Thinking Critically

With Psychological
Science

PowerPoint
Presentation
by Jim Foley

2013 Worth
Publishers

Module 2: Research Strategies: How

Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions

Topics To Study
Thinking flaws to overcome: Scientific Method:
Hindsight bias
Theories and
Seeing meaning in
Hypotheses
coincidences
Overconfidence error
Gathering Psych
The Scientific attitude:
Data: Description,
Curious, skeptical, humble
Correlation, and
Critical Thinking
Experimentation/
Frequently Asked
Causation
Questions:
Experiments vs. real life
Culture and gender
Describing Psych
How do we ethically study
Data: Significant
Value judgments
Differences

Psychological Science:
Overview
Typical errors in hindsight, overconfidence,
and coincidence
The scientific attitude and critical thinking
The scientific method: theories and
hypotheses
Gathering psychological data: description,
correlation, and experimentation/causation
Describing data: significant differences
Issues in psychology: laboratory vs. life,
culture and gender, values and ethics

When our natural thinking style fails:

Hindsight
bias:
I knew it allThe coincidence
error, or
along.

Overconfid
ence error:
I am sure I
am correct.

mistakenly
perceiving order in
random events:
The dice must be
fixed because you
rolled three sixes in a
row.

Classic example:
Hindsight
Bias

after watching a
competition
(sports,
cooking),
When youif see
you
most
dontresults
make a
of
You
I knew
prediction
were
psychological
this
accepted
would
ahead
into
this
happen
college/university
research,
of time, you
you
might
mightsay,
make
that
a
postdiction:
was obvious
I
figured that
team/person
would win
because

Hindsight
bias is like a
crystal ball
that we use
to predict
the past.

Absence makes the heart

Out of sight, out of
grow fonder
mind
You cant teach an old dog
Youre never too old
new
tricks
Good fences make good
to learn
No [wo]man is an
neighbors
Birds of a feather flock
island
Opposites attract
Seek and ye
But then
why
together
These
sayings
all
do
these
uriosity
killed
the
cat
shall find
seem to make
otherinphrases
sense,
hindsight,
also
to
after
weseem
read them.
make sense?
Look before you leap
The pen is mightier than
S/He who hesitates
Actions
speak louder than
the sword
is lost
words
The grass is always greener on the other side
Theres no place like home
of the fence

Hindsight Bias
Why call it
bias?
The mind builds its
current wisdom around
what we have already
been told. We are
biased in favor of old
information.
For example, we may
stay in a bad
relationship because it
has lasted this far and
thus was meant to be.

Overconfidence
Error:
Predicting performance
We overestimate our
performance, our rate of
work, our skills, and our
degree of self-control.
Test for this: how
long do you think it
takes you to (e.g.
just finish this one
thing Im doing on the
computer
before
How
fast can
you I get
to work)? words?
unscramble
Guess, then try these:

HEGOUN ERSEGA

Overconfiden
ce stating
Error:
When
that
we
know our
Judging
something, our level
accuracy
of confidence is
usually much higher
than our level of
accuracy.
Overconfidence is a
problem in preparing
for tests. Familiarity
is not understanding
If you feel
confident that you
know a concept, try
explaining it to
someone else.

Perceiving order in random events:

Example:
The coin
tosses
that look
wrong if
there are
five heads
in a row.
Result of
this error:
reacting
to
coinciden
ce as if it
has
meaning

Danger: thinking you can

make a prediction from a
random series.
If there have been five heads
in a row, you can not predict
Why
thistime
error
that its
forhappens:
tails on the
because
next flip we have the wrong
idea about what
randomness looks like.
If one poker
player at a
table got
pocket aces
twice in a row,
is the game
rigged?

Making our ideas more accurate by

being scientific
What did Amazing
Randi do about the
claim of seeing auras?
He developed a testable
prediction, which would
it did
supportWhich
the theory
if it
not.
succeeded.
The aura-readers were
unable to locate the
aura around Randis
body without seeing
Randis body itself, so
their claim was not

Scientific Attitude Part 1: Curiosity

Definition:
always asking new
questions
That behavior Im noticing in that guy is that
common to all people? Or is it more common
when under stress? Or only common for males?

Hypothesis:
Curiosity, if
not guided by
caution, can
lead to the

Scientific Attitude Part 2:

Skepticism
Definition:
not accepting a fact as true
without challenging it; seeing
if facts can withstand
attemptsSkepticism,
to disprove
them
like curiosity, generates
questions: Is there another
explanation for the behavior I am
seeing? Is there a problem with how
I measured it, or how I set up my
experiment? Do I need to change my
theory to fit the evidence?

