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Project Risk
Project Risk
Risk of involves two concepts:
Identify risks
Assess the risks
Develop appropriate responses to risks
Track and control the risks
The risk management process repeats
throughout every phase of the project from
Conception through Close-out
Internal
Project
Internal
Internal
Project
Technical Risk
High complexity
Low maturity
External
Project
Market conditions
Government mandate
Physical environment (weather, geography, etc.)
Labor and other resource availability
Project priorities
Customer/supplier relationships
Exchange rates
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
Risk Checklist
Likelihood
(H, M or L)
Element
Ref.
Project
Management
/authority
11
The project team is inexperienced or lacking appropriate skills for the project.
12
16
17
Project
Nature
Project
Staff
The
Customer
Risk
18
The customer requirements will not be well documented.
(e.g. poor documentation increases risk of delivered product being unsatisfactory)
Third Parties
/External bodies
22
Impact
(H, M
or L)
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
1. Identify Risks
Analogy
Checklists
SCALED,
SORT BY
POSTAGE
IBD ALL FOREIGN
CHECK
WEIGHT
BLDG. 200
BROWN
1 OZ OR
LESS
ALL OVER 1
OZ
SORT TO SIZE
MACHINE
STAMPS
POSTAGE
BUNDLE
QC FOR
SEAL,
ADDRESS
POSTAGE
PUT
INTO
BAGS
SORT TO SIZE
MACHINE
STAMPS
POSTAGE
BUNDLE
QC FOR
SEAL,
ADDRESS
POSTAGE
PUT
INTO
TRAYS
AIR MAIL
ALSO SPECIAL
GROUP MAIlNG
5-6000 PIECES
WHITE
METERED,
PUT INTO
FOREIGN AIR
MAIL BAG
BLDG. 130
BLDG. 231
ALL REMITTANCE
MAIL AFTER 6:30 PM
WHITE
BROWN
HEAVY
SEALED
BY HAND
SORT
> LB
LB
WEIGHED
SORTED INTO
1,2,4, 8 OZ.
GROUPS BY
MACHINE
PUT
INTO
TRAYS
SORT
INTO 1ST
CLASS &
AIR MAIL
METERED
, QC
CHECK
METERED,
QC CHECK
PUT INTO
BAGS
SORT INTO
POST
OFFICE
BAGS
AIR
MAIL
AIR MAIL
AFTER
6:30 PM ?
NO
OHARE
FIRST
CLASS
HEAVY
U.S. POST
YES
OFFICE
US MESSENGER PICK
UP
1. Identify risks
Brainstorming
Delphi Technique
Cause-Effect analysis
Causes
Risk sources
and hazards
Example, next slide
Effect
Outcomes,
Consequences
FUNCTIONS
MONEY
PRODUCT
DELIVERED
LATE
Probability, expressed as
Impact, expressed as
Example
RC = 0.75 x 5 = 3.75
Likelihood
(H, M or L)
Element
Ref.
Project
Management
/authority
Project
Nature
Project
Staff
The
Customer
Third Parties
/External bodies
Risk
11
The project team is inexperienced or lacking appropriate skills for the project.
12
The project team will be expected to support end-users after project completion.
( ongoing support = low risk, no support project beyond closure = high risk)
16
17
18
22
Impact
(H, M or
L)
Probability
VH
H
M
L
VL
Impact
VL
M
L
L
L
L
L
M
M
L
L
L
M
H
M
M
L
L
H
H
H
M
M
L
VH
H
H
H
M
M
RC = L x H = M (according to table)
Probability
Exposure
Functional
area
impacted
Effect:
Consequences if
risk occurs
Preventive
action to reduce
risk
11
Application
Development
75%
375
Technical
Infrastructure
90%
360
28
Technical
Infrastructure
70%
350
22
Application
Development
75%
300
Application
Development
75%
300
Difficulty in establishing
remaining first site clients.
Would force a change in
migration strategy.
27
Application
Development
70%
280
Schedule delays.
10
Application
Development
70%
280
Difficulty in establishing
remaining clients, on first site
chosen, on the ClearPath.
Application
Development
65%
260
Item No.
Impact
Risk Profile
Risk Officer
Communicate Risks
Criticality Index =
f{P(tiles lost from debris or weak bonding),
P(adjacent tiles lost),
P(burn-through given tiles lost),
P(failure of subsystems given burn-through),
P(LOV/C given failure of subsystem)}
Number and
Allocation of
Inspectors
NASAs
Management of
Contracts
Technical Pay
Scale
Hiring, Training and
Retention of Tile
Technicians
High
Visibility
Illusion of Routine
and Low Risk
Degree of
Cooperation
among
Contractors
NASA funding
Mechanism
Schedule
Pressures
NASAs Fragmentation
and Competition among
Centers
Management of
Launch Operations
Nondestructive Bond
Testing
Management of ET
and SRBs
Priorities in Tile
Maintenance
Inspection of
Technicians Work
Deciding Clearing
Of Launch
Pads
Design and
Application of
ET/SRBs Insulate
Quality of
Tile Bonding
Reentry
Maneuver
Fixing of
Tiles in
Orbit
Quality of Step
and Gap
Measurements
Modification
Of Current
Designs
Debris Damage
Loss of tile
Reentry Heating
Loss of Additional Titles
Subsystem
Malfunction
Loss of Shuttle