calculate the safety of an aircraft.
Program: PROGRAM USED FOR NEURAL NETWORKING.docx

Implementation of Neural Network

Neural Network implementation process

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Regarding Information refinement Process

1. Prevention of flight failures and accident survival rate are the two
essential factors for measurement of civil aviation safety.
2. The study evolve that aircrafts flight failure prevention and accident
survival rates are influenced by five critical factors (planned management
of environmental factors, effectiveness of technical and maintenance
factors, skills of human aspects, effective airport management and
strategic planning of socio & economic factors).
3. Factors related to geographical & natural conditions, altitude and
rain & snowy weather are three important factors contributing to
environmental factor.
4. Effectiveness of technical & maintenance factor consists of three factors
aircraft design parameters, technical failures and maintenance
failures.

5. Organizational policy and pilots operational decision are two factors

contributing to human aspects.
6. Airport management aspects consists of one contributing factor.
7. Economic parameters "and social parameters are the two important
factor contributing to socio & economic aspect.

Regarding Optimization Process

1.

For the development of model for civil aviation safety 6 high

influencing variables.

2.

Three variables are considered as situation conditions (variables) i.e.

aircraft velocity, altitude and thrust produced.

3.

Three variables are considered as as constraints i.e. maximum takeoff weight, number of engines and wing area.

4.

The results show the relations between velocity versus accident rate,
altitude versus accident rate and thrust produced versus accident rate
of aircraft.

5.

The results also shows the optimized value of velocity, optimized

value of altitude and optimized value of thrust produced.

Accident rate

Velocity Vs Accident rate

Velocity Vs. accident rate using Neural Networking

Accident rate

Altitude Vs Accident rate

Altitude Vs. accident rate using Neural Networking

Accident rate

Thrust Vs Accident rate

Thrust Vs. accident rate using Neural Networking

Accident rate

Optimized Value of Velocity

Accident rate

Optimized Value of Altitude

Accident rate

Optimized value of Thrust

7. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions

It uses empirical method to evaluate the dynamics of relationship exist

among civil aviation safety parameters.

It contributes to an understanding of the nature of civil aviation safety

parameters, which is a powerful and practical means and improving
airlines knowledge and attitude towards civil aviation safety.

The importance and influence of critical factors on civil aviation safety.

The optimized values of the various parameters on the successful

application of neural network are:
The optimized value of the aircraft velocity at which accident rate is
minimized is obtained to be 319 knots which falls under validity
scale.
The optimized value of altitude is 24100 feet at which accident rate
is minimized which falls under validity scale.
The optimum thrust produced by the specific aircraft is found to be
0.8105 lobes which falls under validity scale.

7. SCOPE FOR FUTURE STUDIES

1. Those variables which are not considered in this research study can
be considered in future studies.
2. Future study could use the model developed in this study and test it
in the military aviation industry and conduct a cross industry
comparative study.

3. Instead of Artificial Neural Network, some other optimization

techniques like genetic algorithms, simulated annealing etc. can also
be used for optimization of safety of civil aviation

Publications
A. JOURNAL
1. M. Kushwaha and S.K. Sharma, Impact of Environmental Factors on Aviation
Safety, International Journal of Advances in Aerospace Science and
Applications, vol 4(1), pp. 73-78, 2014.
2. Delineating the Dynamics of Civil Aviation Safety Criteria using Structural
Equation Modeling, Aviation, Under Review (Journal of Air Transport).

B. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
1. Kushwaha, M. and Sharma, S.K. (2014) Impact of Environmental Factors on
Aviation Safety. International conference on Innovative Trends in mechanical,
material, manufacturing, automotive, automobile and aeronautical Engineering
at Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

References
[1] ZHOU Changchun, HU Dongdong, (2012). Research on inducement to
accident/incident of civil aviation in southwest of China based on grey incidence
analysis. Procedia Engineering, vol-45, pp.942 949.
[2] G.D. Edkins, (1998). The INDICATE safety program: evaluation of a method to
proactively improve airline safety performance. SAFETY SCIENCE, vol-30, pp.
275-295.
[3] Mark J. Koetse , Piet Rietveld, (2009). The impact of climate change and weather
on transport: An overview of empirical findings. Transportation Research Part D, vol14, 205221
[4] Zhang Zhaoning, Feng Shoule, Liujimin, Dai Xiaoxu, (2010). A study of safety
sequencing for aviation maintenance multi-index. IEEE, 2010 International
Conference on Computer and Communication Technologies in Agriculture
Engineering, pp. 231-234.
[5] James T. Luxhj, David W. Coit, (2006). Modelling Low Probability/High
Consequence Events: An Aviation Safety Risk Model. IEEE, pp. 215-221.

[6] S.K. Saraswati (2001). Operating environment for a civil aviation industry in
India. Journal of Air Transport Management, vol-7, pp. 127-135.
[7] Gurjeet K. Gilla, Gurvinder S. Shergill (2004). Perceptions of safety
management and safety culture in the aviation industry in New Zealand. Journal
of Air Transport Management, vol- 7, pp. 233239.
[8] Chen-Cheng Chen , Jenny Chen , Pei-Chun Lin, (2009). Identification of
significant threats and errors affecting aviation safety in Taiwan using the
analytical hierarchy process. Journal of Air Transport Management, vol- 15, pp.
261263.
[9] Olja okorilo , Slobodan Gvozdenovi , Ljubia Vasov & Petar
Mirosavljevi, (2010). Costs of unsafety in aviation. Baltic Journal on
Sustainability, vol- 16(2), pp. 188201.
[10] Cdr Andrew H. Bellenkes (2007): Contemporary issues in human factors
and aviation safety, Ergonomics, vol-50:6, pp.963-965.

Thank You