Scientific Attitude Part 3:

Humility
Humility refers
to
seeking the truth
rather than
trying to be
right; a
scientist needs
to be able to
accept being
wrong.

What
matters is
not my
opinion or
yours, but
the truth
nature

Think critically with psychological science

does this mean criticize?

Critical thinking refers

to a more careful style of
forming and evaluating
knowledge than simply
using intuition.

Why do I need
to work on my
thinking? Cant
you just tell me
facts about
psychology?

Along with the scientific

method, critical thinking will
help us develop more
effective and accurate ways
to figure out what makes
people do, think, and feel the

The brain is
designed for
surviving and
reproducing,
but it is not the
best tool for
seeing reality
clearly.

Consider if
there are
other
possible
explanati
ons for
the facts
or results.
See if
there was
a flaw in
how the
informatio
n was
collected.

Look for
hidden
assumpti
ons and
decide if
you agree.
Critical
thinking:
analyzing
information,
arguments, and
conclusions, to
decide if they
make sense,
rather than
simply
accepting it.

Look for
hidden
bias,
politics,
values, or
personal
connectio
ns.
Put aside
your own
assumptio
ns and
biases,
and look
at the
evidence.

How Psychologists Ask and Answer

Questions:

The Scientific Method

The scientific method is the

process of testing our ideas
about the world by:
Turning our
theories into
testable
predictions.

Gather
information
related to our
predictions.

analyzing
whether the
data fits with
our ideas.

If the data doesnt fit our ideas, then we

modify our hypotheses, set up a study or
experiment, and try again to see if the
world fits our predictions.

Some research findings

revealed by the scientific
method:
The brain can recover
from massive early
childhood brain
damage.
Sleepwalkers are not
acting out dreams.
Our brains do not
have accurate
memories locked
inside like video files.

Scientific
Method: Tools
The basics:
and Goals
Theory
Hypothesis
Operational
Definitions
Research
Replication
goals/types:
Description
Correlation
Prediction

Theory:
the
big
picture
A theory, in
the language of
science, is a set
of principles,
built on
observations
and other
verifiable facts,
that explains
some
phenomenon
and predicts its
future behavior.

Example of a
theory: All
ADHD symptoms
are a reaction to
eating sugar.

Hypotheses: informed
predictions Testable means that
A
hypothesis
is a testable
prediction
consistent
with our
theory.

the hypothesis is
stated in a way that
we could make
observations to find
out
if it would
is true. be a
What
prediction from
the All ADHD is
about sugar
theory?

One hypothesis: If a kid gets sugar, the kid will

act more distracted, impulsive, and hyper.
To test the All part of the theory: ADHD
symptoms will continue for some kids even
after sugar is removed from the diet.

Danger when testing

hypotheses:
theories can bias our

We might select only the

data, or the
interpretations of the
data, that support what
we already believe.
There are safeguards
against this:
Hypotheses designed
to disconfirm
Operational
definitions

Guide for making

useful
observations:
How can we
observations
measure ADHD
symptoms in the
previous example
in observable
terms?
Impulsivity = #
of times/hour
calling out
without raising
hand.
Hyperactivity =
# of times/hour
out of seat
Inattention = #

The next/final step in the scientific

method:

Replication

Replicating
research means
trying the methods
of a study again, but
with different
participants or
situations, to see if
the same results
You could introduce
a small change in the
happen.
study, e.g. trying the ADHD/sugar test on
college students instead of elementary
students.

Research Process: an
example

Scientific
Method: Tools
The basics:
and Goals

Theory
Hypothesis
Operational Definitions
Replication

Research goals/types:
Description
Correlation
Prediction
Causation
Experiments

Now that weve covered

this

We can move on to this

this information:
Case Study:
Research goal and strategy:
Descriptiv
observing and
Description
e
gathering
research
information to
is a
compile an in-depth
systematic,
study of one
objective
individual
The goal is
observatio
Naturalistic
to provide a
n of
Observation:
clear,
people.
gathering data about
accurate
behavior; watching
picture of
but not intervening
peoples
Surveys and
behaviors,
Interviews: having
thoughts,
other people report
and

individual in depth
Benefit:
can be a
Case
Study

source of ideas
about human nature
in general

Example: cases of
brain damage have
suggested the
function of different
parts of the brain
(e.g. Phineas Gage
seen here)
Danger:
overgeneralization
from one example;

Naturalistic

Observing
Observation
natural
behavior means
just watching
(and taking
notes), and not
trying to change
anything.
This method can
be used to study
more than one
individual, and
to find truths
that apply to a
broader

Definition: A
method of gathering
The
Survey
information about
many peoples
thoughts or
behaviors through
self-report rather
than observation.
Keys to getting useful
information:
Be careful about
the wording of
questions
Only question

effects
the results you
get from a
survey can be
changed by your
word selection.
Example:
Q: Do you
have
motivation to
study hard for
this course?
Q: Do you feel
a desire to
study hard for

What
psychology
science
mistake was
made here?

Hint #1: Harry Truman won.

Hint #2:
The
Chicago
Tribune
interviewe
d people
about Hint #3:
whom in 1948.
they
Hint
would
#4:
vote for.
by
phon
e.

Random Sampling
If you want to find out
something about men,
you cant interview
every single man on
earth.
Sampling saves time.
Random
sampling
You
can find
the ratio
a technique
forby
ofiscolors
in this jar
making
sure
thatare
making
sure
they
every
individual in a
well
mixed
population has
(randomized)
andan
then
equal
taking
a chance
sample.of
being in your

populatio
Random sampl
n
means
that e
your selection
of participants
is driven only
by chance, not
by any
characteristic.

A possible result of many

descriptive studies:
discovering a correlation

Correlation
General
Definition: an
observation that
two traits or
attributes are
related to each
other (thus, they
are co-related)
Scientific
definition: a

In a case study:
The fewer hours
the boy was
allowed to sleep,
the more
episodes of
aggression
In a he
displayed.
naturalistic
observation:
Children in a
classroom who
were dressed in
heavier clothes
were
more likely
In
a survey:
fall asleep
Thetogreater
the
than those
number
of
wearing
lighter
Facebook

Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient is a number representing how closely and
in what way two variables correlate (change together).
The direction of the correlation can be positive (direct relationship;
both variables increase together) or negative (inverse relationship: as
one increases, the other decreases).
The strength of the relationship, how tightly, predictably they vary
together, is measured in a number that varies from 0.00 to +/- 1.00.

Guess the Correlation Coefficients

Height
Height vs.
shoe size

Years in
school vs.
years in jail

Close to
+1.0

Close to
-1.0

(strong
positive

(strong
negative

vs.
intelligen
ce
Close to
0.0
(no
relationship,
no

If we find a correlation,
what conclusions can we
draw from it?
Lets say we find the
following result:
there is a positive
correlation between
two variables,
ice cream sales, and
rates of violent
crime

Correlation is not
Causation!
People who
floss more
regularly have
less risk of heart
disease.
People with
bigger feet tend
to be taller.

If this data is
from a survey,
can we
conclude that
flossing might
prevent heart
disease? Or that
people
with
Does that
heart-healthy
mean having
habits
bigger also
feet floss
regularly?
causes
height?

If self-esteem correlates with depression,

there are still numerous possible causal links:

 Testing the
theory
that
So how do we find out about
causation?
ADHD = sugar:
By experimentation
removing sugar
from the diet of
children with
Experimenta
ADHD to see if it
tion:
makes a
manipulating
difference
one factor in
The
a situation to
depression/selfdetermine its
esteem
example: trying
effect
interventions that
improve selfesteem to see if

The Control Group

If we manipulate a variable in an experimental group of
people, and then we see an effect, how do we know the
change wouldnt have happened anyway?
We solve this problem by comparing this group to a
control group, a group that is the same in every way
except the one variable we are changing.
using
Example: two groups of childrenBy
have
ADHD, but
random
onlydo
one
group stops eating refined
sugar.
How
make

sure the
control group
is really
identical in
every way to
the
experimental
group?

assignment:
randomly
selecting some
study
participants to
be assigned to
the control
group or the

To clarify two similarRandom

Random
sounding
terms
sampling is
assignment
how you get
of
a pool of
participants
research
to control or
participants
experiment
that
al groups is
represents
how you
the
control all
population
variables
youre trying First you sample,except the
to learn
then you sort one youre
(assign) manipulating.
about.

Placebo effect
How do we make sure that the
experimental group doesnt
experience an effect because they
expect to experience it?
How can we make sure both groups
expect to get better, but only one
gets the real intervention being
studied?
Placebo effect:

experimental
effects that are
caused by
expectations
about the
intervention

Control groups may

be given a placebo
an inactive
substance or other
fake treatment in
place of the
experimental
treatment.
The control group
is ideally blind
to whether they
are getting real or
fake treatment.
Many studies are
double-blind
neither
participants nor
research staff

Naming
the
variables
The variable we are able to manipulate
independently of what the other variables
are doing is called the independent
variable
(IV).
The variable
we expect to experience a
change which depends on the
manipulation were doing is called the
dependent variable (DV).

If we test the ADHD/sugar hypothesis:

Sugar = Cause = Independent Variable
ADHD = Effect = Dependent Variable

The other variables that might have an

effect on the dependent variable are
confounding variables.

Did more hyper kids get to choose to be in the

sugar group? Then their preference for sugar

Filling in our definition of

experimentation
An experiment is a type
of research in which the
researcher carefully
manipulates a limited
number of factors (IVs)
and measures the impact
*in psychology,
on other factors (DVs).

you would be
looking at the
effect of the
experimental
change (IV) on a

Correlation vs. causation:

the breastfeeding/intelligence
question
Studies have found that children
who were breastfed score higher
on intelligence tests, on
average, than those who were
bottle-fed.
Can we conclude that breast
feeding CAUSES higher
intelligence?
Not necessarily. There is at least
one confounding variable:
genes. The intelligence test
scores of the mothers might be
higher in those who choose
breastfeeding.
So how do we deal with this
confounding variable? Hint:
experiment.

Ruling out confounding

variables:
experiment with random
An actual study in the text: women were
assignment
randomly selected to be in a group in
which breastfeeding was promoted

+6
points

Summary of the types of

Research

Comparing Research Methods

Research
Method
Descriptiv
e

Basic
Purpose
To observe and
record
behavior

Correlation To detect
al
naturally
occurring
relationships;
to assess how
well
one
Experimen To
explore
variable
tal
cause-effect
predicts
another

How
Conducte
Perform
d
case
studies,
surveys, or
Compute
naturalistic
statistical
observation
association,
s
sometimes
among
survey
Manipulate
responses
one
or
more
factors;
randomly
assign
some to

What is
Weaknesses
Manipula
Nothing
No control of
ted
variables;
single cases
may be
Nothing
Does
not
misleading
specify causeeffect; one
variable
predicts
another but not
The
Sometimes
this doesfor
not
independe possible
mean oneor
nt
practical
variable(s causes
ethical the
other
)
reasons;
results may
not generalize

Drawing conclusions from

data:
are
the results
useful?
After finding
a

How to achieve reliability:

Nonbiased sampling: Make
sure the sample that you studied
is a good representation of the
population you are trying to learn
about.
Consistency: Check that the
data (responses, observations) is
Is the difference
not too widely varied to show
When
have you found statistically
reliable: can we
a clear pattern.
significant
difference (e.g.
use this result to
Many data
points: and
Dont
try to
between
experimental
control
generalize or to
generalize from just a few cases,
groups)?
predict the
or responses.
instances,
future behavior
When your data is reliable AND
of the broader
pattern in our data
that shows a
difference between
one group and
another, we can
ask more
questions.

FAQ about Psychology

Laboratory
vs. Life

Diversity

Question: How can a result from an

experiment, possibly simplified and
performed in a laboratory, give us any
Answer:
Byreal
isolating
insight
into
life? variables and
studying them carefully, we can
discover general principles that might
apply to all people.
Question: Do the insights from
research really apply to all people, or
do the factors of culture and gender
override these general principles of
Answer: Research can discover human
behavior?
universals AND study how culture and
gender influence behavior. However, we
must be careful not to generalize too
much from studies done with subjects

FAQ about Psychology

Ethics

Ethics

Question: Why study animals? Is it

possible to protect the safety and
dignity of animal research subjects?
Answer: Sometimes, biologically
related creatures are less complex than
humans and thus easier to study. In
some cases, harm to animals generates
important insights to help all creatures.
The value of animal research remains
Question:
How do we protect the
extremely controversial.
safety and dignity of human subjects?
Answer: People in experiments may
experience discomfort; deceiving
people sometimes yields insights into
human behavior. Human research
subjects are supposedly protected by
guidelines for non-harmful

FAQ about Psychology

The impact
of Values

Question: How do the values of

psychologists affect their work? Is it
possible
perform value-free
Answer:toResearchers
values affect
research?
their choices of topics, their
interpretations, their labels for what
they see, and the advice they generate
from their results. Value-free research
remains an impossible ideal.